“Apple Computer[/org] could see slight downside to analysts’ fiscal third-quarter iPod unit estimates, according to a recent Piper Jaffray report. ‘While it is way too early to make a call on June quarter iPod results, we have analyzed the first month of NPD data (April) for the quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of around 8 million,’ wrote analyst Gene Munster. The Street is currently looking for 8.6 million iPods in the June quarter; Munster’s model anticipates 8.25 million,” Maya Roney reports for Forbes.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Note: Last quarter, Apple shipped 8,526,000 iPod units. In their year ago fiscal third-quarter, Apple shipped 6.155 million iPods.
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Why is it a stock goes up and down based on the guesses of some analyst who works for a firm that has no direct data on how things are progressing.
I can come up with an random number every quarter and bitch about apple not selling enough to meet my estimates, anyone want to hire me as an overpaid guess merchant.
Market Newbie —
I have wondered that same thing so many times. These clowns are affecting MY investment.
BINGO.
People have guesses.
Experts have opinions.
Writer Experts have idiot opinions.
Ever notice how the analysists never get rated for how badly they guess.
Hey, Its a monday. JMHO
N.
My prediction: 9+ million iPods sold in the third quarter.
Hey Mr Market_newbie,
Analysts have bugger all to do with the share price. That is determined by the buyers and sellers. People like yourself.
Analysts try and read the market and make predictions with a very misty crystal ball. All for the purpose to try and help Numtpies like you and me. Check out the first four letters of their profession! Enough said.
Although the actual price of the share is important there are other aspects that need to be looked at as well. One is the dividend they pay at the end of financial period.
Google – Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) for more info. It is not easy, never has been, but over a long period of time, maybe 7-10 years, with good blue chip stocks you will do pretty well. Don’t be scared, go in gently, choose wisely from good stock, like Apple and you will be OK. Spread your money over a specific period of time like a year and invest some each month on various stock. it is called dollar cost averaging and gives you a good spread of the market a varying prices as opposed to putting all your money in the market on one day.
Go for it.
Leo
i think ipod demand will stay where it is now until they ‘force’ people into the apple store because of the next must have design which we know apple can come up with.
i think the much talked about virtual-interface using software and a touchscreen will be that device.
hopefully incorporating a phone, but that may be the next version after.
Analysts control the market. They spread the hype. This is nothing new.
However, they have analytical data based upon the suppliers for the finished product which they compare against models from history – I.e. shipping now Vs. a year ago and so on.
Didn’t you learn this stuff in “Genius School”? “Geez”
“Frickin’ Idiod”
MdN word: College – as in, you should go back
Analyst guesses.
Analyst is wrong.
Apple misses mark?
WTF?
“i think the much talked about virtual-interface using software and a touchscreen will be that device.”
——–
And why do you think that? Because someone “guessed” that is what will be next and you believe it? Think about it, we have no idea what the next iPod will be like.. Just because someone dug into Apple’s patent filings and came up with the notion that the next iPod will feautre a full touch screen interface does not mean that this will be… Apple files hundreds of patents with technologies that never actually make it into products.. For all we know, Apple’s touch-screen patent could be for a completely different device which may not surface for many years, or never.. Rumors are dangerous to AAPl stock. Stop believing them, they are rarely true.
What’s the big deal between 8.6 versus 8.25 million sold? I would consider it more a problem if they expected 8.6 and are only getting 4.25 million sold then I would be concerned.
Not bad news at all. The sales had to plateu off at some point.
Apple are waiting quite a lot time before refreshing the iPod range. I wonder if they are hoping to wait till August to milk the current offerings as long as possible.
Obviously they have huge improvements for the next generation, which will sell like hot cakes, but in the meantime the sales are clearly leveling off.
Still to sell 14+8.5+8.5+8.5= 40 million for the year ending this september will be amazing. Basically Apple will have doubled its total sales in a year. That’s good news and even if iPod sales are leveling off it’s still very profitable.
Add in the profits from the new macs and Apple to going to be doing very well these next few quarters even without refreshed iPods.
That’s the way I see it.
I assume apple would drop prices to increase sales if necessary.
Why is it a stock goes up and down based on the guesses of some analyst who works for a firm that has no direct data on how things are progressing.
My own guestimate for Q3 iPod sales is 9,037,560. All other things being equal that results in an EPS at the July earnings call of 50¢.
Redcucing my guestimate of iPod units sold by 10% results in an EPS of 48¢, still quite a bit higher than Apple’s guidance.
Credentials: I have been forecasting Apple’s performance for quite some time. During the Christmas quarter I forecasted 14,000,000 iPods sold when the Street was having trouble with 10,000,000. Apple sold 14,043,000 units.
I post my forecasts here several times per quarter.
The product line is stale, and a summer refresh, as they usually do is nowhere on the horizon. No surprises here.
The sales had to plateu off at some point.
———
Sales haven’t plateued off.. Even if they sell 8 million units, the year ago quarter was 6.25 million… That is still almost 25% year over year growth…
I assume apple would drop prices to increase sales if necessary
———-
When you ASSume, you make an ASS of U and ME.
Prices will remain the same, new features will be added in next revision.
Hey, Big Al –
I’m with you! On the other hand, if at some point along this road Apple said “We expect to ship _____ iPods this quarter” and then they don’t, that’s certainly worthy of “missing the mark” that Apple set themselves.
But when an analyst sets “the mark” by his fuzzy crystal ball with no hard data but past performance, that’s just laughable.
Apple are waiting quite a lot time before refreshing the iPod range. I wonder if they are hoping to wait till August to milk the current offerings as long as possible.
Obviously they have huge improvements for the next generation, which will sell like hot cakes, but in the meantime the sales are clearly leveling off.
—————–
The Nanos were released in Sep, the iPods in October… 7-8 months in not “quite a lot of time” for a product and is not anywhere near “milking current offerings.
Sales are not “clearly leveling-off.” 8 million units this quarter vs. 6.25 million units in the year ago quarter is 25% growth, which is extremely healthy, not leveling off. Growth rate is no longer in the 300% range because Apple are selling millions of these things per quarter now…
who doesn´t already own an ipod?
apple stock nearing under $60 mark.
gulp.
I went to a birthday party Saturday night for a friend–whose wife and daughter gave him a brand new 60GB iPod. We have two 3rdGens in our household, so the birthday boy asked a couple of quick and easy usage questions . . . and then wondered why I didn’t have a new one like his. The answer was also quick and easy:
WE’RE WAITING FOR THE NEW ONES!
The pent-up demand for Apple’s next iPod (VPod?) is incredible, Ladies and Gents, I can assure you. Can’t wait for the release, and neither can my credit card!
Quote
Sales are not “clearly leveling-off.” 8 million units this quarter vs. 6.25 million units in the year ago quarter is 25% growth, which is extremely healthy, not leveling off. Growth rate is no longer in the 300% range because Apple are selling millions of these things per quarter now…
Of course that is leveling off. The rate of growth is slowing for the when you compare year on year for each quarter. 25 % growth whiles still amazing is not comparable to the prevoius year on year growth.
And as I pointed out earlier this is for a number of reasons – the primary one being the lack of new models driving yet another peak in demand.
Now I don’t think that the growth will continue to slow down because Apple will come out with new versions that will stimulate further demand. Whether this be cheaper nanos, larger capacity iPod video and nanos or something totally amazing like the a true video pod.
Last year Apple came out with a lot of new pods: shuffle, nano and video. Since then they’ve been taking a breather and whilst demand is superb, it has not resulted in the level of new custom as before. It is not suprising that without new products that sales are not growing as fast as before. Apple are not close to aturating the market yet and in any case they will generate new markets with their new products.
I bought 3 Nanos last week, doesn’t that count? BTW, they’re bloody gorgeous those little things.
These announcements have much more to do with the way financial analysts make money for their clients, than with how Apple will perform..
It’s been referred to as “Monkey business”…
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/1999/0614/6312301a.html
SEE, IF APPLE WAS DOING SO GREAT, THEY WOULDNT BE RELEASING ALL THESE NEW STUFF RIGHT NOW, THEY WOULD HAVE WAITED FOR CHRISTMASS SEASON TO START.
ITS OBVIOUS.
SALES ARE SLUGGISH.