Wired’s Mortensen: Apple is under-selling iPhone with their 10 million figure

Apple Store“Every few days, another pundit looks at the iPhone and figures out why it won’t succeed. Whether it’s missing out on the ‘industry-standard’ functionality of a smartphone or using a slow network standard, everyone wants to be the person who best determines why this time Apple will flop on its face,” Pete Mortensen blogs for Wired.

“The latest to weigh in is Taesik Yoon of Forbes, who argues that Apple’s got a bigger challenge entering the mature mobile phone market than they did with MP3 players and the iPod. Worse, the high price will dissuade people from buying, and the Cingular deal will totally flatten the possible market. The 10 million iPhones sold by 2008? Not a prayer,” Mortensen writes.

Mortensen writes, “And I still don’t buy it… First and foremost, we don’t have any idea which iPhones Apple intends to sell 10 million of, nor how much they’re going to cost… Secondly, the iPhone will be a global product… Third, I think that the iPhone constitutes an entry in a market other than smartphones. Instead, it’s Apple going after the multimedia phone market, which is incredibly immature and unsatisfying. The LG Chocolate is maybe the best product in this market, and anyone who has ever used it can tell you just why it poses no threat to either the iPod or the iPhone.”

Related article: Chocolate Cellphone Only Looks Sweet; Its Design Is Flawed – Walt Mossberg, The Wall Street Journal, August 03, 2006

Mortensen continues, “I think you might find that Apple is under-selling the device with their 10 million figure.”

Full article here.

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37 Comments

  1. Apple always rounds down and/or bids low. 30 million sounds good and reasonable for 18 months. When people actually see the iPhone in person, then they will run out and buy one. I wanted a Razr after I got to mess with one, and it can’t touch the iPhone with a ten foot pole.

  2. He said they are going to be measuring sales over the period June 07 to June 08. How everyone can keep getting that wrong is baffling. Anyway, in the time I reckon they could sell around 15 million worldwide.

  3. What so many so called analysts fail to realise with Apple is that it’s not solely how many of something they sell or how much market share they have. It’s what portion of the market they have, how profitable they are in it and how their customers are loyal. Other companies have to keep getting new customers to make up for the people they lose, there is no future revenue from them. Any advertising is spent on getting an individual sale. Apple spend x amount on advertising and get a new mac owner or something and chances are they’ll be with them for years to come. They’re highly profitable in all regards hence why even with “only” 10m iPhone sales they’d be sitting pretty no doubt.

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