“Apple has finally begun shipping pre-orders of its Apple TV wireless set-top, according to news reports. The device can stream media stored on your PC to your TV including music, pictures and 720p High-Definition video,” Phillip Swann writes for TV Predictions. “The company has set the price at $299, but I’m here to tell you that it will ultimately have trouble giving them away.”
Swann writes, “Yes, Apple TV will bomb — and here’s why:”
1. Limited Uses
2. Set-Top Fatigue
3. Compatibility & Confusion
4. Inconvenient
Swann writes, “So, although the tech-intelligentsia will slobber over Apple TV and call it the Second Coming, Apple TV will fail to reach beyond the cultish Mac audience, probably topping off at about three million homes.”
Full article, Think Before You Click™, here.
Good news for Apple! This is the strongest indication yet that Apple TV will be a raging hit as Swann has proven to be uniformly wrong when it comes to understanding Apple products and predicting their success.
Read Swann’s previous idiotic predictions:
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005
Related articles:
Mossberg hands-on with Apple TV: ‘beautiful design, easy-to-use, classic Apple: simple and elegant’ – March 21, 2007
Apple TV projected to surpass TiVo, Netflix – March 20, 2007
Former Microsoft ‘Enthusiast Evangelist’ Gartenberg looks at impact of Apple TV – March 20, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 20, 2007
Apple shares rise on positive Apple TV analyst comments – March 19, 2007
Analysts: Apple to ride Apple TV + iTunes ‘Trojan horse’ into living room – March 19, 2007
Will Apple TV be even bigger than iPhone? – March 19, 2007
Apple adds 720p Apple TV high-definition export mode to QuickTime – March 19, 2007
Apple planning to buy Miglia to add DVR capabilities to iTunes and Apple TV? – March 17, 2007
Miglia debuts TVMAX+ Mac PVR, TV tuner, content provider for iPod, iPhone or Apple TV – March 16, 2007
Piper Jaffray expects 2 million Apple TV units to be sold in 2007 – March 16, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 15, 2007
Solution providers expect Apple TV to be hot seller – March 15, 2007
Apple TV could help kill traditional TV ads – March 14, 2007
Apple TV manufacturing ramp up to begin as early as today – March 12, 2007
Why Apple TV is more important than iPhone – March 12, 2007
Apple TV concept may eventually catch on with consumers – March 12, 2007
Apple CFO talks Apple TV, iPhone, Leopard and retail (link to full transcript) – March 07, 2007
PC Magazine: Why Apple TV matters – February 23, 2007
Bear Stearns: Apple TV and iPhone have changed the Apple story for the better – February 21, 2007
Deutsche Bank: Apple TV could take 30% of set-top box market within a few years – February 21, 2007
How do Apple TV and Elgato’s EyeTV work together? – February 16, 2007
Apple embraces casual gaming; iPhone, Apple TV to join iPod as gaming devices – February 09, 2007
Former GM of Microsoft’s Xbox Live Arcade: Apple TV to become video game console – February 08, 2007
ZDNet’s Graham: Apple TV hits a number of sweet spots, poised to make a big impact – January 25, 2007
Is Apple out to kill cable television? – January 25, 2007
RUMOR: Apple TV sales blowing away Apple’s internal expectations – January 25, 2007
Steve Jobs: Apple TV is the ‘DVD player for the 21st century’ – January 22, 2007
Apple TV beats out iPod, hits top spot on Apple Store sales chart – January 19, 2007
Report: first batch of 100,000 Apple TVs to ship this month – January 11, 2007
Steve Jobs moves to control the living room with Apple TV – January 10, 2007
Analyst Bajarin: Apple’s iPhone and Apple TV are industry game changers – January 09, 2007
Apple premieres Apple TV: movies, TV shows, music & photos on your big screen TV – January 09, 2007
RUMOR: Apple may enter video game market – December 05, 2006
Could Apple become king of game consoles? – September 26, 2006
And I’m here to tell you that if Apple were giving them away, I’d have five Apple TVs all over the house!
And yet, he’s still paid to write…. what happened to accountability and performance-based employment?
I’m not convinced that the Apple TV will be a rousing success right away, but I highly doubt that they’ll bomb though either. They’ll certainly be more successful in the market place than those lousy Media Center PCs have been. Those have truly bombed…
What he fails to realize is that Apple knows how many videos it is selling online, especially to the same account.
Apparantly Apple can see exactly how much market potential there is.
The iTV doesn’t necessary have to be as successful as the iPod, just look at the POS called the iPod Boombox.
Apple sold enough of those in order for it to be profitable and that’s all that counts.
Some products Apple makes is not designed to rule the roost in it’s market, but to serve the advancement of Apple in the living room.
this “swanni” guy is clearly an ass
he is just trolling for hits on his website so he can continue to milk web ads
has he tested the product ?
why release this “opinion” now ?….because he wants to piggyback off of Mossberg’s real story and be picked up in the mainstream press as the opposing viewpoint
low life web scum
> what happened to accountability and performance-based employment?
Because in his line of business controversy is performance. He’s there to drive hits to the web site, so outrageous statements or positions, often with no regard for the real world, are the order of the day.
720p High-Definition video ???
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. The guy keeps trashing Apple at some point he’s going to be right just by accident.
Just another opposite barometer.
I don’t think it’ll be a big success, either. As statistics have shown, iPods are filled with MP3s people have ripped or pilfered. Only a small percentage of songs on iPods are AACs from iTunes. So, in similar fashion, Apple needs to support the de facto video standard codec to have AppleTV be similarly successful. I know it’s not the best quality video, but AVIs are the de facto standard right now. I would buy an Apple TV if it supported AVI as there are European TV shows I like to download and watch on my Mac (that aren’t even available on iTunes), but won’t be able to stream them to my TV with Apple TV.
“wall street guy” is spot on
why release this “story” now ?
why not wait 3 days and give a real informed opinion after actually using the product ?
and the biggest question, who the hell is stupid enough to subscribe to this guy’s service ?
DO NOT CLICK THE LINK TO HIS WEBSITE !!!!
avi the de facto… HA HA HA!!! ASS!
How so??
Take my word for it…Apple TV is going to be big. Very big.
First, he wants hits to his article. Second, I said this would happen– huge build up, then the tear down. It started a bit early, though considering it’s hasn’t even begun to arrive in peoples’ homes yet.
Time will tell.
1. Limited Uses
DVD players don’t deliver TV broadcasts, TV tunes don’t play dvd’s. As long as the content itself is compelling enough it makes no difference how many different things it does.
2. Set-Top Fatigue
So people have stopped buying new devices? Hasn’t stopped the wii doing well. As long as the content it delivers is compelling then people have shown they will buy something new.
3. Compatibility & Confusion
The Apple TV does not emulate a windows media center, that’s the whole point. If people can use iTunes (which they can and do) then they can use this.
4. Inconvenient
In order to watch a dvd you have to buy or rent it – what’s the point?
As long as the content is compelling enough to outweigh any perceivable disadvantages of a product then it will succeed. Apple TV may fail, but not for these reasons, or at least the explanation of them given in this article.
Reading this article is just trading one fanatacism for another, and if I’ve gotta pick fanatics then I’m going to pick on the side of Apple Fanatacism.
I’ve been choosing, buying and recommending Apple products, mostly it’s computers, since 1985, for home and work, and have never regretted one moment of it. I was choosing Apple when it was popular and not succeeding as well as Windows, I was choosing Apple when it wasn’t popular and not succeeding, and I’m still choosing Apple. And now it’s not only the smart thing to do, its becoming the popular thing to do, the pay-off for sticking with Apple products just keeps getting better and better.
Apple is not perfect, but neither is anything else, and as I’ve done since 1985, I dare anyone to actually research their Apple products carefully and objectively, and almost everytime you are compelled to admit that the Apple product is the way to go. I think iTV is a done deal, I think iPhone is a done deal, and I think the Macintosh is quickly becoming the done deal it should have been all along. If this horse’s ass is free to be fanatically against Apple then I’m unapologetically free to be fanatically for Apple.
Eat my dust Swann…
Go Apple!
>And yet, he’s still paid to write…. what happened to accountability and performance-based employment?>
One word–unions.
Funny, he failed to mention that he actually had hands on with the Apple TV in order to get his opinion. Mossberg based his opinion after using one for awhile.
Who’s opinion would you trust??
Oh! Let me guess. This guy is not high enough on the list to get one ahead of time like Mossberg did. I wonder why??
Because this guy is actually paid to have the exact speculations that we here on this forum are able to have. If this guy is qualified to be an analyst, the we all are qualified to be analysts.
Send me my check, please.
Oh Yeah, iPod was doomed too. Not!
gggggssss… as if jobs is some dumb fool. As if Apple doesn’t have a strategic plan with the best creative and marketing team.
Fools I tell you. Fools!
More articles on the Apple TV please. I’m a bg Apple fan. I have a G4 PM, a Cube, a G5 PM and a MacBook. I got an iPod on day 1. I ‘get’ the iPhone. I probably won’t buy one as mobile device like that isn’t important to me (I have a basic phone, not a smartphone, and the gen 1 iPod is still fine for me).
What I don’t ‘get’ is the Apple TV. It just looks like niche to me. My view tends towards agreeing with this analyst. So more articles, more comments, so that maybe I’ll ‘get’ the product.
I have to remember that this is early days. I think it will be limited success for 2, 3 years.
So I don’t really see anything wrong in what this guy says, but I’d like to. Part of me just says, “OK, so I don’t get it yet, but all will become clear in time”.
I’m still holding out for a 2nd or 3rd gen Tv.
I agree that Swann is no swami, and generally has been an idiot in the past, but in this case agree with him. Apple TV will certainly be useful for those who have a lot of iTunes video content on their computers and want to watch it on their TVs but I doubt if that is a large fraction of the TV viewing public. Maybe someday, but not now. I also doubt if most people will want to look at their computer-stored pictures on their TVs or listen to their music over their TV sound systems. I think Apple TV has the potential to take off but I suspect it will need to 1) be able to accept video input from conventional cable/satellite as well as computers, 2) record TV input in a Tivo-like fashion for transfer to computers or TVs, and 3) store larger amounts of video than can be accommodated on a 40 Gb hard drive, either by selling a version with a larger drive or be enabling external drives to be attached. It may also need to integrate with game players. I’m not sure it will have to play or record DVDs, because that can be done on the computer, though it would be more convenient to be able to insert the DVD in the Apple TV box next to the TV instead of in the computer in the next room. In other words, for this device to be really useful to me, and I suspect to most families, it will need to integrate and simplify all the current devices attached to TV’s as well as connect the computer to the TV. Maybe that’s their long range vision. Let’s hope so. Otherwise, I fear Apple TV will only be a niche device.
Actually, Swann is right this time around. (Although he’s usually wrong this time around.)
Early days I’d say — ATV certainly doesn’t sing “buy me” to this tech-heavy household.
But it’s unlikely to be a failure either, especially as Apple controls the entertainment download space.
Come later versions with recording ability atc, and it’ll become ‘the one’.
Top off at three million. Yeah, that would be a huge embarrassment. In fact, I think Apple should give the whole lot to me and I will sell and tarnish my name instead…..and collect the nearly $1 Billion in revenue!