Deutsche Bank: Apple TV could take 30% of set-top box market within a few years

Apple Store“Apple’s set-top box device for consuming digital media, expected to hit stores next week, has at least one analyst optimistic that it will be a DVD killer,” Scott Martin reports for Red Herring.

Martin reports, “Apple TV could also haul in billions of dollars in sales within a few years, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore.”

“‘It’s conceivable’ that Apple’s living room entertainment box—rival to Microsoft’s Xbox—could carve out 20 to 30 percent of a $26 billion market in a few years, Mr. Whitmore said Tuesday in a report,” Martin reports.

“That could “drive $5-7B in incremental revenue and $0.50-plus in EPS” for Apple, he wrote,” Martin reports. “Apple stands to first gain from the roughly 40 million people who use iTunes, but Apple TV will eventually eat into the business of makers of DVD and CD players, according to Deutsche Bank.”

Full article here.

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RUMOR: Apple may enter video game market – December 05, 2006
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23 Comments

  1. Everything is going digital. Physical media is not going to be associated with music and video offerings anymore. Disc media will be overthrown by solid state flash memory for storage and archiving. There will be no more need for CDs or DVD’s or the mechanical drives that use them.

    Apple was a leader in removing the floppy drive from computers years ago, I’d put money on it that within the next 5 years the optical drive is removed as well!

  2. Eh, doubt it. An expensive box that does nothing more than stream stuff from iTunes isn’t going to take over the world. Particularly when it won’t even connect to relatively new televisions b/c of the incompatible connectors on the back. AppleTV has NO appeal to any mainstream consumer.

  3. With a good (reliable – as in OS X) computer, fast internet, and AppleTV you have every TV/radio show, games, music and films available in every room of every home.

    Bill Gates’ dream is going to be realized by Steve Jobs. If that isn’t justice I’m a Frenchman !

  4. As much as I hate to say it, the poor TV compatibility is going to be the biggest issue. I may be fairly behind the times because I still have a standard Phillips CTR television but I’m pretty sure that there’s plenty more like me. This box requires a widescreen and component or HDMI connection, which I don’t have on any television in my home. Unless someone can tell me how to get that component to RCA adapter, it’s just not happening for me. I’d love to get this device but can’t spring for a TV too. Maybe in a couple of years when the rest of us catch up? 🙁

  5. Agreed. The lack of a S-Video or Composite output on this box is a bit backwards. I know Apple are all for dumping legacy stuff, but how come I can plug in my brand new MacBook Pro into my regular TV, but not the AppleTV?

  6. Joke.
    Stream from my computer (iTunes) to my TV at crap quality? I don´t think AppleTV is going to make much of a dent.
    Gotta´ turn my computer on upstairs in office to stream a show to my TV in the basement? Ain´t gonna´ happen.

    All AppleTV is about is Apple – it is not designed for the consumer it is designed to trap you into the Applecontrolme way.

  7. if rumours are correct, leopard will unleash all sorts of excitement with the appleTV. i imagine the iphone will interact with it too…

    as for composite/rca connections, people will upgrade their televisions sooner than later at this point in the game so i agree that its definitely legacy and going the way of the floppy disc. i also agree with loki capret, optical drive gone before we know it. can’t wait. i also can’t wait for the appleTV i ordered the day it was made available!

  8. Remember when Apple killed the floppy drive —

    Remember when Apple pushed FireWire into the main stream —

    Remember when Apple created the iPod and pretty much is killing the CD

    The point is to push people forward. If you don’t have a TV that has an HD input, you will soon. This just makes another reason for you to go and buy one.

  9. To some extent the video quality issue is going to hold back a fair amount of business. However another large share of the market won’t care allowing Apple to gain a strong initial foothold on the emerging market.

    Fortunately the video quality issues will be fairly easy to upgrade as increased high bandwidth allows HD (or at least DVD quality Video) to be offered.

    so in the long run if Apple stays with the current standard it will be a problem, but there’s no reason at all to suspect they won’t move to adopt higher quality wireless video , and that will present a hug e problem for traditional DVD market.

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