Analysts at JMP Securities have reiterated their “Strong Buy” rating on Apple Computer (AAPL).
JMP Securities have raised their target price on AAPL from $76 to $84.
Related articles:
Soleil reiterates ‘Buy’ rating on Apple, raises target price – October 19, 2006
Banc of America reiterates ‘Buy’ rating on Apple, raises price target – October 19, 2006
Analysts now clearly see Apple Mac resurgence – October 19, 2006
Analyst: Apple formula working to lead Mac resurgence, Apple’s growth rate should accelerate in ‘07 – October 19, 2006
BW: Record-breaking quarterly Mac sales put Apple into the running for a top computer-maker spot – October 19, 2006
Jim Cramer: Apple’s quarter showed how poorly the also-rans are faring – October 19, 2006
Apple profit rises 27%, Mac up 30%, iPod up 35%; stock jumps – October 19, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 5.8% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 6.1% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Apple Financial Results Conference Call Q4-2006 Live Notes – October 18, 2006
Apple shares rocket 6.5% in after-hours trading on stellar earnings report – October 18, 2006
Apple Q4 earnings results: $546M net profit on $4.84B revenue, sold 1.61M Macs, 8.729M iPods – October 18, 2006
I think their upgrade is a day late and a few dollars short. I want a job as an analyst.
<Hugging>
Hey, the same thing I said about B of A. You guys sure know how to predict… and I’m looking for a job, because it sure looks easy. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb here and say it’ll go up to $85… someday.
I predict it will go to $79…today.
I am An Analyst. Hear Me Roar.
I predict: AAPL will continue to rise steadily through the holidays season and reach into the low 100’s by January. iPhone announced at MW, Cinema iPod before Xmas. 2-for-1 split in February. 16 million iPods for the holiday quarter.
Pay me!
-c
MW: “union” (of the snake)
I suspect weakening of the price until Monday since the October options expire on Sat.
I’m sure a lot of people who wrote call options back when the price was $60 and dropping are getting ready to lose a lot of $$. Those players will try to manipulate the market just prior to expiration. Apple will probably drop tomorrow (Fri.) from the gains of this AM.
I’m working my way up the MDN articles list and laughing my ass off at the “courage” and “wisdom” of the anal-ists for predicting these paltry gains over the next twelve months. Clueless!
In a couple of years (if I live that long, old guy that I am), when I need to take some profits, I expect my AAPL to be well into the seven figures. Actually, I expect to hit that milestone by one years time.
To the folks complaining about analysts: You’ve missed the boat.
On October 19, 2006, the day after the Q4 FY2006 earnings report, four analyst firms reiterated their Buy or Strong Buy recommendations on AAPL and increased their price targets. Here is the complete list:
UBS reiterated Buy, price target went from $92 to $95.
Soleil reiterated Buy, price target went from $85 to $90.
JMP Securities reiterated Strong Buy, price target went from $76 to $84.
Banc of America reiterated Buy, price target went from $79 to $84.
(Btw, these are target prices that are expected 6 months or 1 year from now, depending on the firm issuing it.)
Two things stand out from the above list. First, it is significant that ALL of these firms are reiterating their buy ratings and increasing their price targets – there’s no contrary voice pointing to a fly in the ointment.
Second, it is definitely significant that all of the price target increases are quite modest – about 5% to 10%.
So what’s the real meaning of all the above activity? That the current share price of $79 is unsustainable, at least in the short term.
These analysts are sending the following messages:
Prospective shareholders: If you want to go long on AAPL, wait for a pullback, say to the low $70s or high $60s, and then enter the stock.
Apple executives: If you want analysts to raise your price targets and eps and revenue projections, then start answering questions more forthrightly on the conference calls already.
Here’s why the analysts are saying the above messages:
Weighing down on AAPL are the serious matters of (a) the ongoing options investigations still has not been resolved, three months after it began, and (b) that gross and operating margins are lighter than expected, due to iPod price cuts and increased component costs. (Falling margins are never a good sign.)
Less serious, but still worrying, are the facts that (c) iPod rate of growth has started to slow down, and (d) Apple executives on the conference call were completely unwilling to provide any significant color on current revenues, future guidance, or the options investigations.
More broadly, the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are all currently overbought, and due for a correction. This could easily be a 3% to 5% correction. A rising tide lifts all boats, and a falling tide takes everyone down.
Taking all the above into account, what these analysts are saying is that AAPL will fall before it rises in 2006. And AAPL may rise in 2007, but a year from now, AAPL will probably be around $85-$90, at least based on information currently available to analysts.
You may agree or disagree with that assessment, but don’t accuse these analysts of playing follow the leader. They are following the available data, and right now the data on AAPL is signaling a long-term bullish and short term bearish stance. Which is what the analysts are reporting.
Mo Mo trader,
Sorry, you are a classic of the kind. You want every possible bit of data to be able to make your predictions and you tell Apple execs that: “If you want analysts to raise your price targets and eps and revenue projections, then start answering questions more forthrightly on the conference calls already.”
Why should they work to satisfy YOUR ability to make predictions? Apple will produce results that correlate to the quality of their products and the willingness of customers to buy them. Is there any need to be more fancy than that? Can’t you make those judgements without bucketloads of minutiae?
So, if Apple customers like those represented on this forum can make better projections than the analysts, as has been shown to be the case over the last three years and more, then that says just one thing…the analayst aren’t as good as they think they are. With all their data and ‘openly answered questions’, they get bogged down in their own complicated pile of MS spreadsheets.
Macaday:
Apple as recently as last quarter (Q3 FY2006) was far more forthcoming on the conference call with color on the earnings and guidance. In Q4 FY2006, Apple suddenly changed to answering virtually no questions. This came without any warning and was contrary to Apple’s own prior track record of answering questions. Such opacity is clearly not helpful to either analysts or shareholders in quantifying the company’s results and future prospects.
You obviously have no use for analysts, and that’s fine with me – I’m not an analyst, nor am I trying to convince you of their merits (or lack thereof).
For me, as a trader, I’m interested in anticipating what institutional investors are interested in, and these institutions typically follow the recommendations of analysts. That’s why I follow analyst upgrades and downgrades, and that’s why I’ve tried to learn how to decode what analysts are really saying.
Best wishes.