Analyst: iPod sales may hit 500 million, Apple TV emerging as ‘a sleeper hit’

Apple Store“The addressable market for Apple’s iPod digital music players is so broad that the company will handily eclipse the 350 million unit sales milestone achieved by Sony with its Walkman players during the 80’s and 90’s before the first signs of fizzle set in, researchers at JMP Securities say,” Slash Lane reports for AppleInsider.

Lane reports, “Ingrid Ebeling, an analyst at the firm, made the comments in a research note distributed to clients on Wednesday [wrote], ‘During Sony’s 15-year reign with the Walkman, the company sold over 350 million units, and we believe that Apple’s addressable market over time will exceed this number given the upgrade and replaceable nature of iPods as well as the overriding trend of consumers’ increasing use of digital media… The net takeaway is that this is a product category that is far from saturated, and we believe well over 500 million units will be sold before the product category hits maturation.'”

Lane reports, “In her note to clients, Ebeling also remained bullish on he prospect of Apple TV emerging as ‘a sleeper hit,’ saying checks indicate that the $300 wireless media hub is off to a strong start. ‘So far, reviews have been generally positive, and we believe our forecast of 1.1M units through [fiscal 2008] could be conservative, representing only 2 percent of the broadband Internet households in the US,’ she wrote.”

Full article, with comments regarding Mac sales, here.

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  1. @Subculture – great idea, genius, now instead of paying for cable for 500 channels you pay to view every show using iTunes and AppleTV. And you have to pay to store them on your computer (each show eats up hard drive space to store them all)…whooops, time to buy another hard drive…
    Oh and good luck watching live sports via AppleTV and the news and….

  2. Yup, I think cable and satellite, as we know and despise them, are going to start to slowly fade, then just suddenly disappear.

    I, and several 100 million others, simply do not want to pay for 150 channels so that we can watch the 15 that we actually want – period.

  3. eddie, not all of us are addicted to TV. if i didn’t have kids i would do the same and end up spending less a year than i spend a month right now. plus, you get the tivo “whenever i want” benefits and the storage is far large so you can keep everything rather than trying to pick what you want to delete.

    ….and if they offer a cheaper subscription model for TV shows in the future, then what?

    magic word “less” which is sometimes more.

  4. Will a purchase of an iPhone be considered an iPod purchase for the sake of counting toward the 500 million units milestone?

    MW = front, as in “Apple will stay way out in front no matter how they count the sales.”

  5. Yeah, Zune and Vista were off to a fast starts as well – bought by fanatics. It’s way too early to judge TV. If you go into stores, the TV sections are relatively empty. I don’t think this a bad sign. It will take time for the word to spread.

  6. Maybe the cable networks will finally wake up from their delusional stupor and offer more flexibility in the way they force feed you programming you don’t want, then over-charge you for the stuff you do want. The satellite companies are at least half way there but they have a ways to go as well.

    Why do I have to get “free” MTV and VH1 and the Country Music Channel when I would rather not have any of them. Putting together a custom channel line up should not really be that hard in 2007.

    Except for sports and news, how many shows do you HAVE to watch live? (And no, I don’t want to ever watch the Golf channel live or prerecorded.)

  7. The whole “force fed” nature of cable and satellite is why I don’t have either. Why pay $30+ a month when I only watch a few shows? It’s better to buy individual shows or download them and then you can choose whether you keep them, burn them to DVD, or buy the DVD set later.

  8. The stock isn’t down because of hype about Apple. Many stocks are down, likely due to skittishness about CitiGroup’s announcement. People and major investors take cash out of the market on news that may be suggestive of economic slowdown.

  9. The main reason I have cable is not to watch TV, but to have a decent broadband connection. Until we get another way to get broadband which is more reliable and faster than DSL, I am stuck with cable and their high fees. Internet with no premium channels from Comcast is about $100.

  10. marcos,

    yes I agree, but the ‘shorts’ can only manipulate AAPL for very ‘short’ periods of time.

    Barring some disaster – for example a collapse of the U.S. economy – AAPL is going to go up; and I’m convinced it’ll double or even treble in the next two years.

  11. @Mr. Peabody: “I, and several 100 million others, simply do not want to pay for 150 channels so that we can watch the 15 that we actually want – period.”

    No, you are paying for the 15 you actually want. All the other 135 are free.
    And how is AppleTV going to allow you to watch those 15 channels you want and are you going to enjoy paying $2-$10 to watch each show from your 15 channels (for example, 4 shows a day via iTunes X $2 each = $8 a day X 30 days per month = minimum $240 a month to watch 4 shows a day).
    And I sure hope you like to waste time going to iTunes everyday to select, pay, download, etc, etc and then watch via AppleTV.
    Oh, yeah, don´t forget to buy another hard drive or two to store all those digital videos you paid for.
    Guess you don´t like to watch the news, talk shows, sports when they are shown on TV.

    @shen: “….and if they offer a cheaper subscription model for TV shows in the future, then what?”
    And if pigs had wings they could fly.
    And blaming your kids for having to have cable TV service….lame. If you didn´t have kids you wouldn´t have to buy as much food or drive your car as much or clean the house as much or read books to them or play with them or take them to the doctor or school. Oh, what a hassle and financial burden children are. Have you thought of putting them up for adoption? Simplify your life, reduce your money troubles.

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