“Apple has finally announced its long-rumored iPhone. True to the Apple ‘i’ tradition, the iPhone is filled with features and touts an innovative interface more akin to a kiosk or video game than a telephone… Can it succeed? Frankly, and contrary to the reactions of Apple fans and the stock market, I am pretty skeptical. I don’t think this device will meet the fantastic predictions I have been reading. For starters, while Apple basically established the market for portable music players, the phone market is already established, with a number of major brands. Can Apple remake the phone market in its image? Success is far from guaranteed,” Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates, writes for Computerworld.
Gold writes, “Why am I not impressed? First, making an entertainment device is much different from making a phone. Over the years, plenty of phones offering lots of nice ‘toys’ for users have disappointed. Ultimately, they were not very good phones. And the bottom line is that you have to build a good phone first, and then add features on top of that.”
Gold writes, “Another difference between phones and entertainment devices is that phones must be much more rugged and less prone to breakage while being subjected to all kinds of abuse. Can the iPhone take such abuse without a high failure rate?”
Gold writes, “The price is steep. Yes, I understand that the astronomical list prices of $500 and $600 are simply initial inflations meant for the early adopters willing to pay almost anything (and to limit volumes while Apple ramps up to catch up to demand). But even if the prices were cut in half, that is hefty for a phone device these days, even one with loads of features.”
Gold writes, “Who is the target for this device? At $300 to $400 (assuming the price falls rapidly), an iPhone clearly is not a casual buy. In the past, most high-end phones have been sold to business users willing to pay for a fancy phone with the capabilities they wanted. But these users almost universally demand connectivity to corporate systems, especially through push e-mail and Outlook integration. How well the iPhone does at integrating to these systems remains to be tested. And although I would bet the iPhone will integrate and sync well with the Mac, very few businesses run on Macs.”
Gold writes, “The device runs the Mac OS. This is a major constraint, since few third-party application vendors (e.g., Good Technologies for a push e-mail client) run on the Mac… Apple will likely have a tough time convincing application vendors to build specialized clients for the iPhone until the volumes are there, and the volumes could be limited by the lack of third-party applications – a Catch 22.”
Gold writes, “So, will the iPhone succeed? At some level, yes, given the cachet that the Apple brand carries and the company’s base of loyal fans. But Apple has a lot of questions to answer… My advice: Unless you are a die-hard Apple fan, wait a few months to see how this all shakes out, especially if you want to employ the device as an adjunct to your business. Find out how good a phone it really is and how well it connects to the world you live and work in before spending the high price for what could ultimately become an orphaned, stand-alone music player.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “King Mel” for the heads up.]
Has Mr. Gold even watched Steve Jobs’ keynote and seen the iPhone demonstrated? Ultimately, Mr. Gold’s advice to “wait a few months to see how this all shakes out” coupled with his threat that Apple’s iPhone “could ultimately become an orphaned, stand-alone music player” just doesn’t smack of FUD, it is the very definition of FUD.
Related article:
The massive FUD campaign against Apple’s iPhone ramps up – January 10, 2007
Obviously hasn’t watched the keynote.
I actually agree. There remains a lot of questions to be answered. I think developers are going to be hoping that this is a new platform for them to release their products for. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to be leaning this way to keep that closed system environment for the highest level of consistency. Connecting with Exchange networks is crutial while outlook isn’t whatsoever if they are looking to make this a practical “smartphone” or at least corporate tool.
Battery life I think will be an issue as well. I’m buying an iPhone, but I’ll be waiting for a 2nd or even 3rd generation before I commit to it’s gloss and impressive features.
This bozo hasn’t bought a blackberry. Cost me $450 bucks with no service agreement.
Remember all the “MORONS” who were parading around, predicting doom and gloom for Apple after the iPOD Mini was announced?
“It is priced way too high, no one would ever buy one of those, blah blah blah…”
The iPHONE nay sayers will be eating just as much crow as the moronic iPOD Mini nay sayers did.
No matter how cool a product is, there will always be that handful of envious losers who have to try and piss in everyone elses corn flakes.
Uh, I think everyone will follow his advice and wait at least a few months to buy, considering they won’t start selling until June.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />
I’m definitely going to wait a few months. Until June.
He’s shortsighted that’s all, and he’s not alone of course.
Just look what morons predicted iPod was set to fail..and you get the picture.
The proof is in the buying. Count me in x5.
And just imagine when we can ditch landlines and use VOIP and WiFi for 80% of all it’s activity!
“Gold writes, “The device runs the Mac OS. This is a major constraint,…”
Jaysus,,,how many freakin e-mail apps do you want on a phone,? How many browsers, calculators? What a major league, uninformed FUD spewing, dork.
Oh yes, please give me Versamail and the Palm internet browser. What? There are not a zillion apps some of which are a better email or browser client?
I suspect he uses a Fisher-Price phone (with BIG numbers on it)
Sigh….beam me up Scotty….NOW!
‘founder and principle analyst’ – reminds me of Enderle
Oh, and by the way, I paid $500 for my Palm Treo 700p about 6 months ago with a 6 month contract. I hate it. It picks up so much background noise that the people I’m talking to can’t hear me. I find the internet portion of it to be completely unuseable. I intend to drive over it on my way home from picking up my iPhone. I’m canceling my contract early and paying the damn fee.
I see opinions such as these as bellwethers of fantastic success. You may recall, the iPod mini was way too expensive and didn’t offer enough features when it was first released, and look what happened to it. I believe the same sorts of things were said about the original iPod, too.
Re: Apple has finally announced its long-rumored iPhone. True to the Apple ‘i’ tradition, the iPhone is filled with features and touts an innovative interface more akin to a kiosk or video game than a telephone…
Didn’t Stevie say the “Killer App” (god I hate that term), is MAKING PHONE CALLS!
I agree with this guy to some extent…The software is closed – so you have to wait for Apple to release a “widget” that might come in handy. Secondly, Apple tends to wildly exaggerate battery life, so if they say 5 hours – I take it with a grain of salt and wonder – what if it is something miserable, like 2? Thirdly, how can it be an ipod replacement with only 8 Gigs of memory? If I were going to spring 600 bucks on a “convergence” device, I would want something that would actually replace my ipod – all 23 gigs of my music. I mean, it is widescreen with brilliant video – but only 8 Gigs? Perhaps as a nano replacement it works… Lastly, if I so much as glance at my ipod screen, it scratches – hopefully it is more smudge-scratch proof than it seems…
MDN, pursuant to SteveJacks caution for FUD articles, I think you guys should number these iPhone FUD Alerts… This being #1 just to see how many we accumulate, heck we can even put them on a graph and watch the accelaration curve as we approach the June launch.
What do you guys think?
MW: Keep – keep’em coming!
Oh – let me re-emphasize BATTERY life. Without a user-replaceable battery, it has to have some good battery life unless you want to be saddled with a charger at home, work, car, etc… It seems a little contrary to the Apple “Think Different” mantra to be locking people into service with Cingular as well with a 2 year contract…
I don’t know; the author seems right to say it’s a little on the expensive side (especialy if you already own an iPod or you’re tethered to another provider) and that it isn’t guaranteed to be interoperable with pre-existing business networks. That could severely hurt it’s base. Yes, MDN, there can be FAULTS in an Apple product. It’s ok, it’s not the end of Apple.
Gold is right, the iPhone won’t succeed if all a consumer wants is a cell phone. However, the market is upscale and it is a business market, not just the high end consumer market. It’s a pocket computer that might enable travel without the need to take a laptop, and, given the theft of computers from airplane holds, it is going to become an indispensable tool for travelling.
Its functions tie into business applications, including the photo capacity. For example, a sales person wouldn’t need to carry binders around with a bunch of product photos. Marketing types could have presentations canned as movies or photos, e.g. of new packaging, prototypes, etc. and the capacity to have one’s contacts and calendars available, all synched to the Mac back home will make it an indispensable business tool. So to gain just 1% of the market, Apple won’t even need to sell it to consumers per se: businesses will find the $499 or $599 (the 8 gig will outsell the 4 right from the start) inexpensive as a productivity and communications tool.
In Canada, Rogers will probaby be the service provider whenever Apple can get around to the Canadian market. It might not be able to satisfy the U.S. demand for a while, so we are hoping to see them in 2008. Whoops, as I write this, AAPL is down 53 cents to 96.50. A year from now, that will be seen as really cheap. Buy AAPL now and take the profits to buy your iFONE? from the proceeds. Gold is going to get one: you watch.
Some of Gold’s points are quite valid. Corporate interoperability is a very good question, one that will take a while to be adequately answered and which cannot be seen from only a Keynote presentation.
MDN, this is not FUD. Your failure to recognize that reduces your credibility and reveals your ignorance, bias, and misplaced zealotry. Most of the comments reveal the same level of intelligence.
aCe Quote: I actually agree. There remains a lot of questions to be answered. I think developers are going to be hoping that this is a new platform for them to release their products for. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to be leaning this way to keep that closed system environment for the highest level of consistency. Connecting with Exchange networks is crutial while outlook isn’t whatsoever if they are looking to make this a practical “smartphone” or at least corporate tool.
They are amazing, and I would love to have one, but I doubt this will catch on like predicted.
Sony established the market for portable music players. Over 30 years ago. As for MP3 players, the market existed, but the products weren’t right and were too expansive, so old tech prevailed until Apple turned up. Apple waited until the technology allowed it to make a killer product. It seems the same to me now. Until the technology was developed to allow the right product at a reasonable price, they just kept out of the market.
Also, I don’t really think there’s a great deal of loyalty in phone brands. I’ve had a Sony, a Nokia, a Siemens, a Sony-Ericsson and a Motorola. Never the same brand twice. Apple’s brand is established in the minds of a lot of people in te right sort of tech area already, so I don’t think people will be any more afraid of trying Apple’s phone than of trying, say, a new phone from NEC.
Ultimately, they were not very good phones. And the bottom line is that you have to build a good phone first, and then add features on top of that
Wow! He gets it ! He just doesn’t get that Apple gets it too.
You can’t tell what the real price is because details of the contracts aren’t available. It’s likely that there will be contracts where the phone is ‘free’, but the line rental will be astronomical, just with all the current expensive ‘free’ phones.
Wait a few months. Well, that’s not so hard, seeing as how it’s not available for a few months, even in the US.
His advice at the end is the kind of FUD that MDN / SteveJack talked about earlier today. It’s not what he says, it’s the way that he says it. It’s actually good advice to take to consider your requirements for ANY device that might otherwise be a useless. The inference here is that it is likely that the iPhone will be useless and is best avoided rather than the inference being think about the things you buy and whether they’re the right choice.
No, this is not FUD. It is a blind cry in the dark.
This phone will sell heaps even as presented, but it will morph, spawn variants and eventually be supported by many carriers.
If anyone is downplaying the potential of this gadget, Apple is – because they know the take up of this product will test their manufacturers’ ability to ramp up production, and because they know it has the potential to speed up the demise of obsolete technology. Data costs too high? Cut your landline.
Geeze, my preteens are clamoring for one! Not to mention a new nano or video iPod or new Mac.
I live in Sacramento California. Cingular service here is just terrible. I don’t know about elsewhere in the USA. Perhaps the towers and technologies are better in other areas. Here in Sacto it is just dismal. I paid the cancellation fee to get away from AT&T/Cingular and went to Sprint where I have been very happy with the connectivity. However, I must say the Treo 650 just sucks. But it is the only thing that I can sync with my Mac via the Missing Sync in the smart phone realm.
I spoke with someone about the “edge” technology and I am told that it is slow. Perhaps by June the slow issue will be resolved…if even that is an issue.
I suppose the bottom line is that purchasing the iPhone will be a case by case…depending on your area and what you can afford.
I am disappointed that phone is closed and exclusive to a multi year deal with Cingular. I am sure Apple have significant reason why such a contract. As always, Apple thinks thing through and is not given to just reactive decision making.
Does anyone know how significant of a role the phone itself plays in the quality of reception?
“How well the iPhone does at integrating to these systems remains to be tested. And although I would bet the iPhone will integrate and sync well with the Mac, very few businesses run on Macs.”
WRONG-O! I guess he wasn’t paying attention during the keynote.
Last night at 2 am EST, Business 2.0 had posted 10 negative articles about Apple, most of them reposts of articles going back as far as November 24, 2006. The hedgies and MS are calling in all their markers. The FUD machine is in high gear.
“Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates”… every time I read about someone with this kind of title reminds me of Rob Enderle and his “group” which consists of his dog, his wife, his Windows PC, himself and Peris Hilton!!! LOL!!!!
Maybe I’m wrong but Apple hasn’t said the iPhone would be completely closed to third-party developers. It seems that Apple may be taking more of a game console approach to (1) ensure security, (2) conformity to Apple application design guidelines, and, most importantly, (3) setting up iTunes to be the central distribution point for applications.
In other words, HackAnApp Inc. can’t just throw up an app on their website for the iPhone which users can freely download. Given the potential sales volumes for the iPhone, a buggy (yet popular) app might create a support nightmare for Apple. Instead, with the model mentioned above, Apple can do some degree of quality control upfront, and establish an easy, consistent process for distributing updates, patches, etc.
Effectively, by controlling access to third-party development, Apple can be selective about the types of apps and developers at early-adopters will experience. The better that initial experience, the less likely Apple is to face support and PR problems similar to what Microsoft faces with malware.
I think it’s a smart approach when establishing a new platform, and I’m sure we’ll see the platform become more open over time.