ChangeWave: Apple rocks cell phone industry; 9% likely to buy iPhone in June

Apple Store“It’s not often that we say ‘it rocks’ when analyzing a consumer device trend. But the findings of our latest ChangeWave cell phone survey invite extremes to describe the startling impact the Apple iPhone is having on the cellular industry,” Paul Carton, ChangeWave Alliance, reports for SeekingAlpha.

Carton reports, “Our survey of 3,489 Alliance members – conducted April 4-10 – reveals exceptionally high levels of excitement surround the iPhone’s upcoming release. Nearly one-in-10 respondents (9%) say they are likely to buy the new iPhone once it becomes available in June. Another 7% say they are likely to buy the iPhone as a gift for someone else.”

“These are big numbers, especially when you consider the worldwide market for cell phones is around 1 billion and Apple’s goal is to get to 1% of that market in year one – which would mean selling about 10 million phones,” Carton reports.

Carton reports, “Clearly the current results, while similar to our January survey findings, provide strong evidence that Apple should exceed its iPhone sales goals for 2008 – providing the device lives up to consumer expectations.”

“To gain a full sense of the iPhone’s looming impact on manufacturers, we compared their current market share in our survey with planned consumer purchases for the next six months,” Carton reports.

“Currently, Motorola (MOT) (33%) remains the leading manufacturer among Alliance cell phone owners, with LG (LPL) (15%) second and Nokia (NOK) (14%) third. But when you look at planned future buying the iPhone’s impact becomes clear,” Carton reports. “For the second-consecutive survey, Motorola’s future share among consumers has seen a dramatic decline – falling from 33% last October to just 17% currently. Nokia has also fallen from 11% to 9% during this period. We see the same pattern among service providers…”

Full article, with informative charts and graphs and more details, here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Nathan” for the heads up.]

MacDailyNews Note: Apple’s stated goal is to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. iPhone is set to begin shipping in June. 10 million is a lot of little Mac tablets – oh, sorry, “iPhones” – to have running around out there, but we think Apple will do much better than that before the end of 2008.

Microsoft CEO Ballmer laughs at Apple iPhone on CNBC-TV (January 17, 2007):


  1. The iPhone is definately going to BIG. I’m amazed at the number of people I personally know, who don’t own an iPod or Mac … or even know the difference between a DELL and MAC who plan to buy an iPhone. People from all walks of life, secretaries, attorneys, real estate agents, students, cops… These people are as hyped about it as I am… and I’m a BIG fan of Apple!

  2. I asy it again: Apple marketing screwed up.

    If Apple had named this device the Mac Mobile, a new class of ultra mobile computer, then all of these sales and usage statistics (e.g. web browser) would be associated with the Mac OS X market share. The Mac would outsell all other brands of computer.

    The Mac, with OS X, scales from handheld to enterprise class computer.

  3. I think the cell phone market has finally reached near saturation. People are now looking at features instead of fashion. Much like Windows was adopted by the masses due to lack of knowledge of alternatives, the iPhone is entering the market at the moment when the market is becoming aware of existing products lack of functionality.

  4. my greatest fear is that Apple is able to keep the iPhone in supply. A product can hurt itself if too scarce. I sure hope Apple has a lot of these jewels ready to fill the demand.

  5. And this hysteria is even before anyone has gotten their hands on one. After that happens and people see all their friends and yes, business coworkers with one, the iPhone will be a must have. Boldly speaking, I predict over 50 million sold by the end of 2008, barring no glitches in design or the volume mass production process. After I actually held the Razr, I wanted one, and the iPhone blows the Razr to smithereens. The widescreen coverflow iPod portion just sets everything in concrete and I love the fact that the phone and iPod are visually hidden from each other.
    As with most every product, battery life
    will be the issue, as charging my current video iPod is still too often for me. With a paid cellular service, good battery life will become a crucial factor.

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