Analyst: Apple Mac market share primed to explode; iPod Halo Effect to become increasingly important

“Apple’s move to Intel processors and its development of Boot Camp could triple its market share in the home markets, according to Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf,” Jonny Evans reports for Macworld UK. “He describes the dual boot and Intel move as maybe: ‘Conjuring the magic that could double its market share.’ Wolf notes his recent online survey of college students, which revealed a dramatic increase in the number of Macs Apple may potentially sell, but warns that these results may be biased because the ‘higher education market is one of the Mac’s strongholds.’ In response to these concerns, the analyst has committed further research across a sample of Windows users in the US home market.”

“Wolf reports: ‘The second survey indicates that the new ambidextrous Mac could possibly triple its share in the home market and almost double its share worldwide.’ He also anticipates a boost in sales as a result of the ‘iPod halo’. His second survey revealed that the likelihood of Windows users switching to Mac rose 8 per cent on the basis that Macs can run Windows… ‘From Apple’s perspective, the good news is that Windows users who owned iPod represented only 13 per cent of all Windows users in our survey. As this percentage increases, the iPod could play an increasingly important role in Apple’s strategy to grow its market share,'” Evans reports. “The Mac held a combined 4.2 per cent share in the US and European home markets in 2005… As a result of his analysis, Wolf states that given the market share increase described: ‘The Mac’s market share (in 2005) would have hypothetically increased to 12.2 per cent in these markets as a result of the 8 per cent share gain… The gain in the Mac’s worldwide market share would have been more subdued (from 2.3 per cent to 4.0 per cent in 2005) because the US and European home markets represent only 20 per cent of worldwide PC shipments'”

Evans reports, “‘The migration to the Mac resulting from its ability to run Windows is unlikely to kick in fully before 2008,’ [Wolf] warned investors. ‘In the meantime, Apple’s transition to Intel processors could cause customers to postpone purchases until this transition is completed in early 2007.'”

More in the full article here.

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  1. These folk are guessing – like I’m the first here to note that.

    => some people are waiting for their Boot Camp Security Blanket
    -=> many Mac users yawn (or GAG) at the thought of MacWindows
    => some switchers will have started with an iPod or with iTunes
    -=> most PC iPod or iTunes users will not switch
    => some people have been holding back, waiting for the Intel Switch
    -=> some folk have been waiting for the Last PPC of a type to hold on to their Classic apps longer

    Mac sales grew less than the market grew last quarter. Partly pent-up demand on the PC side when they realized how long they would have to wait for Vista, part loss-leader pricing at Dell and HP – the market grew faster than Mac sales. But … Mac sales grew, even with their product line in significant flux, and flux generally inhibits sales. That flux is gone, for the better-selling lines, and the demand for PCs has stabilized … Mac will gain market share this quarter.

    Anyone out the do Folding@Home? A million and a half processors are involved in this process. It’s all voluntary, donated system time. About 4.5% of them are running OS X and 10.6% Linux. <u>Active</u> users are fewer, and 4.8% of them use OS X. Just one statistic suggesting that Mac is closing on 5% of the user base and Windows enjoys less than 87% of that base.

  2. I know I’m waiting for Mac Pro, or whatever they’re going to call it. I have a lovely 22 inch display so an iMac is not an option, and while a macmini would be a great option, I want something with a little more kick.

  3. Tommy Boy, I’m with you on this. I wouldn’t want a monitor with a built-in iSight unless it had a separate cable that could be ubplugged. But then, a piece of black photographic tape would do the job too…

  4. It is bound to rise (the market share that is). I have switched just a couple of weeks ago, ordered a MacBook as soon as they were out. I know many others who were waiting for it, and have now bought one – all of them first-time Mac buyers.

  5. Another useless market share speculation story nobody will remember 2 days from now. How many freaking market share news items do we need? When Market share significantly increases THAT will be news. All this is pure speculation.

    Analysts, Analysts. Analysts. Analysts…….

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