Pirillo: Microsoft’s Windows Vista will double Apple’s market share

“The industry hasn’t seen a new desktop OS come from Redmond since Windows XP,” Chris Pirillo writes for Computer Power User. “We’ve all been waiting with bated breath for Vista to revolutionize the way we . . . what the hell is this?! RC1 feels and looks more like an early beta than it does a final product, and they want me to fork over how much for it?”

“Off the shelf, Windows Vista Ultimate will cost the user $399 per copy, with subsequent licenses weighing in at $359 each. Upgrade prices for Ultimate are slightly less exorbitant ($259 for the initial upgrade and $233 for additional copies). If you’re planning on upgrading your home network of five machines, you’re going to spend $1,191 for five Ultimate upgrades. Conservatively, if you’re upgrading the same network to Home Basic, you’re going to spend $460,” Pirillo writes.

“I’m a nanometer away from switching my family over to OS X when Apple releases Leopard in Q1 of 2007. It looks clean and elegant. It comes with all the software and services the average user could ever want. It runs on the same hardware. A system will be able to dual-boot between OS X and Windows, and pricing is no longer astronomical. But most importantly? With its UI inconsistencies, Vista feels completely schizophrenic, and that’s enough of a reason for anybody to leave Windows in the dust,” Pirillo writes.

“Yesterday’s arguments don’t really hold water in today’s marketplace, and as a serious technologist, you need to recognize that. Forget the whole ‘Windows has more software’ debate because that’s absolute bunk. More and more, we’re moving our lives online, spending our day in an email client and/or a Web browser,” Pirillo writes.

MacDailyNews Note: “Windows has more software” is not just “absolute bunk” because we’re spending so much time in a Web browser. “Windows has more software” is “absolute bunk” because the statement is patently false. Only Apple Mac can run Mac OS X and Windows and Linux. No other PC can do such a thing. Apple Macs can run more software than any other personal computer in the world. Period.

Pirillo continues, “Remember how you felt when you saw ‘The Phantom Menace’ for the first time? I was overwhelmingly disappointed. That’s exactly how Windows Vista RC1 makes me feel, and that’s not very likely to change between now and when the OS goes gold… Between Apple’s Boot Camp and Parallels (http://www.parallels.com), you’re going to have to make a strong argument to keep people from finally making the switch.”

Full article, “Vista Will Double Apple’s Market Share,” here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “mike n.” and “Roberto” for the heads up.]

MacDailyNews Take: We have nothing to add except that the prediction of Apple’s Mac market share doubling is too conservative.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
What if Microsoft held a Windows Vista party and nobody came? – October 13, 2006
CNET: Microsoft’s Windows Vista still not ready for prime time – October 12, 2006
Thurrott: ‘You don’t need Windows Vista’ – October 11, 2006
Microsoft’s Windows Vista spyware may prompt users to upgrade to Apple Mac – October 09, 2006
Windows Vista gaming will be 10-15 percent slower than XP – October 09, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft’s new activation scheme will give users another reason not to upgrade to Vista – October 05, 2006
IT Managers: Do you need Windows Vista or should you ‘Get a Mac?” – September 11, 2006
Infoworld: Microsoft’s WIndows Vista not so revolutionary after all – September 11, 2006
Pirillo: Windows Vista RC1 disappointing, schizophrenic, disordered, inconsistent, and sad – September 07, 2006
Key Microsoft exec exits as clock ticks down on oft-delayed, much pared-down Windows Vista release – September 06, 2006
$399 for Windows Vista Ultimate?! (Hint: Get a Mac) – August 29, 2006
Development approaches of Mac OS X Leopard vs. Windows Vista yield very different results – August 15, 2006
Analyst: Apple’s new Mac OS X Leopard sets new bar, leaves Microsoft’s Vista in the dust – August 08, 2006
Symantec researcher: At this time, there are no file-infecting viruses that can infect Mac OS X – July 13, 2006
Sophos: Apple Mac OS X’s security record unscathed; Windows Vista malware just a matter of time – July 07, 2006
Computerworld: Microsoft Windows Vista a distant second-best to Apple Mac OS X – June 02, 2006

Computerworld: Apple’s Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Time Machine’ is truly remarkable – October 05, 2006
InfoWorld’s Yager: Apple will take computing to the next level with Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard – September 06, 2006
Apple’s Mac OS X Leopard is 64-bit done right, unlike Microsoft’s Windows Vista kludge – August 14, 2006
Mac OS X Leopard sneak peek highlights – August 09, 2006
Analyst: Apple’s new Mac OS X Leopard sets new bar, leaves Microsoft’s Vista in the dust – August 08, 2006
Inside Apple Mac OS X Leopard’s ‘Spaces’ – August 07, 2006
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Apple previews Mac OS X Leopard featuring Time Machine, Spaces, enhanced Mail & iChat, and more – August 07, 2006
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77 Comments

  1. Brian, are you some 1st year psych student, trying to show how much you know about what the majority of pople don’t care about? Give it a rest, we knew what he meant. Go back to you study group to find someone who cares.

    [was that too rough?]

  2. I’m thinking that some of these XP folks need to be deprogrammed long before being allowed to use any kind
    OS X, let alone “Leopard”.

    If these guys were smart they would switch now, learn “Tiger” or even “Panther” and be ahead of the game by the time “Leopard” is on the street and proven.

    By then most of there bad habits should have been cleaned up.

  3. OS X has only a fraction of the games available for Windows. If I wanted to run Half Life 2 (for example) on my Mac Pro, I still need to install Vista or XP.

    Now, I’m not saying that the whole argument of “windows has more software” isn’t bunk, but I can say, with confidence, that its quite true for gaming.

    That said, I have a Mac Book Pro and a Mac Pro.

  4. How do you back up a prediction? Speaking of spouting bullshit.

    Smartass:

    How do you back up a prediction?

    Maybe cite the percentage of growth quarter of quarter, year over year and how those numbers trend toward your outlook? Studies citing the willingness of people to switch? Trends that actually show when these numbers would indicate a doublign or tripling of market share (easy for MDN to make a call ofr more than doubling and then not indicate any time frame for it whatsoever)? Rate of exodus away from windows from current customers? Anything?

    I realize you’re way too stupid to get this, but a prediction without tangible factual basis isn’t a prediction at all, it’s baseless banter that bafoons like you read as fact.

  5. Smartass:

    Furthermore, do yourself a favor and walk into your boss’ office Monday morning and predict a tripling of net revenues. Don’t tell your boss when or how such a thing can be accomplished. When asked, let them know you’re of the opinion that predictions can’t be backed with facts or statistics.

    You’ll be running the place in no time.

  6. ApplePi seems to think that the author would spend a lot more in hardware to switch to Mac OS X than it would to continue using Vista. Here’s where he’s wrong: If he wants to run Vista to its full extent, he’s going to need to invest in a new PC anyway. Therefore, he has the choice to buy a new PC with Vista or buy a new Mac with OS X. Cost is roughly equivalent, but the benefits of Macs/Mac OS X are clear.

  7. The Lone Macster,

    From w3schools site, OS useage statistics.
    http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp
    Sep 2006 3.8%
    Sep 2005 3.1%
    Sep 2004 2.6%
    Sep 2003 2.0%

    This is one of many examples around the web of growing Mac market share. The statistics come from a popular web development site that is either platform neutral or slightly MS leaning. The time of data collection represents a significant period of chip speed disparity followed by the Intel transition. Even in the dark days, Mac useage doubled over three years. Now that Mac enjoys massive mind share, positive press, price and hardware parity (at least), no OS limitations and massively bad press for Microsoft, 12 months would seem to be an aggressive but possible estimate for market share doubling.

    ****************

    Shaneblyth,

    You are personally responsible for a doubling of the market share represented by yourself. If other Mac owners are half as successful, and you add in online and physical store sales, doubling of marketshare will happen quickly. (I am probably confusing market share and installed base, but I think you get the idea.)

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