Adobe’s Creative Suite 3.0 to power sales of Intel-based Macs in 2007

“The release of Adobe’s Creative Suite 3.0 professional software package next year will be a catalyst for new sales of Apple Computer’s Intel-based Macintosh computers, according to one Wall Street analyst,” AppleInsider reports.

“PiperJaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster recently spoke with 50 Adobe customers and found that 24 percent expect to buy a new Mac within two quarters of the release of Adobe’s CS3. Due by April of 2007, CS3 will represent the first version of the creative software bundle that is fully optimized for Apple’s Intel-based Macs,” AppleInsider reports.

AppleInsider reports, “According to Munster, Adobe maintains a creative pro customer base of approximately 3 million users. With 10 percent having upgraded to a new Mac within the last 2 quarters, he assumes for analytical purposes that approximately 300,000 (150,000/quarter) Adobe creative pros already own Intel-based Macs.”\

Full article here.

MacNN also reports on Munster’s note, “Assuming 10 percent have upgraded to a new Mac over the last 2 quarters, we arrive at a figure of 300,000 (150,000 per quarter) Adobe creative pros that have purchased Intel-based Macs,” the analyst wrote. ‘If we assume that our forward estimates are also based on 150,000 per quarter Macs that are sold to Adobe’s creative pro customer base, we would come to a figure of 600,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros by the time CS3 ships in April of 2007. This leaves us with 2.4 million Adobe creative pro customers that are yet to move to a new Mac.'”

MacNN reports, “The analyst notes that if 24 percent of these customers upgrade to a new Mac within the first 2 quarters following the release of CS3 — the June and September quarters — industry watchers can expect 288,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros in each of those two quarters. ‘That would be 138,000 more Macs per quarter than we had been anticipating, as we had been using an estimate of 150,000 Macs per quarter to Adobe creative pros. 138,000 more Macs sold to Adobe customers per quarter would add 7 percent ($0.04) to our earnings-per-share estimate in both the June and September 2007 quarters.'”

Full article here.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Some Apple Mac loyalists turn against Adobe – November 01, 2006
Adobe manager lashes out at loyal Mac-using customers – October 31, 2006
Adobe Soundbooth audio software released as public beta – October 26, 2006
Apple and Adobe at war? – October 06, 2006
Analyst expects Adobe Creative Suite 3 release on May 1, 2007 – October 04, 2006
How long must we wait for Adobe to produce Universal applications for Apple’s Intel-powered Macs? – August 21, 2006
Adobe CS3 sneak peek shown on Apple MacBook Pro as Universal Binary application – May 25, 2006
Cringely: Apple must replace Microsoft Office, buy Adobe Systems for attack on Microsoft to succeed – April 28, 2006
Adobe CEO: Universal version of Photoshop due in spring 2007 – April 21, 2006
Adobe software engineer explains why Photoshop for Intel-based Macs is taking so long – March 24, 2006
Should Apple buy Adobe as leverage against Microsoft? – December 16, 2005
Adobe prefers (and promotes) PCs over Macs – March 24, 2003

21 Comments

  1. Yup – no brainer – we need Adobe to get CS3 out, while we won’t order 50 Macs like the guy above – we will be ordering 5 (we’re a small company). It’s all I am waiting for – got the cash cluched in my sweaty little hand. C’mon Adobe – I love CS2 – we NEED CS3.

  2. Our school lab I work in (25 PowernMac machines) skipped an upgrade cycle last year and spent the $$ on other things, so we would have funds to upgrade them all this coming summer with the Mac Pros when all the software (including Maya 8.5–yay!) will be UB.

    I have a feeling there are a _lot_ of other businesses and ed. institutions that took the same course of action. Next summer could be huge for Apple–and of course we might be waiting quite a while to get those machines in our hands if they don’t plan for it ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  3. Can someone answer me a realy dumb question. Will the CS3 version (or anything for that matter, written for the Intel Macs) run on a non Intel Mac. I understand that non Intel mac software can run on the Intels with Rosseta, Parallels or whatever, but does it work the other way round. Of course I’m guessing ‘no’. So will this be the beginning of the gradual phase out of non Intel software.

  4. Mac12EightK wrote:

    “Fifty customers is hardly a reliable sample set, statistically speaking”

    Actually from my experience in market research (I was the Market Research Manager for a pharmaceutical company) 50 customers is fine as a sample size for a population size of 3 million users.

    The reason is that whilst there may be 3 million users, there is likely not 3 million purchasers (i.e customers)! If you accept that a design house/ad agency etc (or any other business that uses CS3/Mac hardware) may have 10, 20 50, 100, 200+ employees, then you don’t have to survey much more than 50 customers (i.e. the person deciding on the purchase) to get a VERY good (and statistically sound) idea of what will be happening.

    Also, no disrespect Mac12EightK, but PiperJaffray have a business based on assessing the size of markets, trends, market potential etc, I am sure they have a pretty good idea of what sort of sample size is necessary to get a reliable feeling for what is going to happen – it’s their job. They have come to some very specific conclusions from this data (i.e. a 7%/$0.04 EPS increase on previous estimates), it is unlikely they would do this from an underpowered sample size.

    I also note (from most of the MDN posts that PiperJaffray (and Gene Munster) tend to be better than most analysts when it comes to understanding and commenting on Apple’s business.

    my 2 cents,

    Luke

  5. Andy – CS3 will be a universal binary product

    Universal binary products currently and will install as either Intel OR Power PC versions, depending on the processor inside the Mac – that is why they are called Universal Binaries.

    Luke

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