“Every few days, another pundit looks at the iPhone and figures out why it won’t succeed. Whether it’s missing out on the ‘industry-standard’ functionality of a smartphone or using a slow network standard, everyone wants to be the person who best determines why this time Apple will flop on its face,” Pete Mortensen blogs for Wired.
“The latest to weigh in is Taesik Yoon of Forbes, who argues that Apple’s got a bigger challenge entering the mature mobile phone market than they did with MP3 players and the iPod. Worse, the high price will dissuade people from buying, and the Cingular deal will totally flatten the possible market. The 10 million iPhones sold by 2008? Not a prayer,” Mortensen writes.
Mortensen writes, “And I still don’t buy it… First and foremost, we don’t have any idea which iPhones Apple intends to sell 10 million of, nor how much they’re going to cost… Secondly, the iPhone will be a global product… Third, I think that the iPhone constitutes an entry in a market other than smartphones. Instead, it’s Apple going after the multimedia phone market, which is incredibly immature and unsatisfying. The LG Chocolate is maybe the best product in this market, and anyone who has ever used it can tell you just why it poses no threat to either the iPod or the iPhone.”
Related article: Chocolate Cellphone Only Looks Sweet; Its Design Is Flawed – Walt Mossberg, The Wall Street Journal, August 03, 2006
Mortensen continues, “I think you might find that Apple is under-selling the device with their 10 million figure.”
Full article here.
Related articles:
Getting ready for Apple iPhone: How to get out of your 2-year cellphone contract – March 13, 2007
Apple’s marketing machine does it again: iPhone generates $400 million in free publicity – March 10, 2007
Analyst: Apple’s iPhone has Palm ‘shaking in their sandals’ – March 09, 2007
Which company is most at risk from Apple’s looming iPhone onslaught? – March 04, 2007
Morgan Stanley reiterates Apple ‘buy’ – says market is underestimating iPhone demand – March 01, 2007
Apple’s 10 million iPhone sales target for 2008 would surpass most other smart phone sales – March 01, 2007
Apple COO Tim Cook: iPhone is a revolutionary product; you get what you pay for – February 28, 2007
How will vehicle makers integrate Apple’s iPhone? – February 28, 2007
Apple COO Tim Cook: iPhone on track for June launch – February 27, 2007
Goldman Sachs: 4 reasons to be bullish on Apple’s iPhone – February 26, 2007
Apple airs iPhone teaser ad during Oscars – February 25, 2007
Apple preps 3G iPhone model for Europe – February 25, 2007
The once-mighty Palm Inc. doomed to decline and failure – thanks to Apple’s iPhone – February 23, 2007
Palm CEO can’t stop talking about Apple iPhone – February 19, 2007
How Steve Jobs played hardball in iPhone deal with AT&T (Cingular) – February 17, 2007
Digit takes a closer look at Apple’s iPhone – February 14, 2007
Microsoft caught off-guard, beaten badly by Apple’s iPhone innovations – February 13, 2007
Apple’s soon-to-be iPhone rivals sound just like iPod rivals circa 2001 – February 01, 2007
How Verizon blew the Apple iPhone deal – January 29, 2007
O2, Vodafone, Orange, T-Mobile battle for exclusive rights to Apple iPhone in UK – January 26, 2007
Rogers to offer Apple iPhone exclusively in Canada – January 25, 2007
Research in Motion downgraded due to Apple iPhone competition – January 23, 2007
Ihnatko: Hands-on with Apple’s iPhone (which runs Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard) – January 18, 2007
Microsoft CEO Ballmer laughs at Apple iPhone – January 17, 2007
RealMoney: Apple just blew up the whole damn mobile-phone supply chain with its new iPhone – January 11, 2007
eWeek: Apple iPhone fallout: ‘They must be crying in Nokia-ville and other telephony towns today’ – January 10, 2007
Jefferies downgrades Motorola on fears of market share loss to Apple iPhone – January 10, 2007
The massive FUD campaign against Apple’s iPhone ramps up – January 10, 2007
Time: ‘iPhone could crush cell phone market pitilessly beneath the weight of its own superiority’ – January 09, 2007
Analyst: Apple iPhone should be given its own category – ‘brilliantphone’ – January 09, 2007
Apple debuts iPhone: touchscreen mobile phone + widescreen iPod + Internet communicator – January 09, 2007
^ Cubert, that’s awesome!
There is still one big issue. As far as anyone knows, the iPhone will not connect with enterprise servers or sync with MS Exchange/Outlook. The is equivalent to dead on arrival for many IT departments. IF apple really wants to compete with the Blackberry’s and Treos the iPhone will have to go toe to toe for getting corp email. Until then, I look at it as a really cool ultra-portable Mac, that can also make calls…just like my laptop already does. I will probably have to lug around my Treo for work email and use the iPhone for everything else.
Every exec won’t have an iPhone as long as they’re AT&T only and don’t connect to Exchange servers.
With regards to connecting to exchange servers, we need to wait and see the final specs when it ships later this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Apple makes changes to the final software bundled with the iPhone.
From: Macaday
10 mill will be reached at the end of 2007 not 2008…
Dude – watch the keynote again. Steve was very clear.
Memories of the doom and gloom predictions for the iPOD Mini always come to mind when I read these dire predictions.
We know how clueless and WRONG the pundits were in that case. The iPhone will be no different.
You would think these bozos would learn from their previous mistakes, but they never do.
What if the market for the iPhone is not business?
Then, who gives a gigantic, spiral, flying flip if it can connect to Exchange or show Powerpoint slides? Apple will still make a fortune and the world will continue to spin. I have a bike but I don’t ride it to work. And the constant whining about iPhone’s shortcomings is getting real annoying especially since it’s not been released.
And screw Exchange and every other MS-owned, proprietary disease that Microsoft inflicts on the world.
Meh.
The iPhone is an overpriced, overrated POS, like everything else Apple makes.
Sean since you own one and use it all the time, I believe you.
%^&*@ idiot. Go play in traffic.
The iPhone doesn’t even need its high technology to succeed with me.
If it just syncs my address book, calendar, songs (MP3 & AAC is enough), notes and photos with my Mac PLUS makes half-decent calls, then I’ll buy it. Most phones I have used don’t think of Mac customers, leaving it up to third party solutions. The multi-touch, rotation/proximity detection are all just icing on the cake for a phone that does what the Mac customer wants.
To non-Apple phone companies: buy a Mac and ensure your products work with them, add the Mac logo to the box, your web site and manual. As Apple’s computers gain market share, you’re phone needs to be seen as Mac-compatible.
Magic word ‘gone’: as in phone companies that aren’t Mac-compatible will be gone.
Apple always downplays their projections. Earnings that exceed expectations are what drives the stock price up.
-jcr
I don’t get why the folks don’t get it. Apple is not trying to capture the smartphone market. Apple will get the smartphone market but that is not their focus. It is the multi-media/phone, multi-touch, ipod, unhappy UI music play device on the go computer market that hasn’t been established yet, untouched 100 million user consumer market. And they will get it. The consumer is going to buy this like hotcakes. It is as big as or bigger than the iPod Market.
Apple would not even get into the market if it was just based on the smartphone market.