“Apple’s second quarter is expected to be weak compared with its December quarter, as sales of iPods and other consumer electronics typically stall after the holidays,” The Associated Press reports. “In January the company projected earnings of about 38 cents per share, including 4 cents per share for stock option expenses, on $4.3 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect the company to earn, on average, 43 cents per share on $4.54 billion in revenue.”
“Merrill Lynch analyst Richard Farmer, who recently lowered his 2006 iPod sales estimates to 47 million from 53 million, suggested that the company’s “Boot Camp” roll out has been overestimated by the investment community. Still, Farmer believes the introduction of “Boot Camp” could result in an “incremental” increase in Macintosh computer sales in 2007. Farmer has a ‘Neutral’ rating on Apple,” AP reports. “American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu, who has a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock, suspects the company will deliver a “solid” March quarter, and expects the company to issue fairly conservative guidance.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: How good of a prognosticator are you? How many Mac units for the quarter? How many iPod units? Total revenue? Please post your predictions below and we’ll check back after Wednesday’s earning release. Apple’s record-setting Q1 2006 (holiday quarter ended December 31, 2005) saw 1,254,000 Mac units shipped, 14,043,000 iPods, and revenue of $5.75 billion. At the release of Q1 2006 earnings, Apple stated second quarter 2006 expectations of $4.3 billion in revenue, which some analysts saw as too conservative.
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Related article:
Apple FY 06 Second Quarter Results Conference Call this Wednesday – April 17, 2006
Apple reports Q1 2006 earnings results: record revenue and earnings – January 18, 2006
Analysts question Apple’s conservative guidance for company’s second fiscal quarter – January 18, 2006
4.4 billion
http://www.appleturns.com/
BUYBUYBUY…..SELLSELLSELL
I always guess wrong…that’s why I’ll just ‘Hold’ …long term looks good.
ANYONE can guess? Okay, here goes:
Mac units: 1M – based on post holid sales slump and moderate Intel transition impact as well as the lack of low cost Intel Notebooks in pipe (MacBook)
iPods: 8.5M – based on aging product line and possibility some are awaiting “true” iPod video unit. Also depressed due to lack of vdeo availability and continuing pressure from also-rans.
Revenues: 4.3B – based on Apple guidance of 4.3B as Apple seeks to re-set analyst’s view that they are giving soft numbers. If they do wish to reset numbers, this is the quarter to do it before back to school and holiday sales get in the forecast.
I’m sure – even if they beat the street – the stock will plummet. There is no logic involved when it comes to the ups and downs of Apple’s stock price.
“What are your expectations for Apple’s earnings report this Wednesday?”
AAPL will beat the Street and the stock will go down. Deja vu all over again.
OK, so when it’s just naming 3 numbers, here I go:
Macs: 1.4 Million
iPods: 12 Million
Revenue: 4.9 B
Mac units: 1.1M
iPods: 8M
Revenues: 4.4B
Earnings: 42 cents
Mac units shipped were mostly higher margin units. Some problems with the MacBook Pros probably dragged on earnings.
Apple has begun peddling accessories. This will increase earnings. No significant new ipod releases though, and this will hurt a bit.
Apple must have had some higher content distribution revenue this quarter, due mainly to gift card-spillover from the holiday season, and to new video content. The extra volume on iTunes is most likely high margin.
Is there a prize for closest prediction?
Interesting QA about macs…
http://www.venturacountystar.com/vcs/business/article/0,1375,VCS_128_4626399,00.html
Apple will report a loss of 42 million, but will later rescind this report, as the missing cash has been found under Steve’s sofa cushions.
Macs: 1.25 million
iPods: 14.5 million
Revenue: $4.45 B
And I’m in agreement that no matter what Apple announces, the stock will drop. Always happens. The market must just be programmed that way, I guess.
My guess is 4.8B in revenue 1mil Macs sold (mini volume makes up for some MacBook Pro shortages) and 10.1mil iPods
The stock will be a little higher at these numbers, if less than these, the stock will drop down to $56-57, if higher than these numbers, the stock will rally to challenge the ytd high of $86.
Mac units: 1.1M
iPods: 8.5M
Revenues: 4.6B
Earnings: 43 cents
Overall, not too bad, but I’m sure the market will react badly. The surprise may be that they sold a lot more MBPs than anticipated since demand and supply were close to parity by the end of the quarter. Whether the iMac sales are good will be interesting too.
Apple may comment on how well Intel are at meeting deadlines. May certainly help justify the transistion.
As for pods – there’s a bit of slump cos the nano needs updating though the improved margin with increased video pod sales may help the profit line.
Doesn’t matter. This is an interim period we are in. Apple’s conversion to a company that sells aluminum boxes to run Vista and the producer of tunes for players (that they ship by the tens of millions)is well underway. When everyone recongizes this as Steve’s plan, and respond to it, then a proper prediction can be made. While so many are in denial, it’s a crap shoot – heck, it’s a crap shoot anyway.
macs-1.1 million
i-pods-9.7 million
sales-4.97 billion
I think that “R” and “Ampar” are right. Apple will beat the street but the stock price will then drop at least 10%.
However, I am in for the long haul.
It´s the forward forecasting that counts. Last quarter´s sales are old news when released on April 19th – the stock now reflects it (down).
All that counts is what Apple says about going forward and that will not be too uplifting or positive.
iPod sales not growing as fast (who doesn´t already own one or two);
Apple not bringing out new product fast enough,
Video through iTunes has stalled or dying,
delay in iPod video,
no one in their right mind would by a PowerPC mac after release of BootCamp – so those sales dead/stagnant/moved to the leftover dept.,
New Mactels not coming on line fast enough.
Next two quarters will be not so good.
Revenue: $4.45 billion
iPods: 8.75 million / $1.8 billion – lots of sales left over from Christmas quarter in Europe which was undersupplied in comparison to USA.
Macs: 1.175 million /$1.6 billion – not as many units as recently, but high-value notebook shipments.
Other items: $1.05 billion – a shedload of iTunes brings in the best part of $300 million.
Profit: $450 million
Apple has managed to capture the music market.
Apple has also managed to capture the mp3 player market.
Apple is also managing to capture the OS market.
Apple is also managing to capture the PC hardware market.
Apple is also into movies now with pixar and disney, CARS will be released soon.
Whats next for Apple? A Search engine? Like Google?
Why Not?
We know Steve jobs is up to many tasks, he has mentioned there would be a lot of new products released this year.
I always get it wrong too, but my theory is, $63-$64 is a base for Apple’s stock even if there is any bad news, it can go above $70 , bank of america gives it a $77 and thats their pessimistic estimate.
Thanks, “wayback machine” for the props out to Jack and Anya – I fondly recall the quarterly beat the analysts contests. Sigh. What a great site ATAT has been.
My theory is that AAPL will beat the analysts, but the stock will again tank afterwards because it won’t beat their estimates *enough*!
wry grin
Macs: 1.025 million
iPods: 11 million
Revenue: 4.6 billion
Apple will not like selling less than 1 million Macs and 10 million iPods per quarter now. I have a feeling that these numbers are Steve’s personal targets from here on out. Neither should be too hard to accomplish, if they can get supply of the new Intel Macs up to the necessary levels (especially the new Pro Macs coming out in the next few months).
Nevertheless, the market won’t react well unless we see 1.5 million Macs and 15 million iPods… so expect a brief drop in price. But it will rebound fairly quickly on numerous upcoming announcements.
–mAc
Why was BootCamp released before this report and after the TechWiz of Apple resigned on March 31???
My predictions:
Macs – 1.20 million
iPods – 9.5 million
45 cents per share.
That was fun.