The Inquirer: Microsoft is in deep trouble and now it is going to die

Apple Store“With two overlapping events, Microsoft admitted what we have been saying all along, Vista, aka Windows MeII [Me 2 or II], is a joke that no one wants. It did two unprecedented things this week that frankly stunned us,” Charlie Demerjian writes for The Inquirer.

Demerjian writes, “Dell announced that it would be offering XP again on home PCs… Never before has anyone backpedalled on this, to do so would earn you the wrath of Microsoft.”

“But Dell just did. This means that MeII sales are at least as bad as we think, the software and driver situation is just as miserable, and Dell had no choice but to buck the trend. If anyone thinks this is an act of atonement for foisting such a steaming pile on us, think again, it doesn’t care about the consumer,” Demerjian writes.

Demerjian writes, “What happened is the OEMs revolted in the background and forced Microsoft’s hand. This is a big neon sign above MeII saying ‘FAILURE’. Blink blink blink. OK, MeII won’t fail, they have OEMs whipped and threatened into a corner, it will sell, but you can almost hear the defectors marching toward Linux. This is a watershed.”

MacDailyNews Take: Funny, we don’t hear or see any signs of consumers marching towards Linux. Dell offering it, maybe, but who’s buying? We do see a few what-we-hope-are-early ripples of people dumping Windows for Mac OS X. Maybe that will become a wave if Apple plays its cards right. Linux for servers, no problem. Linux for consumers, no chance. Demerjian can dream, but that doesn’t make it reality. Million of copies of WIndows Vista have walked out of Best Buys et al. since release in the hands of consumers who, frankly, don’t know any better. Forget Linux, soon Windows Vista will eclipse sales of Mac OS X’s all-time totals. That doesn’t make Vista a better OS than Mac OS X any more than it makes Britney Spears a better composer than Beethoven.

Demerjian continues, “The other equally monumental MeII failure? Gates in China launching a $3 version of bundled MeII. Why is this not altruism? Well, it goes back to piracy and how it helped enforce the MS monopoly… If you fit Microsoft’s somewhat convoluted definition of poor, it still wants to lock you in, you might get rich enough to afford the full-priced stuff someday. It is at a dangerous crossroads, if its software bumps up the price of a computer by 100 per cent, people might look to alternatives.”

“Microsoft has lost its ability to twist arms, and now it is going to die. It can’t compete on level ground, so is left with backpedalling and discounts of almost 100 times,” Demerjian writes. “What we are seeing is an unprecedented shift of power. It is also an unprecedented admission of failure. And the funniest part about the moves made? They are the wrong things to do. Microsoft is in deep trouble.”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Thomas” for the heads up.]

MacDailyNews Take: Come on, Charlie, you can say it: “Apple Macintosh.” The solution is Apple Macintosh, as it has been for over 20 years. Disregarding Demerjian’s pie-in-the-sky Linux dreams, we agree that Microsoft is in trouble; they have been for some time.

Related articles:
Analyst Ehrenberg: Dripping, gloppy Apple envy seizes Microsoft – April 20, 2007
Microsoft giving away Windows, Office in effort to extend Dark Ages of Personal Computing – April 19, 2007
Forget VIsta: Beleaguered Dell brings back Windows XP, people also asking for Mac OS X – April 19, 2007
Mossberg’s spring PC buyers guide: Microsoft’s Windows Vista disappoints, so get an Apple Mac – April 19, 2007
Analyst Ehrenberg: Microsoft’s Xbox 360: Failure-in-a-Box – April 18, 2007
Apple takes dead aim at Microsoft’s Windows Vista in latest ‘Get a Mac’ ad (with video) – February 06, 2007
Bill Gates has lost his mind: calls Apple liars, copiers; slams Mac OS X security vs. Windows – February 02, 2007
Net Applications: Apple’s Mac market share continues rise, hits 6.22% in January 2007 – February 01, 2007
Bill Gates lists Microsoft ‘innovations’ that Apple has offered Mac users for years – January 30, 2007
Apple larger than Microsoft by 2010? – January 29, 2007
Gates bristles over Vista, Mac OS X comparisons – January 29, 2007
Microsoft about to lose the software business just as IBM lost the PC business in ‘80s – July 26, 2006
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ ultimate goal: ‘to take back the computer business from Microsoft’ – June 16, 2005
Apple vs. Microsoft rivalry heats up again – January 10, 2005

91 Comments

  1. Microsoft is in trouble without question…but it’s going to a LONG time until they die. They are sitting on a PLANET (not just a mountain) of cash. So…it’s gonna be 10 years minimum before they are really fading hard…and a lot can happen in 10 years.

  2. All the money in the this world can’t save Microsoft. I’m seeing people I meet at the local computer shops finally giving Apple some respect as before they would belittle Apple. Amazing.

  3. This failure in not unprecedented, not even close.

    This guy clearly does not know history (oil tycoons, railroads anyone?), but let us just keep it at a technology-based unprecedented, now we’ve narrowed the scope.

    IBM, the monster of monsters, fell greatly to Redmond, with a brief blip of Apple in the early desktop growth years. IBM falling like a rock may be where Redmond is headed, but that is still not clear yet.

    When Leopard hits the streets, and offers WinXP and Vista apps. to run within OS X with narry a hick-up, that may be yet another blow to Redmond they did not see coming, nor know how to stop (outside a massive attack of lawyers who will not win the day).

  4. Our troll of the month “Huh?” will soon be here that Vista is not a FLOP but a huge success because in 4 months, err, no wait 5 months or 6… maybe 7 but WHO CARES will tell our troll: “in 8 months Vista will have sold more copies than Mac OS X THENCE it is a RESOUNDING success!!!”

    Too bad that “Huh?” does not work with Microsoft: it would be good for Apple.

    Luckily we still have Ballmer to fill in the idiots gaps in Redmond.

  5. The difference between Microsoft and other previous downfalls is that in other cases the leaders had market share dominance only. In this case Microsoft has such a huge amount of cash they can literally give the products away for years.
    Will that save them? No…but as I mentioned above…

    A lot can happen in 10 years.

    What if Steve Jobs has his cancer come back and he suddenly dies?
    What if Apple makes a misstep attempting to go into corporate environments and
    they get hacked badly?
    What if they produce a new product or two (asteroid) and they suffer mulitple market failures (how’s Apple Hi-Fi selling?)
    Apple is not invulnerable either…

    and all this has to be placed in the context of the world economy and political machinations that operate around it. If the US heads into a severe slump will it be the higher priced computers and electronic toys that sell? Or will they suffer too.
    Things change.

    Let’s keep hoping they change the right way for Apple.

  6. Let’s not forget what a dog OSX was when it first came out. Or the years of a lack of native apps and drivers for years. Or the resistance that a large percentage of OS 9 users put up before making the switch. Or the fact that the Finder, even in 10.4, needs a serious makeover.

    It’s easy to be smug now that OSX has matured.

  7. Microsoft is hard to kill, it most likely will die a slow death.

    Opps, guess my Apple fuming got me in trouble.

    Soorrrryyy.

    People get upset when they find out they have been browsing with a insecure program.

  8. Microsoft finally priced correctly Windows: $3

    What they did not say is that in China one can have a mail-in rebate as well!!!

    AHHUHAUHAHHEHAHOEHAUHAUHAUHAHUHAUHAEHAHUHUH

    Vista, even for free it is not palatable.

    FFFFFFFFFFFFLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP

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