Switch To A Mac’s prediction for Apple Mac unit sales proves accurate

“In my October 10, 2006 preview I predicted that Apple would ship 1.64 million Macintosh computers during the 2006 fiscal fourth quarter. My analysis and projection was based on analyzing data from Apple’s Q1, Q2, and Q3 data for 2006, Macintosh releases during the year, and events that transpired during the fourth quarter,” Switch To A Mac writes.

“Be sure to read that article to see how I reached the 1.64 million number. My prediction exceeded the actual number by a mere 30,000 units as I over estimated portable (MacBook and MacBook Pro) units by 14,000 units and desktops (iMac, MacPro, Mac mini, and PowerMac) units by 16,000. The breakdown of portables and desktops were almost exactly on target,” STAM writes.

STAM writes, “What I’d like to point out is that my prediction was more accurate than those put forth by Wall Street analysts and investment firms. When taken together, they had a consensus estimate of 1.47 million Mac sold in the quarter. My prediction exceeded the actual number by only 1.9 percent. The consensus analyst estimate underestimated the number by 8.7 percent! It’s clear that those analysts missed the mark and they still don’t understand the shift in the mindset of purchasers. Perhaps today’s earnings will begin to open their eyes.”

Full article here.

Related MacDailyNews article:
Apple Q4 earnings results: $546M net profit on $4.84B revenue, sold 1.61M Macs, 8.729M iPods – October 18, 2006
Apple to announce sales of 1.64 million Macs for quarter? – October 10, 2006


  1. STAM’s numerical prediction was impressive, and I want to agree with him [my investment money is where my heart is], but the reality is that the raw numbers–forget the percentages–are still too small to know for sure. When we see the trend to purchase Apple sustain through next year, as Tom Yager of Infoworld also predicted, then we’ll know we’ve got it. But I completely agree with STAM on one point: the analysts don’t yet fully appreciate what is happening with the platform.

  2. Back in July I said that Mac unit sales would be closer to 2 million than 1 million. With a full quarter for notebook sales, the upcoming — then — back to school season, the reports of huge MacBook shipments and the 3rd quarter base of 1.3 million units sold, it was obvious — even if the Wall Street anal-ists stayed in denial.

    Why does anyone pay the for the product of those who consistently don’t get it?

  3. “It’s not surprising his prediction was more accurate. He’s not burdened by the numerous, highly monetized conflicts of interest that the Wall Street analysts have.”

    Exactly, Take a look at the downward pressure the stock has been experiencing lately…options expire on Sat. A lot of people who wrote calls this summer are probably going to take a big hit.

  4. I hate to brag, but way back in 4th grade i wrote an essay for a class assignment in which i forecast that Apple would sell 1.57m macs and 8.9m ipods in 4Q06. i received a strong grade for penmanship but regrettably i did not hang on to the graded copy so i can only assure you this is so.

  5. Well, I predicted Apple would sell 1.6 million Macs in 4Q06 when I was two, and i wrote it in script on an Etch-a-Sketch (at that time, or course, I preferred laptops).

    My mother stored the thing in the back of a closet to keep it as proof of my genius. But she put it away upside down so the screen wouldn’t get dirty. Then we had a bad earthquake. Now I can only look back at my prediction in anguish.

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