The New York Times’ David Pogue presents, “for your nostalgia pleasure,” some articles from major publications featuring analysts and columnists predictions from ten years ago:
• Fortune, 2/19/1996: “By the time you read this story, the quirky cult company…will end its wild ride as an independent enterprise.”
• BusinessWeek, 10/16/95: “Having underforecast demand, the company has a $1 billion-plus order backlog….The only alternative: to merge with a company with the marketing and financial clout to help Apple survive the switch to a software-based company. The most likely candidate, many think, is IBM Corp.”
• A Forrester Research analyst, 1/25/96 (quoted in, of all places, The New York Times): “Whether they stand alone or are acquired, Apple as we know it is cooked. It’s so classic. It’s so sad.”
• Nathan Myhrvold (Microsoft’s chief technology officer, 6/97: “The NeXT purchase is too little too late. Apple is already dead.”
• Wired, “101 Ways to Save Apple,” 6/97: “1. Admit it. You’re out of the hardware game.”
• The Economist, 2/23/95: “Apple could hang on for years, gamely trying to slow the decline, but few expect it to make such a mistake. Instead it seems to have two options. The first is to break itself up, selling the hardware side. The second is to sell the company outright.”
• The Financial Times, 7/11/97: “Apple no longer plays a leading role in the $200 billion personal computer industry. ‘The idea that they’re going to go back to the past to hit a big home run…is delusional,’ says Dave Winer, a software developer.”
Pogue writes, “This is why, when anyone asks me what the future of technology holds, or what kids will be bringing to school in 2016, I politely decline to answer.”
More in his full blog post here.
Related articles:
Apple’s Mac market share rises over 24-percent year-over-year – September 21, 2006
Apple Mac’s 2007 market share climb will dumbfound almost everyone, create mayhem in PC market – September 08, 2006
Apple gaining traction as Mac market share increases – July 31, 2006
Apple market share myths deconstructed – July 22, 2006
IDC: Apple Mac attained 4.8% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
Gartner: Apple Mac grabbed 4.6% U.S. market share in Q2 06 – July 19, 2006
‘Fantastic quarter’ helps Apple double share of U.S. retail notebook market to 12% – July 19, 2006
BusinessWeek: big market-share gains coming for Apple’s Macintosh – June 15, 2006
Analyst: Apple Mac market share primed to explode; iPod Halo Effect to become increasingly important – June 13, 2006
Analysts: Apple Mac market share to surge by end of 2006 – June 07, 2006
Analysts expect Apple’s new MacBook to drive market share gains in near future – May 17, 2006
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ ultimate goal: ‘to take back the computer business from Microsoft’ – June 16, 2005
Just goes to show what the pro’s know.
nuttin’
I’ve never heard of so many people I know even Considering
getting an Apple, that’s a start. The future is bright for Apple. The sales will continue coming.
I’m glad to say I am buying a Mac on Saturday and then giving my Windows laptop a bath. Anyway, I believe the myth about Apple is almost gone because when I told this to my friends they all went “cool”, whereas if it were a year or two ago they probably would have said, “But they aren’t compatible and can’t do much, right? Why would you get one of those overpriced POSes?”
MDN Word: Labor
As in, Apple’s labor is finally paying off.
“. . . when anyone asks me what the future of technology holds . . .”
Which is also why the short-sighted argument for using Windows in schools to train kids for the future is also a cargo ship full of b.s.
“The dream of what software can do is just beginning. We see it day by day as we’re revolutionizing business and entertainment. So many of the seeds we’ve planted, whether it’s gaming or TV or development or communications, have just started to grow. The biggest impact is yet to come.”
– Bill Gates, June 15th, 2006
He just conveniently left out that it’s not Windows.
ROFLOL. This is classic.
Unfortunately, I STILL have other businessmen call my Macs “toys” and the like. I’ve just about quit getting into discussions (arguments) about Mac v. peecee. I run two companies, one of them a $300 million trust company, exclusively on Macs and one really old WANG system. Both are workhorses and allow us to operate with about 50% of the personnel at a competitor of the same size. Some people will NEVER learn.
Once again Ampar…you are so correct. I really enjoy your posts.
I also think David Pogue is an outstanding writer…funny, accurate, and in touch with what the real world thinks.
If Apple can really grasp and hold a significant market share, say an undeniable 30-40% in the next five plus years, then the world will most definitely be a better place.
Maybe it will inspire others we’ve never heard of to bring new personal computing technologies (hardware and OS) to the marketing table. I for one sure hope so. We need choices, we need alternatives, we need innovation, WE NEED COMPETITION in the personal computing industries.
I really hope that what MS has done to us never happens again.
Take that, Dave WIner
Someone needs to do a retrospective and compile quotes from that unholy trinity, i.e. Rob Enderle, Andrew Orlowski, and Paul Thurott.
Now that would provide real entertainment!
Here’s a FUNNY article to read:
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/AViuO5r1twGnhR/Windows-Vista-The-Final-Countdown-Begins.xhtml#talkback
Enderle wrote it on 09/19/05 … a year and 2 days ago and titled it: “Windows Vista: The Final Countdown Begins.” A year long countdown? And still HOLDING? It makes his prognostications and attitude coping quite hilarious to behold. And particularly his closing line:
“This suggests that 2006, at least after August, will be great time for buyers and sellers of PC hardware and that has to be a good thing for everyone — except Apple.”
FOFLMHO … makes one wonder if Enderle would like to go back in time and do a massive re-write.
” I STILL have other businessmen call my Macs “toys” and the like.”
Most people who say that usually follow it up by saying something stupid like “there aren’t any games for Macs”.
Toy? Yeah, having been a Mac user for 18 years now I can point out so many things that were created on Macs. People just don’t realize the scope.
Dave Winer, what an appropriate name…
Thanks, pr.
And thanks to MS’ Soapbox for proving that disco is not dead. I’m still having nightmares from that video. Chased by huge zombie butterflies and being forced to boogie down or get pollinated.
MW: window. I don’t do windows.
Mac Business Guy —
Out-compete your competitors, and leave them in the dust. If they’re not smart enough to realize that their choice of platforms has that much of an effect on their overall productivity, they deserve to fail.
Windows is not going to die because everyone sees the light and switches to something better; it’s going to die because people who are not using Windows succeed more than people who are using Windows, and the people who don’t see this find themselves less and less relevant.
And they said Ampar was funny.
How about naming the journalists/analysts who made these predictions for whichever enterprise
they were employed by.
And do a ‘where are they now’ piece
Anyone see a great story here or have I had too much tea this morning?
If it weren’t for the masses, we individualists would wouldn’t be…
For me, the icing on the cake would be to see the Motley Fools come over to the Apple side.
It seems to me that they hardly ever have anything positive to say about Apple. If they do, it is qualified with a cautionary note. In essence, they sell themselves as investment thinkers that don’t follow the herd; however, when they have an opportunity like this staring them in the face…they refuse to “think different.”
The David Pogue article brings the fallacy of the “Herd Mentality” to light!
They underestimate the “Jobs” side of the Force. Powerful it is, yes!
Thomas Watson, the CEO of IBM many years ago, made the famous statement that he didn’t ever foresee the need for more than 5-6 computers in the entire US.
Xerox, a very small copmany at the time, went ahead with the development of the office copier in 1956 in the face of whithering internal criticism as a total boondoogle and a waste of company money.
The Director of the US Patent Office in about 1895 or so recommended to Congress that the Office be abolished because in his opinion everything important had already been invented.
Be very careful when you attempt to predict the future.
this is from the wired mag article 101 ways to save apple:
14. Do something creative with the design of the box and separate yourselves from the pack. The original Macs stood out because of their innovative look. Repeat that. Get the folks at Porsche to design a box. Or Giorgio Giugiaro. Or Philippe Starck. We’d all feel better about shelling out the bucks for a Power Mac 9600 if we could get a tower with leopard spots.
too funny!
It’s hight time for those “journalists” to put their foot in their mouth and be accounted for what they said!!!!
I love this kind of stuff. In all fairness though, there was every reason to believe that all of these predictions would come true back then. It just makes you realize what an unbelievable thing Steve Jobs did when he came back. Truly astonishing.
Oh, and I hate to nitpick, but Pogue said, “This summer marked the tenth anniversary of Apple’s lowest point–a time in 1996 when the company’s profits and products were hitting bottom. (Steve Jobs’s return to the company he founded was still a year away.)” Actually he came back to Apple in December of 1996 in the role of advisor (that’s putting it lightly!) but took over as iCEO in July, 1997. I’m sure that’s what Pogue meant, but not they way he wrote it discounts Steve’s role in the company over those seven months and obviously he had a great deal of influence during that time.
oops! Not enough coffee this morning! That last line should have read:
“I’m sure that’s what Pogue meant, but the way he wrote it discounts Steve’s role in the company over those seven months and obviously he had a great deal of influence during that time.”
bjf, that’s awesome! Thanks for posting it.
Back in the late Eighties/early Nineties, my so-called back-stabbing mentor told me to stop promoting the Macintosh as it was (and I quote) “dead technology”.
If I knew where the c*&t lived, I’d love to give him a call and ask how Apple is the second most valuable PC manufacturer by market capitalization whilst Dell, Gateway and others are getting their asses handed to them on a plate?
A popular German stand up comedian has this trademark line:
“If you don’t have a clue – try to shut up for a change!”
Some analysts should pin that quote over their desks!