Analysts: Microsoft Zune may end up being a flop

“The big splash Microsoft is determined to make in the digital music player market this holiday may end up being a flop,” Grace Wong reports for CNNMoney.

“Five years after Apple launched its first iPod, Microsoft (Charts) is taking aim at the digital music market with its Zune player, which goes on sale Tuesday,” Wong reports. Industry experts, however, aren’t convinced the company will be able to take a bite out of Apple, which has a 70 percent share of the market for portable music players.”

“‘I’m very skeptical about its ability to take hold in a market that already has a dominant player. It doesn’t feel disruptive enough to gain a foothold,’ said Ted Schadler, an analyst at Forrester Research,” Wong reports.

Wong reports, “Many analysts aren’t buying into the idea of ‘community’ that Zune is built around… But communities don’t just spring up – there has to be something immediately valuable to users in order for them to take hold, Schadler said… before a Zune user can share music, they have to find a friend who also owns a Zune player. ‘That’s going to be a slow transition,’ said Shawny Chen, a research analyst for Current Analysis. She expects Zune to win over some consumers but doesn’t expect it to attract a huge following this season.”

Full article here.

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Zune is from Microsoft, but Microsoft doesn’t want anybody to know about it – November 07, 2006
Microsoft Zune to be US-only, no firm plans to launch anywhere else globally – November 03, 2006
Five Microsoft Zune TV commercials – November 02, 2006
JupiterResearch: Apple’s iPod will dominate for foreseeable future; Microsoft’s Zune insignificant – October 25, 2006
Ellen DeGeneres Show gives away Microsoft Zunes, studio audience goes berserk – October 23, 2006
More Microsoft Zune myths explored – October 20, 2006
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Microsoft Zune intensifies chaos in Apple iPod+iTunes also-ran market – October 16, 2006
Newsweek Q&A: Apple CEO Steve Jobs discusses iPod’s impact, Microsoft’s Zune, and more – October 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Ballmer: Zune device not money loser, wishes Apple’s 30GB iPod was $299 instead of $249 – October 11, 2006
Microsoft’s consumer electronics track record: long string of failures – October 11, 2006 founder: ‘Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid’ – October 06, 2006
Microsoft fails to secure key Zune domains – October 04, 2006
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  1. went to the site that gman suggested:

    “…it will sell and you will like it.”

    Do as I command!

    So far, everything I have read has concentrated on the hardware, which has 1 feature that distinguishes it from iPod. That feature, as executed by MS, is not that appealing to me. Regardless, is Zune going to run on WMP? That ought be mindnumbingly shitty. Even if the WiFi squirting did appeal to me and I ran windows, the software experience would be a deal breaker.

  2. Ugh, that “hands on with Zune” video.

    The user interface looked so cool, snappy 3d things, kind of what Leopard is striving for.

    But after watching the guy flip through all those menus, many of them in each song, and then the effort trying to find the song location after it was shared —

    — I had to stop watching it because I was getting motion sickness. The whole interface after two minutes makes me ill.

  3. Apple should wait until Microsoft has poured in hundreds of millions in Zune production and development, and committed another $100 million for an ad cammpaign.

    Then it should announce the iPod phone, and suddenly, all that Microsoft money will be blown in a dramatic instant. Such a move would make Sun Tzu proud.

  4. This thing will sell. But will it take share from Apple, or the M$ partners? If it’s Apple, expect awesome Apple products in return. If it’s the partners, expect the beginnings of the young devouring mama pigs nipples. M$ could be setting the stage for a major coup against itself.

    The other-rans will combine, form Voltron, and smite the evil mother from which it was squirted.

  5. From the article:
    “As the battle plays out, one thing’s for sure: Microsoft is in the digital music business for the long haul.

    Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft’s entertainment and devices division, said at the company’s analyst meeting earlier this year that Microsoft plans to invest “hundreds of millions” in Zune over the next few years.”

    As the iPod continues to dominate the portable media player market, one thing’s for sure: Microsoft will continue to delude itself and its hapless investors that it remains relevant in the digital music business.

    Robbie Bach, admitted that Microsoft intends to waste “hundreds of millions” of investor capitol on the Zune and future failed projects.

    MDN Keyword “foot” as in MSFT won’t get a foot in the door of the digital music business.

  6. Communities have one thing — duration and an awareness of history. A temporary sharing feature does nothing to leave tracks (pun intended). Without history, there is no community; without longevity there is no history. Zune has neither. Buh bye “Zune community” — we hardly knew ye.

  7. oh…uhh..uhh this thing is so hot. Ima sploog all over it. Its the sweetest player ever. Owns the ipod into the ground. Ima keep it and my zen vision:m, cause my zen can support many more file types. So, skrew you apple your horrible, time for creative and microsoft to have sex and create a awesome player! Death to apple!

    😀 shweeeet

  8. I predict that Apple will bring out the widescreen/touchscreen video iPod at precisely the same time as Zune is due to arrive, which will take the wind out of Microsofts sails and make them look silly and irrelevant.

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