Pirillo: Microsoft’s Windows Vista will double Apple’s market share

“The industry hasn’t seen a new desktop OS come from Redmond since Windows XP,” Chris Pirillo writes for Computer Power User. “We’ve all been waiting with bated breath for Vista to revolutionize the way we . . . what the hell is this?! RC1 feels and looks more like an early beta than it does a final product, and they want me to fork over how much for it?”

“Off the shelf, Windows Vista Ultimate will cost the user $399 per copy, with subsequent licenses weighing in at $359 each. Upgrade prices for Ultimate are slightly less exorbitant ($259 for the initial upgrade and $233 for additional copies). If you’re planning on upgrading your home network of five machines, you’re going to spend $1,191 for five Ultimate upgrades. Conservatively, if you’re upgrading the same network to Home Basic, you’re going to spend $460,” Pirillo writes.

“I’m a nanometer away from switching my family over to OS X when Apple releases Leopard in Q1 of 2007. It looks clean and elegant. It comes with all the software and services the average user could ever want. It runs on the same hardware. A system will be able to dual-boot between OS X and Windows, and pricing is no longer astronomical. But most importantly? With its UI inconsistencies, Vista feels completely schizophrenic, and that’s enough of a reason for anybody to leave Windows in the dust,” Pirillo writes.

“Yesterday’s arguments don’t really hold water in today’s marketplace, and as a serious technologist, you need to recognize that. Forget the whole ‘Windows has more software’ debate because that’s absolute bunk. More and more, we’re moving our lives online, spending our day in an email client and/or a Web browser,” Pirillo writes.

MacDailyNews Note: “Windows has more software” is not just “absolute bunk” because we’re spending so much time in a Web browser. “Windows has more software” is “absolute bunk” because the statement is patently false. Only Apple Mac can run Mac OS X and Windows and Linux. No other PC can do such a thing. Apple Macs can run more software than any other personal computer in the world. Period.

Pirillo continues, “Remember how you felt when you saw ‘The Phantom Menace’ for the first time? I was overwhelmingly disappointed. That’s exactly how Windows Vista RC1 makes me feel, and that’s not very likely to change between now and when the OS goes gold… Between Apple’s Boot Camp and Parallels (http://www.parallels.com), you’re going to have to make a strong argument to keep people from finally making the switch.”

Full article, “Vista Will Double Apple’s Market Share,” here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “mike n.” and “Roberto” for the heads up.]

MacDailyNews Take: We have nothing to add except that the prediction of Apple’s Mac market share doubling is too conservative.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
What if Microsoft held a Windows Vista party and nobody came? – October 13, 2006
CNET: Microsoft’s Windows Vista still not ready for prime time – October 12, 2006
Thurrott: ‘You don’t need Windows Vista’ – October 11, 2006
Microsoft’s Windows Vista spyware may prompt users to upgrade to Apple Mac – October 09, 2006
Windows Vista gaming will be 10-15 percent slower than XP – October 09, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft’s new activation scheme will give users another reason not to upgrade to Vista – October 05, 2006
IT Managers: Do you need Windows Vista or should you ‘Get a Mac?” – September 11, 2006
Infoworld: Microsoft’s WIndows Vista not so revolutionary after all – September 11, 2006
Pirillo: Windows Vista RC1 disappointing, schizophrenic, disordered, inconsistent, and sad – September 07, 2006
Key Microsoft exec exits as clock ticks down on oft-delayed, much pared-down Windows Vista release – September 06, 2006
$399 for Windows Vista Ultimate?! (Hint: Get a Mac) – August 29, 2006
Development approaches of Mac OS X Leopard vs. Windows Vista yield very different results – August 15, 2006
Analyst: Apple’s new Mac OS X Leopard sets new bar, leaves Microsoft’s Vista in the dust – August 08, 2006
Symantec researcher: At this time, there are no file-infecting viruses that can infect Mac OS X – July 13, 2006
Sophos: Apple Mac OS X’s security record unscathed; Windows Vista malware just a matter of time – July 07, 2006
Computerworld: Microsoft Windows Vista a distant second-best to Apple Mac OS X – June 02, 2006

Computerworld: Apple’s Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Time Machine’ is truly remarkable – October 05, 2006
InfoWorld’s Yager: Apple will take computing to the next level with Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard – September 06, 2006
Apple’s Mac OS X Leopard is 64-bit done right, unlike Microsoft’s Windows Vista kludge – August 14, 2006
Mac OS X Leopard sneak peek highlights – August 09, 2006
Analyst: Apple’s new Mac OS X Leopard sets new bar, leaves Microsoft’s Vista in the dust – August 08, 2006
Inside Apple Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Spaces’ – August 07, 2006
Take a ride in Apple Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Time Machine’ – August 07, 2006
Apple previews Mac OS X Leopard featuring Time Machine, Spaces, enhanced Mail & iChat, and more – August 07, 2006
Apple previews Mac OS X Server Leopard; to ship in spring 2007 – August 07, 2006

77 Comments

  1. How do you back up a prediction? Speaking of spouting bullshit.

    Smartass:

    How do you back up a prediction?

    Maybe cite the percentage of growth quarter of quarter, year over year and how those numbers trend toward your outlook? Studies citing the willingness of people to switch? Trends that actually show when these numbers would indicate a doublign or tripling of market share (easy for MDN to make a call ofr more than doubling and then not indicate any time frame for it whatsoever)? Rate of exodus away from windows from current customers? Anything?

    I realize you’re way too stupid to get this, but a prediction without tangible factual basis isn’t a prediction at all, it’s baseless banter that bafoons like you read as fact.

  2. Smartass:

    Furthermore, do yourself a favor and walk into your boss’ office Monday morning and predict a tripling of net revenues. Don’t tell your boss when or how such a thing can be accomplished. When asked, let them know you’re of the opinion that predictions can’t be backed with facts or statistics.

    You’ll be running the place in no time.

  3. ApplePi seems to think that the author would spend a lot more in hardware to switch to Mac OS X than it would to continue using Vista. Here’s where he’s wrong: If he wants to run Vista to its full extent, he’s going to need to invest in a new PC anyway. Therefore, he has the choice to buy a new PC with Vista or buy a new Mac with OS X. Cost is roughly equivalent, but the benefits of Macs/Mac OS X are clear.

  4. The Lone Macster,

    From w3schools site, OS useage statistics.
    http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp
    Sep 2006 3.8%
    Sep 2005 3.1%
    Sep 2004 2.6%
    Sep 2003 2.0%

    This is one of many examples around the web of growing Mac market share. The statistics come from a popular web development site that is either platform neutral or slightly MS leaning. The time of data collection represents a significant period of chip speed disparity followed by the Intel transition. Even in the dark days, Mac useage doubled over three years. Now that Mac enjoys massive mind share, positive press, price and hardware parity (at least), no OS limitations and massively bad press for Microsoft, 12 months would seem to be an aggressive but possible estimate for market share doubling.

    ****************

    Shaneblyth,

    You are personally responsible for a doubling of the market share represented by yourself. If other Mac owners are half as successful, and you add in online and physical store sales, doubling of marketshare will happen quickly. (I am probably confusing market share and installed base, but I think you get the idea.)

  5. Paul
    you said
    Shaneblyth,

    You are personally responsible for a doubling of the market share represented by yourself. If other Mac owners are half as successful, and you add in online and physical store sales, doubling of marketshare will happen quickly. (I am probably confusing market share and installed base, but I think you get the idea.)

    You just made my day. I never thought of it like that..
    I truly am awesome (wink)

    thank you for pointing that out

  6. I’d say doubling it is an excellent prediction (for now). I’d say calling that too conservative is getting way ahead of yourself. Don’t underestimate the power of the anti-Mac zealots. That said, I sure hope your right MDN!!!

  7. The Video is Flawed (Wrong) on Cnet ok.

    The Vista Rc2 took 20 mins to install fresh copy. I am running 2 and half years old pc. Its P4 3.00GHZ, 1Gb of Ram, and 256Mb video card Ati and on Intel Motherboard. Its running faster then Rc1 ok. Its less Memory Hog in Rc2 now. The vista is Stable so far. It has been running for few days without no restarts at all. And the Compatibility Wizard is found in Rc2 5744 Build. Just Right click on Program and Properties its there. Another Method is under Help and Support section and type Compatibility Wizard you will find it there. I dont know why cnet is saying its Missing from Rc2. The Video Glitch i dont experience no glitch they might be using generic video card it seems. And the OS is still in Beta Stages not final code. Few people think that Rc2 means its out of Beta Stages. There just wrong ok.

    Windows 95, 98, Me. I can believe it crashed with blue screens of death for no reason. I have Experienced it. But since XP was launched the Reliablity was Improved and with XP Sp2 its more stable XP. And Vista is more Stable then XP. Since its build on windows 2003 server code. And my system has been crashfree since XP sp2. If you have enough memory like 1Gb ram extra memory helps. Also Theres a thing called maintanaice. If you take care of computer. The system will be be fine. Like check for file system errors and bad sectors every month for errors on hard drive. And keep the Firewall on. The Blaster was gotton into pc throught a Port. If people kept the firewall on. They would not gotton a Blaster Virus. Finally i would not say any OS is Perfect even Mac or Linux. Because Humans are not Perfect in the first place either. And you expect the OS to be Perfect LOL.

    Also Mac OS is good to. I wont say Mac Os is anyway better then windows. Because i have used Macs in schools and crashed the macs in 10 mins. The person who says virus-free macs. Are you kidding me. I can see that macs have less viruses but you cant say they have Zero Viruses. Then why Companies makes anti-virus Software for Macs. They should not make no anti-virus programs for macs. If they was Virus Free. Also i only had 1 virus since 1999 in Pc. I never got a virus more then 1 ok.

    Now why i dont like Macs: I just dont like the desktop interface of Macs. And you cant upgrade parts in imac. Now u can in MacPro which is $2500 to buy to expensive. And if you think macs OS cost $129. In the Long run that Os has costed you over $129. Like for example you already spend $2500 that included the Os Price i guess. As Pcs you can have crashProof Pc under $1500. If you know how run a Pc Properly. Also not a lot of software available for Macs. Maybe in the Future there might be ok.

    Also why apple is full of Lies. There creating false ads. Like this mac actor says i can make movies and the pc person said i can do Word, Piechart. Thats just wrong. You can do anything on Pc like music editing, Listen to music edit videos you name it and design web sites using Micromedia 7 or 8 or any 3rd party software. So finally its a user preference whether they like Macs or PC. Both are good in there own unique ways. Bye take care

  8. “Why doesn’t anyone know the difference between schizophrenia and multiple personality disorder a.k.a. dissociative identity disorder”, asks Brian and then proceeds to conduct a review of both mental disorders.

    You rendered your own question moot when you proceeded to give us a lecture in psych 101.

  9. Jatt,

    There is anti-software being developed for macs because their are customers who purchase them as a preemptive meausure, just in case there ever is a virus. There are also some who falsely beleive that there are viruses for macs and purchase these products.

  10. to answer your question Jatt

    Then why Companies makes anti-virus Software for Macs. They should not make no anti-virus programs for macs. If they was Virus Free. Also i only had 1 virus since 1999 in Pc. I never got a virus more then 1 ok.

    antivirus on the Mac is for protecting PC’s on the network from Windows only viruses.
    We dont want to onsend a virus to a Windows system and thats it
    Glad you have had no viruses thats because you have all the right protection in place
    Unfortunately the average user doesn’t or gets sucked into buy antivirus software like Nortons that suck big time. You can successfully protect a Windows PC from attacks for free.
    But not totally. you have to be a wise user and avoid certain things.. forinstance Internet explorer that even the US defence dept. has warned its staff to not use.

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.