Analysts: Microsoft Zune may end up being a flop

“The big splash Microsoft is determined to make in the digital music player market this holiday may end up being a flop,” Grace Wong reports for CNNMoney.

“Five years after Apple launched its first iPod, Microsoft (Charts) is taking aim at the digital music market with its Zune player, which goes on sale Tuesday,” Wong reports. Industry experts, however, aren’t convinced the company will be able to take a bite out of Apple, which has a 70 percent share of the market for portable music players.”

“‘I’m very skeptical about its ability to take hold in a market that already has a dominant player. It doesn’t feel disruptive enough to gain a foothold,’ said Ted Schadler, an analyst at Forrester Research,” Wong reports.

Wong reports, “Many analysts aren’t buying into the idea of ‘community’ that Zune is built around… But communities don’t just spring up – there has to be something immediately valuable to users in order for them to take hold, Schadler said… before a Zune user can share music, they have to find a friend who also owns a Zune player. ‘That’s going to be a slow transition,’ said Shawny Chen, a research analyst for Current Analysis. She expects Zune to win over some consumers but doesn’t expect it to attract a huge following this season.”

Full article here.

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34 Comments

  1. WinFanBoys/Girls are undoubtedly making the mistake of comparing the iTurd in its current (??) form to the current–and shipping–iPod line.

    THAT, politely put, is an enormous error.

    For, no sooner will the 1G “iT” begin shipping, landing in customers’ hands, and then returning as unwanted Xmas presents, than the new iVideoPods will be announced by Master Jobs.

    Mental exercise: Compare the coming iVideoPod to the coming iTurd (with absolutely NO video capability, I might add).

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAH!

    (Are you laughing as well, Peterson/Stock Boy?)

  2. “But communities don’t just spring up”

    Thats wrong. communities do just spring up. Qube and Telidon communities, user groups, etc formed out of nothing because people found common interest and created communities.

    They were not the result of marketing campaigns.

    Also they are generally killed when companies realize that they cannot make money on them. At least not real money.

  3. went to the site that gman suggested:

    “…it will sell and you will like it.”

    Do as I command!

    So far, everything I have read has concentrated on the hardware, which has 1 feature that distinguishes it from iPod. That feature, as executed by MS, is not that appealing to me. Regardless, is Zune going to run on WMP? That ought be mindnumbingly shitty. Even if the WiFi squirting did appeal to me and I ran windows, the software experience would be a deal breaker.

  4. Ugh, that “hands on with Zune” video.

    The user interface looked so cool, snappy 3d things, kind of what Leopard is striving for.

    But after watching the guy flip through all those menus, many of them in each song, and then the effort trying to find the song location after it was shared —

    — I had to stop watching it because I was getting motion sickness. The whole interface after two minutes makes me ill.

  5. Apple should wait until Microsoft has poured in hundreds of millions in Zune production and development, and committed another $100 million for an ad cammpaign.

    Then it should announce the iPod phone, and suddenly, all that Microsoft money will be blown in a dramatic instant. Such a move would make Sun Tzu proud.

  6. This thing will sell. But will it take share from Apple, or the M$ partners? If it’s Apple, expect awesome Apple products in return. If it’s the partners, expect the beginnings of the young devouring mama pigs nipples. M$ could be setting the stage for a major coup against itself.

    The other-rans will combine, form Voltron, and smite the evil mother from which it was squirted.

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