Needham: Apple Mac sales could surge due to Boot Camp, newfound ability to run Windows apps

“Apple Computer effectively dodged the Intel transition bullet in its second fiscal quarter of this year and its progress in the personal computer market could lead to a sharp rise in Mac sales once the transition has completed, analyst for Needham & Co said this week,” Katie Marsal reports for AppleInsider. “‘…Once the transition is complete by the first quarter of fiscal 2007, we believe Mac shipments have the potential to surge on the strength of the Mac’s newfound ability to run Windows applications along side Mac applications,’ analyst Charles Wolf wrote in a research note released Thursday. ‘Our initial survey of college students indicated a material percentage of Windows users would purchase a Mac if it could run Windows applications natively,’ he said. ‘However, the higher education market is one of the Mac’s strongholds.'”

Marsal reports, “As a result, the analyst believes the switch rate among the entire population of Windows users in the home and education markets could be lower. Wolf said, ‘We are preparing a second survey that targets this audience. What’s noteworthy, however, is that the switch rate could be far lower among this group and still generate significant market share gains for Apple.'”

Full article here.

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  1. When I was in college (1997-2001), Macs were a joke. No one wanted them. A Mac sitting on someone’s desk was very rare, and led to quite a bit of merciless teasing. The OS was just so, so, so bad. But that’s completely different now. Apple has its cool back, and people want them again. All of the interesting stuff that’s going on today is coming out of Apple. That’s a complete reversal of the way things were in the ’90s.

  2. Ampar,you think that would be an advantage for Apple?

    How about we also include an installed “custom built” base as well….those who build their computers instead of buying them.

    Apple’s marketshare would plummet through the basement on its way to China if you insist on “installed user base.”

  3. What I’m afraid of is that Apple will lose it’s eductional stronghold because now whenever there is a motivation by staff or administration to become “more Windows compliant”, it’s a realatively simple matter to swith the Intel Mac’s to Windows pernamently.

    Before the hardware lock in had them, they would have to think carefully about a OS switch along with the next hardware upgrade cycle.

    Now it’s just a snap, poof, goodbye Mac OS X.

    I think BootCamp is going to hurt Apple dearly.

  4. At the end of the day, the vast majority of people do not rely on windows only software, they more rely on…hand me down computers, IT guy friends help, free pirate software. most people write the odd letter and email, plug in theire ipod and upload photos they will never get around to printing.

  5. Sammy: Honestly, I don’t know.
    Perhaps showing a growth trend in installed base would be good motivation for developers.

    “those who build their computers instead of buying them” Isn’t that a relatively small number? About as many hardcore gamers? Just asking.

    MW: why?

  6. If the higher education market is a stronghold, that will slowly begin to transition to the older generations as well, as college kids grow up and into the business world. It’s the old fogeys and MS nerds that are stuck in the WIndows mindset – after all, they wouldn’t want all that information about fixing computers that get messed up to be for nothing, right?

  7. It’s actually quite a huge number. You don’t have to be a “hardcore gamer” to build a PC (although gamers in general represent a much larger marketshare than Mac users, so it is not a “relatively small number” as you put it).

    The “aftermarket” presence for PC’s is a highly thriving industry with big names like ASUS, Gigabyte, MSI, DFI, etc…none of which are counted in PC sales, yet represent a significant portion of user installed base.

  8. My father-in-law switched to a PC about 4 years ago out of necessity (to work from home). He was a long time Mac user and really hates Windows (though he is used to it now). He is quite excited about the proposition of having a Mac that can boot Windows for when he needs to work from home. And he is ready to buy a new computer in the next 6 months.

    My mother-in-law has a PC because one of her daughters (not my wife)insists she has a Windows box. But my mother-in-law is a teacher and has a Mac at school, so she wold like a Mac at home. Now, she can have her cake and eat it to.

    So, there is my anecdotal evidence that Boot Camp will indeed gain switchers for Apple.

  9. To each that believe “boot camp” will harm Apple and in the education market cause a reversale of Mac OSX.

    The alarm is uncalled for, lacking depth of thought, and concentric to particluar platform base.

    When you offer “two computers” in dual booting form, vm, or otherwise…you open up dicussion on many levels of use and user knowledge. And since I have used Apple as my core computer for many years now, I can show the speed difference in media creation and otherwise.

    You can screen shot an image an move that through several applications on Apple and display it with transition in a tid bit over a minute. As such, I asked my friend to do the same…..he give up after more than 20 minutes( could never beat the time or ease).

    Now that is not always the cause in every situation, but he is very quiet when people talk about boot camp now. Why, because he has been shown productivity methods that is not currently as efficent on the XP system he uses in school. And now has no reason to rally to have Dells in the school system. He is also looking at information on Mac Minis as a way to bridge his knowledge on both platforms, reason? He has difficultly in producing media (yes, not every pc user has this problem) but since the intergration can make basic to advance media more promising, he is willing to “learn.” Thus, education more balanced.

    Now, if boot camp will allow dual systems on campus, it will make much more logic to have these systems so every teacher can use every computer on which 0S he/she is sided to. And soon the major differences and ignorance of both systems will be reduced.

    Anyone, still under the impression that this is a bad thing? Mac sales will go up as the Windows users find that the Mac is, indeed, more advance than the current XP with what I believe is a less difficult interface.

    Let it be on record….these are the days for comparsion (We know Microsoft never won the interface game, now it will be the business side that will challenge Microsoft.

  10. re:”How about we also include an installed “custom built” base as well….those who build their computers instead of buying them”

    Give me a break, you guys don’t “build” your computers, you ASSEMBLE them from generic pieces, just like a model airplane.

  11. Give me a break, a high quality Nvidia Nforce4 based motherboard manufactured by ASUS is NOT generic, neither is a ULI/Crossfire based motherboard produced by another top tier manufacturer. Low tier OEM no-name motherboards are “generic.”

    You want to give grief over “build” and “assemble”, yet not apply the same logic to “generic”? Please, give me a break.

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