“Put Windows on a Mac, toss in many with Intel chips, mix with the public’s passion for the iPod—and you’ve got big market-share gains for Apple,” Arik Hesseldahl writes for BusinessWeek.
“In case you hadn’t heard, Apple’s Macs can now run Microsoft’s Windows. Also, by the end of the year—with luck, by the end of the summer—all Macs will be built with microprocessors from Intel (INTC). That, combined with the runaway success of the iPod music player, augurs a considerably brighter picture for Mac sales and worldwide market share starting about 2008,” Hesseldahl writes. “Charles Wolf of Needham and Co. says Apple could end up with a global PC market share north of 5% by 2011, compared with a 1.9% sliver in 2005. How does he reach that conclusion? He asked Windows users… Assuming that the Mac cannot run Windows applications, 4.3% indicated an interest in switching from a Windows PC to the Mac. That translates to about 90 people out of the 2,092 in the sample. When asked if they would switch to the Mac if it could run Windows, the percentage saying yes doubled to about 8%. Some of the people in the survey group owned an iPod. And here the results are stunning. In this category, 7.6% say they’d switch even if the Mac can’t run Windows. With Windows, that percentage swells to above 20%. One starts to see some statistical evidence that iPod is giving Mac the “halo effect” you’ve no doubt heard about.”
“Wolf stresses that he ‘bent over backwards’ to interpret the survey results conservatively. Even then, they suggest 772,000 Macs, about 17% of the 4.3 million units expected to be sold this year, will be purchased by people switching away from Windows, Wolf says. He bases that projection on forecasts for future PC sales growth from market research firm Interactive Data (IDC),” Hesseldahl writes. “But in the following two years the phenomenon gathers steam. His figures for 2007—the year the Intel transition is complete and Windows-ready Leopard launches—show 1.7 million Windows users switching to the Mac out of 6.7 million Macs sold, implying a 25% rate. The year after that shows nearly 3 million switchers, or about 29% of a total 10.2 million Macs sold… That’s more progress than Mac users have seen in many years.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: As we have always said, even as many short-sightedly threw in the towel, the war is not over. And, yes, we shall prevail. For the naysayers we trot out our favorite example once again: In 1929, Ford held just over 61% of the U.S. market for automobiles. GM’s market share stood at just 12%. Ford was thought to be invincible, with GM regarded as a niche auto maker. But, in 1936, just seven years later, Ford held 22% of the market for new automobiles while General Motors held a 43% share. No company is invincible. Not even Microsoft.
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