“If you were counting on Leopard gaining an advantage from shipping before Vista, it looks like you’re out of luck. Vista is in its last test release before shipment, and historically, the final release candidate becomes the supported RTM (ready to market) product. OEMs and volume licensees are expecting November delivery of the finished Vista, and the onesie twosie, shrink-wrap buyers will see Vista early next year. Subscribers to MSDN (Microsoft Developer Network, Microsoft’s counterpart to the paid flavor of Apple Developer Connection) will probably get the RTM code sometime between those two dates,” Tom Yager writes for InfoWorld.
“To the dismay of so many observers, when Vista goes RTM, it’ll explode. It’ll shatter every standing record for software units and revenue in a given period of time. It’ll bury everything else in a mudslide of press coverage, and it’ll even make story #4 or #5 in non-technical publications and network news. I predict a BusinessWeek cover,” Yager writes. “One could say that Vista’s got a greased track to record sales: PC models that currently ship with Windows XP will begin shipping with Vista.”
Yager writes, “So Winter will be all about Vista. Where, oh where does this leave Apple? When Vista reviews start running, we’ll see the professional and lay media pile on with the predictions of doom for OS X and the “too little, too late” Leopard that journalists have never seen outside apple.com. Vista is it, and Macs are at a disadvantage for not shipping with Vista. Journalists of that ilk will null the value of OS X and insist that the true cost of a Mac is the machine plus the copy of Vista that really makes it work. There will be plenty of reasons for the Mac faithful to sound a call to arms.”
“It’s interesting that although Microsoft borrowed heavily from Tiger’s look and feel, Microsoft didn’t capture the human-factored behavior that spawned Tiger’s visual elements. At its heart, Vista is Windows, plus a collection of modernized UI widgets for developers and a bucket for the marketable ideas that emerged from Microsoft Research. Tiger and Leopard bake consistent behavior, look and feel and integration into everything from its dev tools to its Web browser. Vista can’t go there: Windows will always be an operating system. Don’t get me wrong; Vista is a huge step for Windows, a real godsend for those stuck in the Windows XP rut. But Apple will retain the state-of-the-art title, and applications will still rank it #1 in their compendium of best places to live,” Yager writes.
Full article, in which Yager also writes, The media wags and flame-baiters will have a nice run through early January until MacWorld shuts them up. Steve Jobs had a wink in his voice when he projected Leopard’s Spring delivery during his WWDC keynote, here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Jimbo von Winskinheimer” for the heads up.]
MacDailyNews Take: Apple would get the most PR bang by releasing Leopard after Vista, not before. Let the media compare Mac OS X Tiger to Windows Vista, Apple has nothing to fear there. Let Tiger have it’s well-deserved kudos. Then when it dies down a bit, drop Leopard and let the media do their head-to-heads all over again. Apple wins twice instead of just once.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Pirillo: Microsoft’s Windows Vista will double Apple’s market share – October 13, 2006
What if Microsoft held a Windows Vista party and nobody came? – October 13, 2006
CNET: Microsoft’s Windows Vista still not ready for prime time – October 12, 2006
Thurrott: ‘You don’t need Windows Vista’ – October 11, 2006
Microsoft’s Windows Vista spyware may prompt users to upgrade to Apple Mac – October 09, 2006
Windows Vista gaming will be 10-15 percent slower than XP – October 09, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft’s new activation scheme will give users another reason not to upgrade to Vista – October 05, 2006
IT Managers: Do you need Windows Vista or should you ‘Get a Mac?” – September 11, 2006
Infoworld: Microsoft’s WIndows Vista not so revolutionary after all – September 11, 2006
Pirillo: Windows Vista RC1 disappointing, schizophrenic, disordered, inconsistent, and sad – September 07, 2006
Key Microsoft exec exits as clock ticks down on oft-delayed, much pared-down Windows Vista release – September 06, 2006
$399 for Windows Vista Ultimate?! (Hint: Get a Mac) – August 29, 2006
Development approaches of Mac OS X Leopard vs. Windows Vista yield very different results – August 15, 2006
Analyst: Apple’s new Mac OS X Leopard sets new bar, leaves Microsoft’s Vista in the dust – August 08, 2006
Symantec researcher: At this time, there are no file-infecting viruses that can infect Mac OS X – July 13, 2006
Sophos: Apple Mac OS X’s security record unscathed; Windows Vista malware just a matter of time – July 07, 2006
Computerworld: Microsoft Windows Vista a distant second-best to Apple Mac OS X – June 02, 2006
Computerworld: Apple’s Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Time Machine’ is truly remarkable – October 05, 2006
InfoWorld’s Yager: Apple will take computing to the next level with Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard – September 06, 2006
Apple’s Mac OS X Leopard is 64-bit done right, unlike Microsoft’s Windows Vista kludge – August 14, 2006
Mac OS X Leopard sneak peek highlights – August 09, 2006
Analyst: Apple’s new Mac OS X Leopard sets new bar, leaves Microsoft’s Vista in the dust – August 08, 2006
Inside Apple Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Spaces’ – August 07, 2006
Take a ride in Apple Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Time Machine’ – August 07, 2006
Apple previews Mac OS X Leopard featuring Time Machine, Spaces, enhanced Mail & iChat, and more – August 07, 2006
Apple previews Mac OS X Server Leopard; to ship in spring 2007 – August 07, 2006
They should call it Vasa instead of Vista, after that ill-fated flag ship of the Swedish king that capsized right after launch.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regalskeppet_Vasa>
When Vista and Leopard are released people will see that by the time Vista has booted up the girl has got up and left… Meanwhile Leopard will plug in immediately to your sensory systems.
So Leopard will appeal to everyone who loves, loves sex, is creative and is free of Stockholm Syndrome.
So that leaves Vista ideally suited to dumb terminals, Steve Ballmer and Homer Simpson.
good one hagar57
MS Windows ‘Vasa’ it is then…
iPhone iPhone iPhone iPhone iPhone
iPhone iPhone iPhone iPhone iPhone
The article is correct. Vista will get instant sales success due to being included with new PCs, and tech rags will fall over themselves in the game of Emperor’s New Clothes.
Still won’t be any good though. Not unless you’re coming up from XP anyway.
I am sick and tired of crapola quotes that M$ has 95% of the market. Such bad statistics ignore a few simple facts.
* Apple is the 4th ranked hardware supplier in the USA and the 5th or 6th ranked world wide.
* Apple computers (ignoring servers) have a useful life expectancy with their first owner that is about 3 times longer than Windows based computers.
* Every installation of Linux (well almost – now that some OEM’s will now ship with it) replaces a Windows install.
* The market share of M$ on ISP’s serving the Internet market is in 3rd place behind Linux and Solaris.
* On the list of the world’s top 500 supercomputers more entries are running OSX than Windows.
* There have been a significant number of surveys (including some I have run for my clients) that show the actual installed base of Apple computers represents about 15-16% of the Internet connected users with Linux running close behind and that the M$ percentage is just over 70% and falling.
* The current RC for Vista (RC2 I think) is unlikely to be the final release – why, because M$ themselves have announced that they intend to make changes to the security core to open it up to 3rd party security management products – in order to defend against anti-monopoly action and the current problems with the European Courts. So look for RC3 sometime soon.
* About 50% of the M$ installed base is corporate machines. Corporates are notoriously slow at adopting new versions. Most are just considering rolling out W2K3 based infrastructure now. They wont get serious with Vista for maybe another 2 or 3 years at least.
IMHO M$ is in trouble. The rumblings of the landslide are already beginning and cracks are starting to appear in some strange places. When some of the worlds leading universities report Apple sales figures over 40% and Linux sales over 30% with M$ in 3rd spot then you know it has begun, and guys – this has already happened. I do not believe that M$ will founder any time soon. Too many large corporates and governments cannot afford to let that happen. But I think careful examination of history will reveal that this very dependancy puts M$ in the same spot AT&T was in before they were broken up into the 12 companies. I think in a few years M$ will be unable to resist legal efforts to break them up and the new stand alone operating system division will struggle to survive. Business and politics do not like too much power in the hands of one company.
I do predict that Vista will be the last straw and the crumble of M$ will become apparent to all. The much touted .NET security aspects of Vista (touted by M$ for years) have been removed and replaced by a bespoke, not standard (yet), not accessible hodge podge that had active virii developed and released into the wild before the ink was dry on the 10,000th copy (so much for the obscurity myth). The new anti piracy enforcement of crippling the install if it thinks it has been compromised will make way for a new crop of virii where the payload is simply to make Vista think it has been pirated. Vista will then digest itself and do all its own damage.
Bill Gates has always personally had a good sense of timing and opportunity. I met his first nearly 30 years ago. Do not underrate his intelligence. But even he knows when to get out of the kitchen. By timing things for his stepping out of M$ business activities, he should be out from under when the balloon goes pop. Good one Bill. I too would sooner see the dancing monkey, the chair throwing ape, be in charge to receive all the rotton eggs when it does go pop. We may not like much of what M$ has done to computers, but those of us who can remember what it was like before know that M$ is largely responsible for the current affordable level, for many of the standards, and so on.
Still, I shall enjoy watching Rome (figure of speech) burn. I think the flames will make a photogenic Vista but the only way to avoid smoke inhalation will be to keep the Windows closed.
Apple needs to have one to two minute infomercials with Leopard !!!
I think a few things need to be said. The first is that Vista competes with OS X Tiger, which has been out for a while now, not Leopard. The next thing is that Vista is going to be very expensive for those who do not purchase it with a computer, around $399 per copy I believe. The next thing is that the Aero feature that makes it look like OS X are pretty resource hungry, so unless the consumer buys a fairly expensive computer, they won’t be able to use aero features. I can honestly say I hope Microsoft does well with Vista, I have no reason to hate them. I just don’t think they will.
“Fenman”, spot on analysis and very well written, bad sadly wasted here in MDN and their ilk.
Everytime I hear the Mac haters go on their rant I think about this: the truth will reveal itself. The real world performs on actions, not words. Let them say whatever wildly inaccurate things they want to about the Mac. The truth is it works. The problem lies in people buying a Mac and then expecting it to be exactly like Windows. They have grown so accustomed to all the hoops they have to jump through just to make the computer function adequately that they aren’t aware that there is a better way of making a computer work. Personally, I have this experience. My sister has had about 4 different computers, various Dell and Gateway brands. For each one she had to spend hours and hours setting them up and maintaining them. I have had 3 Macs and each time I opened the box, plugged it in, and it worked.
Fenman,
How long did it take you to come up with that last line? Brilliant!
From,
The MDN ilk (lookin’ at you M di L B Simoni)
The reason this analysis could be right for a short time is that the overwhelming percentage of doze sales are NOT retail-it is bundled with a new box. Dull will probably pay no more than the approximately $50 per copy, if that, that they’ve always paid. The upgraders, small box builders, yeah, they’ll get nailed by the obscene pricing. But overall it won’t matter; the $399 (and less for an upgrade) price will be paid by 5% of buyers at most. M$ could forgo all retail sales and not miss a beat. Price isn’t a factor here. Even M$ is not that dumb to totally price itself out of the market.
Millions of people are passionate about pro football (American). I wouldn’t watch if you paid me. It’s the same way with software. We believe in OS X; the vast majority of people don’t care. They’ll buy a new dull or HP like they always have, and since most computer sales are to businesses anyway, high Vista sales are a no-brainer.
But I think Apple will get the press back when you can really compare Vista to Leopard in the home market anyway.
I keep having images in my head of PC users exuberantly ripping the wrapping paper off packages containing their Christmas presents only to find argyle socks from old Aunt Martha. The most “powerful” versions of Vista are over-priced and devoid of many of the features and functions that Microsoft promised 5 years ago. Add to this the fact that Vista power-users will have to dig deep to upgrade their PCs will discourage a significant number of PC users to “upgrade”. By the time Leopard is released PC users and Microsoft stockholders will be wanting the heads of Ballmer and Gates. Microsoft’s Vista flop will mirror the devastation and embarrassment of the Arizona Cardinals versus the Chicago Bears Monday 18 October 2006.
Well who’s going to line up at Circuit City to buy Vista? Gamers, so they can run with 15% slower frame rates than they can now?
That’ll make VISTA D.O.A. for much of the gamers. No big crush from gamers, no one lined up to buy this polished cow chip.
Vista will explode alright, like projectile diarrhea from Ballmer’s fat ass.
Cubert – thanks for the compliment. Although I have several decades of professional computing experience I am also (like last year) a recently published poet and so words are my tool. I guess I got lucky with that last line – it took marginally longer to think of it than it did to write. Glad you liked it, it’s yours. lol.
Of course we all know that the best way to keep out those annoying bugs is to close all the windows. After all, bugs fly in through open windows. (quoting my old friend and colleague Obi from Frankfurt Germany)
Cheers all.
Very odd for you to M di L B Simoni, to suggest that MDN is a lower class of Mac user..since you seem to post here as inanely and as often as many others…
Pot calling the kettle black..springs to mind!
Oh, and great analysis fenman. I absolutely agree that we moved towards the Tipping Point some time ago.And no, it’s not wasted here by the way.
Although there always is loads excess wordage (postage?) here, the good thing about MDN is it’s easy to scan through many posts, and therefore easier to find the gems…
Signore Buonarotti gets above himself occasionally. Must be from painting all those ceilings
ya’ll have no clue – the release will be a blip. reviews will centre around what vista could do better. people wont upgrade cuz either: 1. their comp is ok without the upgrade, 2. business will be scared to upgrade due to all the new foibles, 3. they are sick of pcs and will move to mac.
Hey Macaday,
I suspect that M di L B Simoni comments about the disproportionate number of M$ apologists masquerading as Mac users who post on this site. It does not take many brains to identify many of them.
Anyway thanks for your comment.
I guess Ballmers future will be looking through Windows at a Vista of s*** brown Zunes. We should pity him.
” . . . bugs fly in through open windows.”
Nice line! But I’d like to add that many more bugs stick to closed Windows. A real, messy pane.
Ampar,
but at least if windows are closed the bugs remain outside.
while the guy does make some points namely the fact that Vista will ship on every crapbox known to man he ignores the fact that OS X already has momentum… not to mention features that are now commonplace for Mac users and fails to mention that Vista, after all the things that were promised then dropped out of it, will be released as not much more than XP Service Pack 3.
but then the article isnt about the facts, isn’t it?
“but at least if windows are closed the bugs remain outside”
And worms come out of rotten apples
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Copy Cat syndrome.
I just hope that Apple advertises enough so that people know that MS copied Apple and not the other way around.
Most PC users think that MS created the “window” theme and that Apple came AFTER Windows. If they even think or know there is an alternative OS.
Apple needs to not let that way of thinking continue.
But bottom line – Apple needs to advertise its OS!