“The release of Adobe’s Creative Suite 3.0 professional software package next year will be a catalyst for new sales of Apple Computer’s Intel-based Macintosh computers, according to one Wall Street analyst,” AppleInsider reports.
“PiperJaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster recently spoke with 50 Adobe customers and found that 24 percent expect to buy a new Mac within two quarters of the release of Adobe’s CS3. Due by April of 2007, CS3 will represent the first version of the creative software bundle that is fully optimized for Apple’s Intel-based Macs,” AppleInsider reports.
AppleInsider reports, “According to Munster, Adobe maintains a creative pro customer base of approximately 3 million users. With 10 percent having upgraded to a new Mac within the last 2 quarters, he assumes for analytical purposes that approximately 300,000 (150,000/quarter) Adobe creative pros already own Intel-based Macs.”\
Full article here.
MacNN also reports on Munster’s note, “Assuming 10 percent have upgraded to a new Mac over the last 2 quarters, we arrive at a figure of 300,000 (150,000 per quarter) Adobe creative pros that have purchased Intel-based Macs,” the analyst wrote. ‘If we assume that our forward estimates are also based on 150,000 per quarter Macs that are sold to Adobe’s creative pro customer base, we would come to a figure of 600,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros by the time CS3 ships in April of 2007. This leaves us with 2.4 million Adobe creative pro customers that are yet to move to a new Mac.'”
MacNN reports, “The analyst notes that if 24 percent of these customers upgrade to a new Mac within the first 2 quarters following the release of CS3 — the June and September quarters — industry watchers can expect 288,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros in each of those two quarters. ‘That would be 138,000 more Macs per quarter than we had been anticipating, as we had been using an estimate of 150,000 Macs per quarter to Adobe creative pros. 138,000 more Macs sold to Adobe customers per quarter would add 7 percent ($0.04) to our earnings-per-share estimate in both the June and September 2007 quarters.'”
Full article here.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Some Apple Mac loyalists turn against Adobe – November 01, 2006
Adobe manager lashes out at loyal Mac-using customers – October 31, 2006
Adobe Soundbooth audio software released as public beta – October 26, 2006
Apple and Adobe at war? – October 06, 2006
Analyst expects Adobe Creative Suite 3 release on May 1, 2007 – October 04, 2006
How long must we wait for Adobe to produce Universal applications for Apple’s Intel-powered Macs? – August 21, 2006
Adobe CS3 sneak peek shown on Apple MacBook Pro as Universal Binary application – May 25, 2006
Cringely: Apple must replace Microsoft Office, buy Adobe Systems for attack on Microsoft to succeed – April 28, 2006
Adobe CEO: Universal version of Photoshop due in spring 2007 – April 21, 2006
Adobe software engineer explains why Photoshop for Intel-based Macs is taking so long – March 24, 2006
Should Apple buy Adobe as leverage against Microsoft? – December 16, 2005
Adobe prefers (and promotes) PCs over Macs – March 24, 2003
Fifty customers is hardly a reliable sample set, statistically speaking.
Although I admit that these customers are probably heavy buyers (mac pros) and so represent a disproportionately large revenue portion.
Wouldn’t disagree with any of that.
When will Apple break through 2m Macs a quarter?
Apple had better be ready for the onslaught. With the quad core duos coming out ( 8 processors) in the near future, for the Mac Pros, and the amazing speed increases in CS3, not to mention X.5. It’s just gonna be silly. You’re gonna find a lot more than that buying new machines. Photoshop is KING. As a pro myself, why shuld I buy a machine now if my G5 runs photoshop faster than my Intel machine? It’s a waste till Adobe get’s it’s head out of it’s ass.
When it’s time the flood gates will open and we will all be back ordered
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” /> Let us also not forget that X.5 will probably have virtuilization built into the OS itself. Even more Windows users will switch. For these people to think they know what is going to sell, I think they just make up numbers and throw a dart!!!!
The Pi has spoken!
Yeah yeah. That is IF it is released in 2007! I’m waiiiiiitttinnnnnnng……..
To NeoVoyager:
We’re not talking about Microsoft here. Launch dates are usually pretty close
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-Pi
Mac12EightK –
Actually, a small sample size can be VERY accurate at estimating a complete population. The key is that it is a sample that represents the population. (So surveying 65 yr olds to determine interest in US citizens who might purchase an HD TV is not a great sample.)
see http://www.isixsigma.com/library/content/c000709a.asp
and scroll to the bottom “Small Sample Size” explanation.
I would sure like to see the questions asked. Does their survey take into account the 150,000 that are already buying WITHOUT CS2 availability? As it stands now, their survey is worthless. It could mean an incremental increase of 138,000, or an incremental increase of 288,000.
Also when they talk about CS2 useers buying Macs, do they mean Mac Pros, or any Mac. My feeling is that these are predominantly Mac Pro users, in which case the net effect of the increase in computer sales will be much higher than MacBook or low end iMac sales.
Frankly, I’m surprised the increase is only 24%. Its been a long time since CS2 has been upgraded for any reason. Also, it doesn’t take into account those CS2 users that are currently using Windows, and would switch to Macs with the latest CS2 upgrade.
I played with a Mac Pro running PSCS2 last week at the ABQ Uptown Apple Store opening (I love that the machines are loaded with software!), and I was pleasantly surprised by the performance in Rosetta. I put it through some paces, and noticed it was slightly slower than my Dual 2.5ghz G5 on some things, but actually seemed faster doing others.
I hope to talk my employer into getting me a Mac Pro when CS3 ships. Fingers crossed.
Running a mac pro with psd cs2, in real world work environment I’m regretting my Pro purchase, it chokes…a lot.
Thanks a bunch Adobe for being on the ball. 🙁
For my business, I’ll be incrementally upgrading the old towers the designers work on to those new Mac Pros when Adobe’s new software comes out. I’ve already gotten Mac Books for the sales folks. They love them. Lastly, by year’s end, I’ll be going from those old dual G4 tower servers Apple used to sell to the new Xserve. However, I’m keeping my 20″ G5 iMac on my desk. I just love it. All in all, I said all of that to say that even though Apple’s Macs have been selling well, I think they will sell more briskly once the new Adobe software drops. There will be a lot of design stations that will need to be upgraded.
Well, DUH.
That’s when I upgrade from G4 PowerBook to Core 2 MacBook Pro!
My project manager has promised to upgrade my dual 1Ghz G4 to a Mac Pro in the next month or two. But he says I’ll have to “suffer” with Rosetta emulation until CS3 is released.
Looks like I’m going to suffer, but I’ll be happy about it!
/HPPOA reference to obscure?
Until CS3 is out, I’msticking with my 15″ PowerBook, I’ve got CS1 on it and will will buy CS3 and a MacBook Pro when Adobe get their finger out of their ass.
Just seems funny to me, people are queuing up to buy CS3 and yet Adobe have not really announced anything about progress, features etc. I’d have thought they’d at least have a web page dedicated to it.
MW: study, Adobe need to study the XCode Manual!
At my work we’re waiting for CS3 before we pull the trigger on buying 30 Macs.
I just installed the new Acrobat Pro 8 on my Mac Pro and it SCREAMS. If the CS3 apps show as much improvement as Acrobat did when if finally went UB I will be ecstatic and Adobe will be forgiven. I can’t say enough about the difference in performance on the Intel machines that the new Acrobat exhibits. I am getting very excited now about native CS Suite apps!
@Cpt. Obvious:
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I am also waiting to upgrade Adobe licenses, replace 10 Macs, and also working on replacing 6 PCs.
Yup – no brainer – we need Adobe to get CS3 out, while we won’t order 50 Macs like the guy above – we will be ordering 5 (we’re a small company). It’s all I am waiting for – got the cash cluched in my sweaty little hand. C’mon Adobe – I love CS2 – we NEED CS3.
Our school lab I work in (25 PowernMac machines) skipped an upgrade cycle last year and spent the $$ on other things, so we would have funds to upgrade them all this coming summer with the Mac Pros when all the software (including Maya 8.5–yay!) will be UB.
I have a feeling there are a _lot_ of other businesses and ed. institutions that took the same course of action. Next summer could be huge for Apple–and of course we might be waiting quite a while to get those machines in our hands if they don’t plan for it
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Can someone answer me a realy dumb question. Will the CS3 version (or anything for that matter, written for the Intel Macs) run on a non Intel Mac. I understand that non Intel mac software can run on the Intels with Rosseta, Parallels or whatever, but does it work the other way round. Of course I’m guessing ‘no’. So will this be the beginning of the gradual phase out of non Intel software.
Mac12EightK wrote:
“Fifty customers is hardly a reliable sample set, statistically speaking”
Actually from my experience in market research (I was the Market Research Manager for a pharmaceutical company) 50 customers is fine as a sample size for a population size of 3 million users.
The reason is that whilst there may be 3 million users, there is likely not 3 million purchasers (i.e customers)! If you accept that a design house/ad agency etc (or any other business that uses CS3/Mac hardware) may have 10, 20 50, 100, 200+ employees, then you don’t have to survey much more than 50 customers (i.e. the person deciding on the purchase) to get a VERY good (and statistically sound) idea of what will be happening.
Also, no disrespect Mac12EightK, but PiperJaffray have a business based on assessing the size of markets, trends, market potential etc, I am sure they have a pretty good idea of what sort of sample size is necessary to get a reliable feeling for what is going to happen – it’s their job. They have come to some very specific conclusions from this data (i.e. a 7%/$0.04 EPS increase on previous estimates), it is unlikely they would do this from an underpowered sample size.
I also note (from most of the MDN posts that PiperJaffray (and Gene Munster) tend to be better than most analysts when it comes to understanding and commenting on Apple’s business.
my 2 cents,
Luke
Andy – CS3 will be a universal binary product
Universal binary products currently and will install as either Intel OR Power PC versions, depending on the processor inside the Mac – that is why they are called Universal Binaries.
Luke