“It’s not often that we say ‘it rocks’ when analyzing a consumer device trend. But the findings of our latest ChangeWave cell phone survey invite extremes to describe the startling impact the Apple iPhone is having on the cellular industry,” Paul Carton, ChangeWave Alliance, reports for SeekingAlpha.
Carton reports, “Our survey of 3,489 Alliance members – conducted April 4-10 – reveals exceptionally high levels of excitement surround the iPhone’s upcoming release. Nearly one-in-10 respondents (9%) say they are likely to buy the new iPhone once it becomes available in June. Another 7% say they are likely to buy the iPhone as a gift for someone else.”
“These are big numbers, especially when you consider the worldwide market for cell phones is around 1 billion and Apple’s goal is to get to 1% of that market in year one – which would mean selling about 10 million phones,” Carton reports.
Carton reports, “Clearly the current results, while similar to our January survey findings, provide strong evidence that Apple should exceed its iPhone sales goals for 2008 – providing the device lives up to consumer expectations.”
“To gain a full sense of the iPhone’s looming impact on manufacturers, we compared their current market share in our survey with planned consumer purchases for the next six months,” Carton reports.
“Currently, Motorola (MOT) (33%) remains the leading manufacturer among Alliance cell phone owners, with LG (LPL) (15%) second and Nokia (NOK) (14%) third. But when you look at planned future buying the iPhone’s impact becomes clear,” Carton reports. “For the second-consecutive survey, Motorola’s future share among consumers has seen a dramatic decline – falling from 33% last October to just 17% currently. Nokia has also fallen from 11% to 9% during this period. We see the same pattern among service providers…”
Full article, with informative charts and graphs and more details, here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Nathan” for the heads up.]
MacDailyNews Note: Apple’s stated goal is to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. iPhone is set to begin shipping in June. 10 million is a lot of little Mac tablets – oh, sorry, “iPhones” – to have running around out there, but we think Apple will do much better than that before the end of 2008.
Microsoft CEO Ballmer laughs at Apple iPhone on CNBC-TV (January 17, 2007):
I’ve always said that Apple’s 1% claim was sandbagging.
Methinks the iPhone will certainly become a lot of folks’ first Apple product. Very much in the great Trojan horse tradition.
“among Alliance cell phone owners” what is alliance?
Count me in.
MW- member
The iPhone is definately going to BIG. I’m amazed at the number of people I personally know, who don’t own an iPod or Mac … or even know the difference between a DELL and MAC who plan to buy an iPhone. People from all walks of life, secretaries, attorneys, real estate agents, students, cops… These people are as hyped about it as I am… and I’m a BIG fan of Apple!
Trojan Horse for introducing the Mac to consumers. Trojan condom for its effect on competitors. They’ll need a limited ribbed version just for the Microsoft executives to have something to enjoy.
Laugh Ballmer, laugh!
We’ll see you later next year…
I’m in for Gen. 2. 8GB is just not enough space for my music, and NAND flash prices are falling through the floor. Is it too much to hope for a capacity bump by June?
I asy it again: Apple marketing screwed up.
If Apple had named this device the Mac Mobile, a new class of ultra mobile computer, then all of these sales and usage statistics (e.g. web browser) would be associated with the Mac OS X market share. The Mac would outsell all other brands of computer.
The Mac, with OS X, scales from handheld to enterprise class computer.
I think the cell phone market has finally reached near saturation. People are now looking at features instead of fashion. Much like Windows was adopted by the masses due to lack of knowledge of alternatives, the iPhone is entering the market at the moment when the market is becoming aware of existing products lack of functionality.
Apple’s biggest problem is going to be making enough of them. Oh what a terrible position to be in.
I’m with ™. I don’t know what I’m talking about EITHER!
my greatest fear is that Apple is able to keep the iPhone in supply. A product can hurt itself if too scarce. I sure hope Apple has a lot of these jewels ready to fill the demand.
The should have called it The Real Origami Not That Fake POS Microsoft Flop.
That way even the Windows FanBois would understand what it was.
And this hysteria is even before anyone has gotten their hands on one. After that happens and people see all their friends and yes, business coworkers with one, the iPhone will be a must have. Boldly speaking, I predict over 50 million sold by the end of 2008, barring no glitches in design or the volume mass production process. After I actually held the Razr, I wanted one, and the iPhone blows the Razr to smithereens. The widescreen coverflow iPod portion just sets everything in concrete and I love the fact that the phone and iPod are visually hidden from each other.
As with most every product, battery life
will be the issue, as charging my current video iPod is still too often for me. With a paid cellular service, good battery life will become a crucial factor.
June is a great release time, because by the middle of December, it will be the number 1 fad on the planet, just in time for Christmas. The Leopard put back may be seen as smart later when in hindsight, as releasing both in the same month would muddy the waters for both.
…yeah, yeah, yeah, the iPhone is going to be real popular, yada, yada, yada …the neighborhood bully is going to lay off my Nikes now and start frisking me for my multi-touch phone. Keeping it in my ass has occurred to me …..it would lose some of its appeal ..but if Mr. O’Ballmer would be willing to send me one of those Vista Capable Stickers I think that would provide a better theft deterent. This could provide Microsoft with an opportunity to get into the security business.
Battery life: It wouldn’t surprise me if the iPhone stopped playing music/video when the battery was down to say, 30% capacity. Or at least stop and ask if you want to continue playing. That would at least partially address the battery issue… assuming there is one.
Did Ballmer just say they have 25 percent of the HIGH end of the market with the Zune? Was this the first week it was out? My gosh, I break more iPods in a day than Microsoft sells in a month!
Ballmer does have me beat on the number of executive chairs through walls per month, though, I have to concede that.
Bozo
S.
I hope a few major news outlets have the cajones to re-air that interview with Ballmer laughing at the iPhone a few months after its release. I seriously doubt it which is why this is an example of YouTube being useful. The spastic look of incredulity, the fake laugh, the unrelenting mockery – classic Ballmer.
Andy asked, “”among Alliance cell phone owners” what is alliance?”
http://www.changewave.com/Alliance/seeking.htm?SPONSORCD=95000
™…
While I agree with what the iPhone IS… a Mac Mobile. I think that by naming the iPhone Mac Mobile, it would have limited it’s appeal.
Not everyone uses or wants to use a Mac.
However, EVERYONE uses a phone.
The iPhone name by it’s nature gives it a broader appeal.
Apple is also using their classic strategy:
Under-promise, OVER deliver.
Don’t tell or promote every feature. These will be discovered, raved about and ooze out over time, creating lots of BUZZ. The iPod evolved that way and look where it stands now!
@Ballmer re: Zune:
“We’re in the game, we’re driving our innovation hard”
I never get tired of this level of humour. Priceless.
I think the iPhone is named perfectly. If it were a mobile computer, there would be a whole other set of expectations that would be very hard to meet. The iPhone exceeds most people’s expectations of a phone.
Remember what Ballmer said. Zune has 20% of the high end player market and is selling millions and millions and millions of phones EACH YEAR! Steve Jobs must be insane to go up against this guy.
Ballmer throws chairs around because they smell really bad after his fat sweaty ass has been jiggling around on them.