“I’ve got as much reason to hate Microsoft as anyone else does — after all, I use a computer. I need to kill Internet Explorer about 10 times a day because someone at Mr. Softy HQ can’t get things right. My beloved, 10-year-old SCSI devices no longer work the same as they used to because Redmond decided, with Windows XP, to drop a few things into the roadside ditch along the Information Superhighway,” Seth Jayson writes for The Motley Fool. “After this week’s announcement of yet another delay in the next-generation operating system, Vista, I am starting to wonder whether Microsoft isn’t set to disappoint us for a lot longer than I expected.”
“Let’s review the Vista timeline, shall we? Beginning with the folksy-sounding code name ‘Longhorn,’ Vista first surfaced shortly after dinosaurs sprouted wings, roughly 36 Macintosh operating systems ago, or, in the common tongue, some time back in 2001. After years of preliminary work, it was ditched and reworked, and then we were told to look for it in 2006. Then we were told not really to look for the whole thing in 2006, but some of it, though minus the fancy new file system, which we’d see in 2007,” Jayson writes. “Now we’re told that the business version (minus the fancy file system that businesses might like, I think) will make it out in 2006 but the consumer versions are on for January, which pushes it to 2007. Anyone else dizzy?”
“Microsoft cannot afford to lose [the] battle in the living room to the likes of Apple, long rumored to be working on a media ‘convergence’ device. And the delay in Vista, once again, leaves the door open longer than it needs to,” Jayson writes.
Full article here.
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His Longhorn timeline is way oversimplified. It was originally stated by MS that it was going to be released in 2003. Then features were cut and it was going to be released in 2004. Then it was scrapped completely and they decided to just make a prettier version of Windows Server 2003 instead, that was supposed to be out in 2006. Then more features were cut (EFI was the latest to get the ax) and now it’s supposed to be out in January 2007, a release date which makes no sense whatsoever. (Right AFTER Christmas? Yeah right.) If anyone believes Vista (aka Windows XP SP4) will be out in January 2007, I have an acre of land on the moon to sell you. Ditto to anyone who thinks it’s going to have any revolutionary features that equal what OS X comes with today, like GarageBand, iMovie, iDVD, etc.
Windows Vista: Same Shit, Different Theme.
(How’s that for an ad slogan?)
Oh this makes sense… after all, Mac OS X has only been out for 4 years. A delay of 3 months for Vista will make all the people that have ignored Mac OS X for those 4 years suddenly go “WAIT! I’m getting a Mac!”.
Give me a break
The front porch light may be on, but that doesn’t mean anybody’s going to knock on the door. I’m a pessimist-OS X sales (not penetration) for 10.4/5 will increase at best 2-3% no matter what Apple does. The fact is that for the overwhelming percentage of average buyers, the delay for Vista is a total, total non-event. This means alot to us; but is meaningless for the average person.
Good one, “Simon”. How about …
(to Microsoft):
“They take you down, I don’t expect to grieve over much. Like to kill you myself, I see you again.”
SiROM, next time you talk to Steve, ask him about the advertising problem.
Game Over Man!
The best thing Microsoft could have done…
Would have been to accept the Department of Justice anti-trust solution and allow the company to be broken up. Separating the OS from the applications and services would have allowed them to remain focused. It also would have removed Ballmer from management of the whole company. He’s a salesman, not a manager. His vision of the future is wishing he could see his feet past his gut.
Now MS will be years late in splitting up the company to make it manageable. They’ll pull the plug on Vista, purchase a Linux vendor and then use the Linux distro as the core of a new OS. It’s their only hope…
IMHO the situation is this:
Vista being delayed over and over makes not a bit of difference because in the world of windows users the vast majority of them have never heard of Vista, are not aware that Microsoft is working on a replacement to XP, nor are they aware that XP is an aging OS with major security problems.
Heck for that matter do you honestly think the majority of windows user know other OS’s exist?
Seriously, how many average windows users are lying awake at night fretting that Vista has been delayed again? My bet, zero.
As far as advertsing how do you advertise OS X (or iLife) to the above mentioned windows masses?
The only format I can think of that would allow enough time to convey the message and possibly make converts would be that most degrading of all forms of advertsing, the 30 minute infomercal. Personally I think Mr Jobs has far, far too much dignity to go that route.
And that’s my 2 cents worth.
Colonel Panic:
I’ve tried talking to Steve about the advertising issue, but he always has that damn iPod HiFi blaring and HE CAN”T HEAR ME!!!!!
How about for fun we have a pool to decide when Vista is released? The winner could receive a copy of, I dunno maybe 10.5.
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If you think that a well designed, aggressive advertising campaign can gain Mac OSX market share perhaps you’d better Think Different.
Great call Stephen!
I actually remember the days when Apple made infomercials.
I think they should do them again.
Yippppeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Go infomercials!
http://www.hawthornedirect.com/caseStudies/apple_case_studies.html