“NPD released some new data [yesterday], showing that Apple increased its market share of the MP3 player market from 45% in 2005 to 57.5% in the five weeks around the holiday season in 2006,” Carl Howe writes for Blackfriars’ Marketing.
Howe writes, “Now this data has some notable omissions. Among them are sales from Wal-Mart (a big factor) and the Apple Stores themselves (a huge factor in iPod sales). And the data only covers five weeks, not the entire quarter. Nonetheless, the data is probably somewhat representative of the quarter, so I did some estimates of the omitted effects.”
“I was a piker in my previous prediction of 20 million iPods and $7 billion in sales for Apple’s holiday quarter. Assuming that these numbers are somewhat in line, Apple may see a nearly $8 billion holiday quarter, with $4 billion of that revenue coming from the sales of 23 million iPods,” How writes.
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]
Let’s not overestimate. Better to be surprised if Apple hits 8 billion… Otherwise, the stock will tank if everyone expects 8 billion and comes in under.
Oh, the humanity!
Any “tanking” of Apple stock will be temporary I assure you…
Will be a buying opportunity.
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Now this data has some notable omissions. Among them are sales from Wal-Mart (a big factor) and the Apple Stores themselves (a huge factor in iPod sales). And the data only covers five weeks, not the entire quarter.
My, what a reliable estimate of iPod sales! In related news, 97% of women want to go out with me. This data has some notable omissions. Among them are women under age 55, below 210 pounds, and those who’ve met me.
Anyone remember what the numbers were like ten years ago?
Then and now are like night and day.
With numbers like this, the result is absolutely certain: lower and lower quality.
It’s already happened and getting worse. Apple’s hardware and software are no longer the premier quality it used to be.
Now that Steve has Chinese assembly lines running 3 shifts, we are getting a lot of crap and, what’s worse, customer care has gone down the drain – replaced by increasing arrogance that says to me: “who cares about you, who needs you, leave the store, you whiner, we have a long line of suckers who are waiting to plop down their hard earned money, take our crap, don’t expect us to answer any of their stupid questions, so, move on you loser.
So, I’ll move on – to say, Sony and some Vista, ad some selected M’soft stuff that really works like it is suppose to. There is lots of it out there and I’m becoming more and more interested in it.
Peterson– is that you?
Quality Down the Drain:
Please let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
Hey Down The Drain, I think you might be happy with a computer solution sold by GenericVagueTech. I see you already have their analyst certification.
Ok, I give up
Quality Down the Drain absolutely right. If he buys some M’soft stuff. The quality of his equipment will certainly go down the drain!
Let’s be realistic: Apple is not perfect. But Apple delivers superior quality to the competitor’s products. Just because Apple products are manufactured in China doesn’t mean that it is bad quality. It’s a question of controlling the output.
QDTD:
Increasing production does not necessitate lower quality. Ramping up production can actually be good because you can get more consistent manufacturing processes.
Apple does need to ensure that the components they use are of good quality and that each new production line or manufacturer they add produces consistently good products.
If the design and materials are of high quality and the implementation is correct then there is no reason why good products cannot be produced.
As Apple transition to higher volumes they need to avoid following Dell’s model of using cheap and nasty components. They do not need to do that because they are not trying to get market share by going after the bottom end of the market.
QDTD,
Didn’t Microsoft already give you a free Ferrari laptop?
Every other Microsoft FUDMeister got one.
A message from the Enderle Group…
“Vroom Vroom!!! My Ferrari laptop makes me the coolest kid in the office!” -R.E.
“Honey, will you put that away and go clean your room? And put your big boy pants on.” -misses E.
23 million iPods and almost 2 million Mac?!?!?
Holy guacamole, batman!!!
Winston,
Too fscking funny!!!
MDM MW = “language” (as in I’m watchin’ it, MDN! No more cussing from Cubert)
can you say ipod saturation?
Carl Howe has a good track record for predictions of Apple revenues and earnings. Just check his blog for his past predictions. He’s come alot closer than analysts, and he’s NOT a financial analyst. He’s a marketing guy who just happens to pay close attention to Apple’s revenues.
that iTunes sales are plummeting and will be zero soon
Don’t Pass the Koolaid,
Only you could find a negative in this report.
Koolaid: “can you say ipod saturation?”
umm, yeah…… in fact, you maroons have been saying that very thing for the last, oh, 3 years or so……….
how’s that workin’ out for ya?
There are still many more folks in the US who own no kind of Mp3 player, than those who do. And, given the fact that both 8 & 80 year olds love the iPod, and CAN ACTUALLY FIGURE OUT HOW TO USE THEM….
try that with a Zune.
iPod penetration:
http://www.ibuzz.co.uk/
MDN MW: try