In-Stat: Apple Mac to continue to take Windows market share, iTunes may soon offer HD movies in 2007

In-Stat is predicting that more than 60 million households will have at least one wide screen, high-definition TV display in their home by the end of 2007.

In-Stat analyst Gerry Kaufhold predicts, “Intel is delivering quad-core CPUs that cry out to decode high-definition TV. Plus, Apple’s new Intel-based machines will bring iTunes into play, and it’s likely that iTunes will provide some high-definition versions of Disney movies for “download-to-own” services, and that, in itself, will generate a lot of ‘buzz.'”

“During 2007, it’s likely that only the higher end of the market will be interested in HDTV via broadband, but the ability of the high speed connections and quad-core PCs to deliver great looking video and surround sound audio will send a shiver through the Pay-TV industry and the Hollywood studios. Up till now, the Pay-TV services and Hollywood studios have assumed that the sheer size of HDTV files would be a natural impediment to delivering them via the Internet. By the end of 2007, we’ll see some people asking their ISP to give them a 30Mbps connection, and then canceling their Pay-TV service because they can download their favorite shows and movies and not pay for the extraneous networks that come ‘bundled’ by the Pay-TV service,” Kaufhold explains.

Kaufhold writes, “Plus, some of the HDTV content being delivered will look BETTER than the HDTV being provided by digital cable TV services. Some people will decide that the quality of their viewing experience is worth the extra hassle for waiting for large files to download. Finally, there will be some wireless HDMI solutions by late 2007 that permit an entertainment PC to ‘connect’ to a wide-screen HDTV display with ‘no new wires.’ That will really drive the market forward!”

In-Stat also released company-wide predictions, including:
• Macintosh will gain market share as people realize that Intel-based Macs can make better Windows PCs than many Windows PCs.

• iPhone hysteria will continue unabated throughout 2007. There will be even more numerous rumors of an iTunes phone from Apple, whipping the faithful into near apoplexy. If, by chance, such a device is released, adoring fans will stampede to buy them but the sales spurt will be short-lived, held back by device costs and availability.

• iTunes may expand their online music shop services into one or two more countries in the Asia/Pacific region, aside from their current operations in Japan and Korea respectively.

Much more in the full “In-Stat Predictions 2007” release (free, completed online form required), including a look back at how well In-Stat fared with their 2006 predictions here.
They’re not too hot on the ‘iPhone’ idea, are they? On the other topics: Go Mac! And, we already know of people who’ve canceled cable in favor of iTunes Store TV shows, so that idea rings very true. As for HD, we’ll see. We’d also like to see bit-rates upped for iTunes music files as it’s one of the main reasons people still buy CDs instead of downloads.

15 Comments

  1. By the end of 2007, we’ll see some people asking their ISP to give them a 30Mbps connection, and then canceling their Pay-TV service because they can download their favorite shows and movies and not pay for the extraneous networks that come ‘bundled’ by the Pay-TV service,” Kaufhold explains.

    I can’t wait. Then I’lll be able to drop my cable provider and get my television shows through my cable provider. Oh, wait….

  2. I just don’t think that yet another cell phone/pda is going to make that big of a splash in the general consumer arena – even IF the splash is big the ripples will be relatively small and not long lasting. IF Apple comes up with something really unique and yet something that people “get”, there’s a chance, but how much more can you do with cell phone ergonomics and features that hasn’t already been done? Plug and play compatibility for OS X – YEAH! But, revolutionize an already over-revolutionized industry – I’m very scepticle. Consumers are pretty much desensitized to any new whiz-bang cellular technology, and if iPhone is going to look like and iPod… Well… NOT.

    If Apple doesn’t do something extraordinary with their phone offering its just going to be another Newton fiasco.

  3. I was thinking the other day that the whole waiting for things to download could be lessened if they offered scheduling. You program your system to say you’re going to watch a show, it starts downloading it and then it’s ready when the show “airs”. In reality it’s not changing anything but it could give the perception that you’re watching something as it becomes available. Maybe. Probably nuts.

  4. Advances in technology disrupts industry and markets relying on older technology, and the disruption is led by mavericks, rogues and pirates. Industy should embrace the new technologies – painful and disruptive as it can be – or face being taken-over or extinguished by the mavericks, rogues or pirates.

    If it’s all a bit too daunting, they should consult or partner-with a maverick. May I suggest…Steve Jobs?

  5. In-Stat said: “iPhone hysteria will continue unabated throughout 2007. There will be even more numerous rumors of an iTunes phone from Apple, whipping the faithful into near apoplexy.”

    Too late, we’re all already in hysteria!

    Rock on Steve
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  6. Personally, I’d like to see some kind of BitTorrent service built into “Leopard” that would allow legal owners of iTunes (HD) movies to share them with new purchasers, thereby taking the burden off of Apple’s server farms.

    What would be the download time of a Blu-Ray film if 25,000 other owners were allowed to contribute their 2¢? And perhaps we contributers could earn a few points for sharing a film, good toward new purchases!

    Possible? (Should be, ’cause zillions of us are doing it right now with other files!)

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