“Coming from a base of zero against a 80% market share holder such as iPod was always going to be a monumental task. Microsoft’s strategy of pitting like against like will make it an impossible one,” Stan Beer writes for iTWire.
“The so-called iPod killer, code-named Zune, looks to be simply a me too effort from an IT company that is flailing in all directions trying to find ways to spend its huge pile of excess cash to buy itself into new markets,” Beer writes.
“Noting that Apple’s formula for success appears to be working very well these days, Microsoft is spending resources on developing its own hardware division. Instead of just mouses and keyboards, Microsoft now produces games consoles, web cams and soon Wi-Fi music players,” Beer writes.
Beer writes, “As far as the music players are concerned, Microsoft will probably succeed in gaining a few points of market share. Maybe even a double digit share. However, it is more likely to grab that share off the non-iPod users than Apple.”
Beer writes, “iPod has a dominant market share and the only thing that can break that is a technology that introduces a paradigm shift. Unless there’s something very special that Microsoft has up its sleeve, Zune does not appear to be that paradigm shift.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Peter” for the heads up.]
Related articles:
Microsoft confirms ‘iPod Killer’ plans – July 21, 2006
Microsoft’s rumored ‘iPod killer’ poses little threat to Apple’s domination – July 18, 2006
Microsoft plans Super Bowl ad for ‘iPod killer’ – July 17, 2006
Sounds serious: Microsoft approaches iPod accessory makers for Zune would-be ‘iPod killer’ – July 12, 2006
Microsoft preps complete line of Xbox-branded digital-media products – July 11, 2006
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10 reasons why Microsoft’s ‘iPod killer’ will fail – July 11, 2006
Enderle on what it would take for Microsoft to kill Apple’s iPod – July 10, 2006
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Can Microsoft hit a fast moving target? Apple likely to debut wireless iPod this year – July 07, 2006
Analysts: Microsoft faces uphill fight to supplant Apple’s iPod+iTunes market dominance – July 07, 2006
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Microsoft has NEVER been a company capable of producing a paradigm shifting product. Everything they have produced is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Someone else has had to shown them the way first.
Being true innovators isn’t in their DNA, especially not with a sales guy running the show.
Apple is running a one horse race to see if they can outperform themselves.
I think this whole ‘iPod Killer’ tag really needs to die, this is NOT going to kill the iPod.
However, I do have to give it up to Microsoft for making a wi-fi player with the ability to exchange files wirelessly…I can’t see Apple doing this, as they don’t even let you transfer music from your iPod onto your computer, but it would be nice if they took that hint. Hopefully Apple will continue to make even better players because of this, and hopefully this new Video iPod will be a bigger step in innovation than Zune.
Well Apple better get their head outta their ass and quit making the iPod a computer geeks only device.
Right now I’m supporting over a half a dozen computer less iPod music loving girls/women and quite frankly I’m getting worn out.
Women are so emotional and music affects them more than men, they are addicted to it. But unfortunatly one needs to be a computer genius to use even a Mac now a days with all the backups, cd burning, printing out of playlists etc etc. No to mention having to download crap like Garth Brooks and Hillary Duff.
SO PLEASE COME OUT WITH A COMPUTERLESS IPOD PLEASE!!!
This guy has the perfect name for a political prisoner. If he were to be held illegally, we could have banners plastered all over the place: “FREE BEER!”
“Microsoft’s dominance on the desktop will not be seriously threatened until a technology is introduced that makes the desktop obsolete. Similarly, the iPod and iTunes dominance is not likely be threatened unless a technology happens along that makes its model of buying and listening to music obsolete.”
a perhaps very good analagy… only time will tell.
The problem I have with a lot of the anti-Zune comments is that they are merely an excuse to rag on Microsoft a little more.
If Zune really is a family of devices that alter the way people think about how to use media devices. If they are very simple to use. If they have adequate battery life and size. If Microsoft has developed software to go along with the Zune platform that is as easy to use as the devices (which would mean a complete replacement for Windows Media Player). If the whole shebang has a price setup that is comparable with iPod/iTunes.
Oh… Never mind…
Rag on!
You’re a pile of steaming crap, Pot Luck.
You’re crude, bigoted, sexist, and probably extremely bad in the sack. It’s clear you’re worn out for reasons other than your powers to attract “girls/women” physically or intellectually.
You’d better thank whatever deity you hold dear that the iPod exist for you to support. Without it, you’d be just another fat bastard living in your mother’s basement yanking your own chain.
You’re pathetic.
Considering the debacle of Vista, the failure of Origami, and the embarrassment of Office 2007, Zune is Microsoft’s next chance at redemption. Ballmer has already stated that there is nothing complicated or arcane about the iPod, so Microsoft’s success with the Zune is unsurprisingly predictable. After five years of Microsoft’s rigorous study of the iPod-iTunes model what would you expect?
http://homepage.mac.com/mstein/iblog/C776908961/E20060428072205/index.html
Our good buddy Rob Enderle has weighed in on this one just like a water Buffalo in a glass shop and reckons this amazing Microsoft piece of shit will blow Apple away and make them a ‘bit player’ with a ‘Brilliant Strategy’. Pretty brave prediction considering the latest efforts from the Wankers in Redmond.
I wonder fi he gets his drugs at discount prices. The fool lives in another ‘Zune’ to the rest of us.
The world is full of dickheads and this guy actually makes money out of it. Power of the press. Never believe everything you read, experience it! That’s why we know, you can’t beat the Mac experience.
“paradigm shift”???
didn’t i hear that on a taco bell commercial, or something?
“Microsoft now produces […] web cams…”
Microsoft produces Webcams?! Yes, they do! The Microsoft <A >Lifecam VX-6000 an VX-3000</A>!
Released in 2006–almost three years after Apple.
This is part of the telling tale:
“iPod has a dominant market share and the only thing that can break that is a technology that introduces a paradigm shift. Unless there’s something very special that Microsoft has up its sleeve, Zune does not appear to be that paradigm shift.”
In other words, Microsoft has three choices:
1 – leave the music market to their “Blasé for Sure” partners and Apple (which is the same thing as licking dust). The result is a long term black eye for Microsoft, The Company That Can’t Compete™.
2 – change the market with some kind of super-duper paradigm shifting product with a Wow Factor greater than the original iPod/iTunes/iTMS trio (hint– that won’t happen)
3 – hand-to-hand combat with Apple by introducing a better product– better means easier to use, more storage, more features, and much lower cost, than the iPod.
#1 is exactly what makes Microsoft look bad. They’re throwing so much mud against the wall hoping something (new products, new revenue streams) will stick that they’re in danger of being known as the mud slinging company– Micromuddy.
#2 would be cool if they could pull it off. Innovate better than Apple. Of course, for a company that has never ever had an innovative product, that’s quite a stretch to expect them to compete against a superb product trio such as iPod/iTunes/iTMS. And Apple’s “not sitting around doing nothing.”
#3 is the toughest of all rows to hoe for Bill and his troops. How do you do it? Others have tried here and there and their only success has been to join the iPod Killer Hall of Shame.
What’ll win the day? A $99 cell phone iPod killer that works as well as the iPod Nano. And a $199 cell phone iPod killer with a hard drive that works as well as the iPod with video. Add great design, dependable hardware, simple software that “just works”, long battery life, a kick-ass video screen, and you’ve got a competitive product, but certainly not an iPod Killer.
The future killer-product is probably wireless bandwidth, especially for cell phones with camera and big color screens. Camera, video, live streaming video and TV, and music. Long term, that’s a great commercial space for Apple to be in. Apple can sell 40-million iPods a year, but how many cell phones could they sell that are “Apple Cool?”
Hundreds of millions of cell phones are sold each year so Apple can smell another market…
Tera Patricks
Mac360
MacDude/Pot Luck,
We’ve all heard your rant before, take it somewhere else.
Will Microsoft be this dominant on the OS front if they had built hardware and competed against the like of Dell, HP, etc.? Now every body is calling Zune an iPod killer! More like Zen, Dell, and all Microsoft supporter killer to me.
This is un-Zune related. BUT! I am happy to report that my friend who was frustrated with iTunes and did get the logic of how Macs organize their programs is considering getting either a MacBook or MacBook Pro because it can run both Windows and Mac OS.
She will only boot in windows for work related programs that only runs in Windows and will under no circumstances do any Web related activities or any private stuff on there. She will us the mac os for that. I mean who wouldn’t with the iLife suite to do fun stuff on her computer and also no viruses to worry about and much better security.
Woohoo! She’s converted!
Apple only has 80% in the USA, not the entire world. Apple have ignored their overseas markets pretty much. In Spain for example you can only speak to customer support in English! Doh¡ Other countries are the same. M$ at least has a multilingual global presence and can easily get 50% or more market in many countries around the world, countries were Apple only has 30% share..
Also, Apple dropped the ball big time with its HiFi – we are still waiting for a proper networkable system that does not require a PC.
The iPod that does not require a computer IS the next “paradigm shift.” There are plenty of music lovers out there who do not like using computers. However, it does not require something as complex as Microsoft’s rumored WI-FI “iPod killer” to do it. Think about it… Microsoft is proposing a small hand-held device that fills the roles currently played by a WI-FI-enabled computer (running iTunes) and the iPod. How can they possibly do that without it being as big and expensive as one of those Orgami things?
Apple could do it with an iPod “base station” (Base); it would essentially be a stripped down Mac mini (it could even be PPC-powered to reduce cost). You connect the next gen iPod to it. You use the screen of the iPod, its scroll wheel, and next gen interface features to navigate a simplified version of the iTunes Music Store. The iPod Base (not the iPod) runs the software that connects to the Internet via dial-up modem, if broadband is not available, and runs the iTMS software. The iPod simply serves as the screen and input device, which greatly reduces its complexity and hardware requirements. Once disconnected, it just needs to be an excellent media player (something it is already).
The iPod Base, being like a stripped-down Mac mini, would also serve as the storage (music library backup), CD ripper, and CD burner. It would be “the computer” without the complexity. Once again, Apple would be serving the needs of its customers by offering the iPod Base as an accessory for those who need it. Computer-savvy customers would not be burdened by the cost or extra buck needed for WI-FI capability (and the capability of acting as “the computer” AND the media player).
I hope Apple does something like this…
Coming Zune
Can’t hardly wait.
Ken you are onto something there… IF and only IF this thing is cheap and super easy to use, it should not have many whistles and bells, but do a few things simply.
The difficulty is what to put in, and more importantly – what to leave out!
Microsoft has the knack of adding too many features hoping that one or two of them work and are needed, Apple is usually good at sifting out the essentials.
I love competition – I think this is great that Zune is coming out. Get Apple off its “hey we got a monopoly thinking why bring out anything new” mentality.
John,
thats bullshit, the ipod is a phenomenon the world over.
from travelling the world last year i can tell you everywhere you go from australia, new zealand, the whole of england, ireland, scotland, spain, italy, germany, france. the only player you saw were ipods.
30% world side market share is incorrect.
the biggest competition right now for ipods is not another mp3 player, its mobile phones.
its only a matter of time before apple integrates a phone and their ipod technology, they actually have to do it.
otherwise over time they will begin to lose market share.
im looking forward to when they do release a new ipod, a phone(ipod) done by apple should be revolutionary in its ease of use and aesthetics.
I have been living in Portugal and Finland and Sweden and I am from Norway and at present I am in Brazil – and I am afraid that John has got a point; iPods are of course popular outside USA, but not as popular as it is there. What I have seen, going to the Nordic countries in January, travelling through Spain, France, Belgium and Germany, is that there are a lot of iPod-players around, yes, they are seen more frequently than the iPods, at least on trains. But I have noticed the same on planes.
One has to remember one thing; iTunes is not the same outside USA; where are all the TV-shows etc? Non-existent, I am afraid. And, yes, calling up Apple for service might be a frustrating experience for someone who doesn’t speak English that well if at all. From Norway, one might get one who speaks Swedish which isn’t that bad, but the next person one might be put over to, might be a nice Irish lady – who speaks no Norwegian, though.
What more? In Portugal there are no fully fledged Apple Online Store and one cannot buy QT Pro, for instance. Prices of all Apple products are set much higher outside USA, also in Europe – and in Brazil they are so outrageously high that Macs are only for the super-rich!
Of course, Apple is an American company and has to build itself up at home first, but I certainly hope that they will look at how they might improve their international presence soon. I am convinced that they could grab a substantial part of the global market share if prices were equal to what you have in the USA and service could be local and every country would at least get a functioning online store and iTunes would get TV-shows etc. The buzz about Apple is high around the world, but people are stopped when they are faced with the prices. Remember; the average income outside the US are mostly lower – but PCs are just as cheap here as it is there, but not Macs and iPods, alas.
Looking for a computer-less iPod controller?
The simplest it could ever get is to plop a disk in a player and press play. Anything after that where you want to select certain songs or load them on to the iPod is going to require some interaction with the user and the controller. Trying to put that into a small screen only makes it harder to deal with. Try controlling a DVD by only using the alpha-numeric screen on the player (no TV screen menu) and you get an idea. If you want real simple and no computer interface, get a CD or Cassette Walkman. An iPod may not be for your grandmother but it is far from too complicated for 90% of the population. For the remaining non technical users, grandchildren will provide support. There is no market here.
Sorry; the sentence: “…that there are a lot of iPod-players around, yes, they are seen more frequently than the iPods,” should of course be: “…that there are a lot of NON-iPod-players around, yes, they are seen more frequently than the iPods”…