Analyst: Apple formula working to lead Mac resurgence, Apple’s growth rate should accelerate in ‘07

Shares of Apple (up $4.54 to $79.07 rose over 6 percent in afternoon trading on Nasdaq. Shares of rivals Microsoft (down $0.32 to $28.20) and Dell (down $1.58 to $23.12) edged lower.

CNNMoney.com reports, “Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster said in a note to clients reported by Reuters that Apple’s results show its ‘formula is working’ as the popularity of its iPods is translating into a ‘resurgence in the Mac platform. We believe in six months the halo effect will expand beyond a simple iPod-to-Mac correlation into a four-way relationship with iPod, Mac, iPhone, and iTV benefiting from each other’s success. If this plays out, Apple’s growth rate should accelerate in 2007.'”

Full article here.

Related articles:
BW: Record-breaking quarterly Mac sales put Apple into the running for a top computer-maker spot – October 19, 2006
Jim Cramer: Apple’s quarter showed how poorly the also-rans are faring – October 19, 2006
Apple profit rises 27%, Mac up 30%, iPod up 35%; stock jumps – October 19, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 5.8% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 6.1% of U.S. market share in Q3 06 – October 18, 2006
Apple Financial Results Conference Call Q4-2006 Live Notes – October 18, 2006
Apple shares rocket 6.5% in after-hours trading on stellar earnings report – October 18, 2006
Apple Q4 earnings results: $546M net profit on $4.84B revenue, sold 1.61M Macs, 8.729M iPods – October 18, 2006

20 Comments

  1. Mark my words: Eventually the Mac will be the computer everyone uses at home. Windows will be that clumsy piece of crap you have to use at work. The only remaining hurdle is satisfying the gaming community, and big strides are being made in that area.

  2. I say that these guys still just do not get it. They see Apple growing and growing and have to give it some reason. Ahhhh, “the halo effect” yea thats it, thats the only reason.!!! “

    A better, nicer looking computer, better service, people who care, etc, etc. And MIcrosoft just goes around and around the toilet bowl. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    Oh well, maybe they will actually understand it all in retrospect. LOL ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

    N.

  3. [snort!]
    “If this plays out, Apple’s growth rate should accelerate in 2007.”

    This guy either did not attend Business School, or he didn’t pay attention in class. Sure, Apple will see a lot of “growth” in 2007, but that will not translate into an “accelerated growth rate” or to huge profits. iTS (I miss the ‘M’) will grow by adding more video and the like – but it’s hardly a high-profit niche. And the iPhone will have thousands of percent growth – from 0 to “lots”. The anticipated vPod will generate some sales – OK, very profitable sales – but I doubt the total iPod market will grow more than a dozen percentage points. Leaving the Mac. It is extremely unlikely that the Mac will continue to grow at its current rate. Apple would have to get its foot in the door with business desktops and world-wide sales for that to happen. That’s a lot to expect. Growth? Certainly. Double-digit growth in sales? Sure. Double-digit growth in market share? OK. Apple can do all the above with half the growth it saw this year. Unless they can crack those other markets, half is the best they can hope for.

  4. Yes the word is getting out, but there are still a lot of people who say Macs are too expensive, they prefer windows (had that conversation with someone at work just yesterday).

    But I believe Apple are the only ones change the way we uses computers and that will attract more and more users.

    Having more retailers sell macs is important, getting the message out even more and coming out with new cool gizmos.

    Apple could get 10 % PC share in the US by the end of 2007. More important is getting 5 % share world wide.

  5. “Apple could get 10 % PC share in the US by the end of 2007. More important is getting 5 % share world wide.”
    —–
    I believe this will happen, with or without the four way dealy outlined. Windows is losing mindshare – and that will accelerate. Macs will fill the vacuum. Easy.

  6. “Apple could get 10 % PC share in the US by the end of 2007. More important is getting 5 % share world wide.”
    —–
    I believe this will happen, with or without the four way dealy outlined. Windows is losing mindshare – and that will accelerate. Macs will fill the vacuum. Easy.

  7. “Apple could get 10 % PC share in the US by the end of 2007. More important is getting 5 % share world wide.”
    —–
    I believe this will happen, with or without the four way dealy outlined. Windows is losing mindshare – and that will accelerate. Macs will fill the vacuum. Easy.

  8. DLMeyer,
    Munster said iTV, not iTS. You do know what iTV is, don’t you?

    Apple will see accelerated growth and increased profits in both its FY2007 and CY2007.

    For the iPod as music player, the US market is only about 10% saturated today, and if all goes well for Apple, it possibly will be 15% saturated after Christmas. It’s still in DVR territory, and there’s a long way to go. (Internationally, there are pockets that are more saturated and pockets that are even less saturated.)

    Now, the music player market is evolving, and we won’t come close to 90% saturation for just a “music-only player” like we do for TVs and VCRs/DVD players. But Apple is evolving the music player into both the cell phone market (highly saturated but people buy new phones just about every other year) and the video player market (some saturation when including portable DVD players). So, many people who would not have bought a music-only player will now be willing to get a cell phone-music player, or get a music-video player. And many people will buy one in each category. So there is huge growth still to come – Microsoft may be make not know how to make great products, but don’t mistake Microsoft’s “belated” Zune entry as lacking foresight into the market opportunity.

    Back in the home, Apple will aim to sell at least one iTV into every household (110 million households in the US alone) and even more than one iTV, since most people have more than one TV. Getting video from the Internet/computer to the TV easily and conveniently has been the big obstacle in increasing content delivery over the Internet. If the iTV solves this problem, the demand is there. And the tie between the iTV and the iPod is very real – the H.264 video format via Quicktime/ iTunes. It will be most convenient for people to have files that can easily play in both, so if your one of the millions that have a video iPod, the iTV becomes the most convenient, and vice versa. And though a PC will work for iTV and iTunes, Apple will now intertwine the Mac-only iLife, so the creation of your own video or audio (podcasts) for the iPod/iTV will be easiest on the Mac.

    I agree that we can still write off the corporate computer market. But the consumer market is also huge (110 million households in the US, most with 1 computer already and adding to it). In a given year, US consumers (not businesses) will buy somewhere between 10-20 million computers; next year will likely be at the lower end as the cycles are aligned with the Y2K upgrade, except that Vista could cause more people to consider buying a new PC. And it’s in this discontinuity, that Apple aims to steal a good portion of those sales. (The analysis for the rest of the world is a bit different, but clearly the US, UK, and Japan are the largest consumer markets for computers – places where Apple has a presence.)

    I know the stock has already gone up 50% in the last couple of months, and many are scared to get in now. But Munster is right, the big money is still to be made, and Apple is primed to be the one to make it next year and even the next 3 to 5 years. Of course, Apple can make mistakes and screw it up, but the opportunity is very much there.

    Sorry for the length, but I just felt that your post needed a real rebuttal.

  9. Apple is in the processes of taking the leadership position in the consumer electronics industry. While I have far more personal interest in computers than in the other devices, those other devices present a huge market and Apple is going after the key controlling — the integrating – pieces. I saw the possibilities talked about here and that is why, years ago, I put the majority of my investment money where my mouth was and still is – in AAPL. I smile a lot lately.

  10. Apples tipping point is just a few Macs and iPods away from take off…

    Jobs lit the touchpaper to the Mac OS X primer rocket engine in 2001, but it’s now igniting the main booster rocket after the switch to Intel.

    They lit the fuse on the iPod and iTMS in 2001 and that ignited its main rocket engine in 2005, it’s running on pure oxygen now.

    Then they prematurely set alight the fuse on iTV, we can see the fuse glowing away, but it won’t ignite until the new year. Expect it to go ballistic pretty quickly too.

    And lastly (as if!) the rumour mill is making bonfires all over the place as they try and make Jobs ignite the iPhone fuse. Once that rocket engine fires up expect the whole of Apple to be projected so far ahead and above everyone else the simple inertia of it will keep Apple ahead of allcomers for at least five years.

    All that may make a ‘more normal company’ rest on its successes and be carried to the stars. The fantastic thing for us is that Apple has innovation in its DNA. The success it generates from all these rocket engines burning so strongly at the same time will mean more resources for more astounding new products and ideas. Probably for things we can’t even envision yet.

    I think we are witnessing a phenomena that will make a big, big mark in the 21st century…

    I personally take my hat off and make a low low bow to Jobs, Ives, Cook, Schiller and all their equally important merry men who have brought this about.

  11. Apple seems to have a strategy of providing the same ‘core’ of a product that the market has or wants, but adds a ‘must have’ component that the others cannot have.

    Macs – run core Windows, but they cannot run MacOS X
    iPod – runs core MP3/CDs, but they cannot run FairPlay
    Accessories – run as core speakers, but iPod-killers cannot connect to iPod dock

    Speculation
    iTV – runs core movies, but they cannot run on iPod, view YouTube, play games, support multiple TVs, link with iLife
    iPhone – runs core phone messages, but they cannot do iChat VoIP, use FairPlay

    This is not anti-competitive, but is innovation. You could buy an alternative, but why miss out on the Apple-only extras. Apple is becoming the only ‘safe’ consumer electronics company (like Sony used to be) since you know their products all work with each other and work better than any other company’s.

    Magic word ‘Union’ as in unions have layers.

  12. Holy Moly Holy Mackeral may be right. There is a thread there., I don’t recall seeing that written down before…

    And as you say it keeps Apple innovation in their own products, and makes them unmissable to the consumer. Way to go Apple…

    “I see Zunes of brown, chairs being thrown
    Computers too ‘cos Ballmers down
    And I think to myself, it’s an AppleMacWorld….

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.