Microsoft Vista fumble could lead to score for Apple Mac; Mac OS X Leopard may beat Vista to market

“If there’s one company that stands to benefit from the delay of Microsoft’s Windows Vista operating system, it’s Apple Computer, analysts said,” Joris Evers and Ina Fried report for CNET News. “While Microsoft has been struggling to release its new operating system, Apple has regularly put out updates for its Mac OS. Moreover, Apple is already strong in areas where Microsoft has promised to deliver key improvements with Vista: security, and features such as video and photo editing and search, analysts said. ‘Apple is the one clear beneficiary of the flip in Vista,’ said Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray. If shoppers are looking for what Vista has been promising, the decision is easy, he said. Before, ‘they would have…had to look at a PC against a Mac. Now they only have one choice, at least for this holiday season, and that’s the Mac.'”

“Microsoft’s loss is Apple’s gain is the consensus among analysts. ‘Apple…should enjoy a less competitive market for another holiday season against an aging Windows offering,’ Richard Farmer, an analyst with Merrill Lynch, wrote in a research note Wednesday,” Evers and Fried report. “The Vista delay is most likely to be felt by those trying to sell into the consumer market, a space Apple knows very well, Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg said. ‘It is a real opportunity for Apple to tout the features of their operating system and, of course, the fact that that operating system is available now.’ Apple shipped 4.5 million Macs in its 2005 fiscal year, which ended last September. That was up 38 percent from 3.3 million units in the earlier year, according to American Technology Research. For the current year, the research outfit predicts that Apple will ship 4.8 million Macs [as the transition to Intel processors takes place], a 5 percent year-on-year increase, Wu said.”

“Apple’s quicker pace has allowed it to get new features into its operating system faster. For example, both Microsoft and Apple talked about the need for improved desktop search at roughly the same time. Apple shipped the feature as part of a Mac OS X 10.4 update last April, while Microsoft’s similar feature won’t show up until Vista, though the company has made a downloadable desktop search add-on available amid competition from Google and others. Many of the new music-handling and photo management tools in Vista are also strikingly similar to features that Apple has either in its OS or in companion products such as iPhoto and iTunes,” Evers and Fried report. Apple “is slated to release Leopard, the next release of OS X, either late this year or early next year. That means it too could conceivably be on new machines before Vista.”

Full article here.

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Related articles:
BusinessWeek poll: Will you buy an Apple Mac due to Microsoft Windows Vista delay? – March 23, 2006
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What’s the difference between Mac OS X and Vista? Microsoft employees are excited about Mac OS X – March 22, 2006
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27 Comments

  1. No matter what Apple does, the average MS user will not leave their DELL computers.

    Old dogs and new tricks has a lot of truth to it.

    We will be confined to a small market share. Take a cue from the cigarette companies Apple, get ’em when they’re young, then they’ll be hooked for life, get those laptops in them schools.

  2. Remember what has happened to Apple OS Copland in 1992…they promised to release Copland OS in 1993 then posponed to 1994. But, 1995 Macworld, they announced that Copland is dead!
    That’s when Windows 95 had flipped and took most of Apple’s marketshare within 2 years in time.
    Now, Vista is doing exactly the same thing as the Copland project did. It’s not a rocket science to figure this out based on history! History tells us the future, that’s it!
    Buy Apple stocks and you won’t regret it!

  3. Apple won´t meet its deadline for Leopard.

    Already pushed back developers world thingy 3 months.

    Problems with Intel chips (delivery and quality).

    When Vista finally comes out – everyone will go what´s an Apple??? —-again.

    Apple is becoming a delivery mechanism/gadget maker for media: music and video. Interactive TVs – handheld, laptop, desktop. Apple will be trying to convince everyone they are computers, but they will just be interactive TVs where Apple gets coin for every one you buy. But these iTVs don´t play the latest computer games…

  4. “For the current year, the research outfit predicts that Apple will ship 4.8 million Macs [as the transition to Intel processors takes place], a 5 percent year-on-year increase, Wu said.”

    I just bought a refurbished 14″ iBook for my daughter in college. Does that count as one of the “4.8 million Macs?”

  5. I’ll have to disagree with ya there, deedubya…

    Apple is a lot more than it used to be – there are now strikingly few stumbling blocks to switching platforms. I switched in 2001, and had issues with printers, scanners, websites, etc., but with the iPod out there, Apple is a huge brand name…

    I work at a large company, and everyone knows I use macs at home. More and more people have asked me of late about the difficulties of using macs vs windows, now that they see iTunes, and there is none of that automatic turn-off when Apple is mentioned.

    It takes time, but smart folks will always look for the best product.

  6. “Take a cue from the cigarette companies Apple, get ’em when they’re young…”

    Yeah this is called the iPod. And for all of those who blast Apple and their dancing silhouette advertisements, maybe now you know why they do it. It’s about getting younger people using their products.

  7. Macdude´s other aunt said:

    “Apple is becoming a delivery mechanism/gadget maker for media: music and video. Interactive TVs – handheld, laptop, desktop. Apple will be trying to convince everyone they are computers, but they will just be interactive TVs where Apple gets coin for every one you buy. But these iTVs don´t play the latest computer games…”

    The latest computer games are meant to be played in a special breed of consoles which they convinced us that were able to do office tasks and so on. So, lets the new consoles (formerly known as PCs ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” /> play the last generation of games.

  8. Will MS ever release Vista?

    Balmy and Billy know the truth, there’s just nothing all that compelling about Vista.

    They’ve stuck some pretty Mac-like graphics on the same old tired core plus they’ve dramatically upped the system requirements to run this foo foo gingerbread.

    When the word gets out that Vista is the same old tired shit dressed up in a new suit, MS paid upgrades are gonna shrivel fast.

    Maybe with a couple more months they can think of something to glom onto Vista that will catch on.

    More bad news for MS, lowend Apple Intel Macs are running XP pretty damned good without any company support. This is going to let a lot of folks repurpose their XP system disks to add MS compatibility to their new Apple computer purchase. Talk about “backwards compatible”.

  9. “analysts,analysts,analysts,analysts!”

    egosport: “Buy Apple stocks and you won’t regret it!”
    I understand your enthusiasm, but, when Apple stock hit around $87 it was pumped up on hype (i.e. HUMAN NATURE). The stock is now “correcting itself” to a more realistic state. I have no crystal ball, but I expect it to drop a little further before stabilizing. I think this is going to be a rougher year (sales wise) for Apple than people think. Supply problems being some of the cause. I also keep hearing more and more quality issues with the MacBook Pro’s (hopefully they will get this under control ASAP). As for iPod sales, they could hit the roof or plateau. I think Apple is really going to have to depend on iPod sales this year to keep the juggernaut going. This “Intel Transition Year” is no doubt going to have some rough patches (as to be expected from something like this). I wouldn’t count on APPL hitting $100 anytime soon (honestly, I don’t ever see APPL stock hitting $100 and SUSTAINING that amount – again hype). That would be about a 66% increase in nine months. That’s a hefty amount. Flame all you want, but I would be cautious of buying APPL unless you have some serious liquid. FUNDAMENTALS. Save this post and bash me if I’m wrong – I actually hope I am wrong as I love Apple, but sometimes you have to step back and look at things objectively. Just information – process it as you wish.

    “Why did Steve Jobs sell nearly half of his Apple shares on 3-19-06.”

    Didn’t hear about that – interesting though………

  10. JadisOne:
    SJ has maintained his lifestyle with proceeds from NeXt sale and previous stint at Apple. Disney shares will pay him dividends of about $18+ million per annum. I doubt cash flow is his concern.

  11. I have adamantly stated that Vista will SUCK, BUT, if this PARTICULAR fumble by M$ increases Apples market share by more than 1% I would be highly suprised. I am just trying to be realistic – I’m not demanding agreement.

    Microsoft OWNS corporate America. Hell, some places now are just getting onto the XP bandwagon! They could care less when and if Vista ships, and will probably not migrate anytime soon. Even a die-hard Windows IT person will know better than to deploy V1 of Vista. It’ll take 2 years before even being considered on the corporate desktop. That being said, they will STILL NOT look to OS X as an alternative. Everything they own depends on Windows and it will stay that way. They have too much money tied up in Windows based systems and a slight delay in Vista means nothing to them.

    On the consumer side, I can really see a positive effect here, especially during the holiday quarter. Still, I feel Apples market share will not make astounding gains. Would it be great if it did? – sure! Is it necessary? – No. Apple can sustain itself quite nicely with a smaller percentage of the market. Their low market share does not mean they have an inferior product – quite the opposite actually.

    A couple of quotes from Steve Jobs “Return” Keynote from 1997(yes, I know that was quite some time ago):

    [1] “We have to let go of this notion that for Apple to win, Microsoft has to lose”

    [2] “The era of setting this up as a competition between Apple and Microsoft is over as far as I’m concerned”

    In 1997 Microsoft HELPED Apple by buying 150 million dollars in Apple stock (non voting shares). Microsoft HELPED Apple – GASP!. Shocking, but true.

    Also, Apple and Microsoft agreed to a patent cross licensing agreement which consisted of PERPETUAL cross licensing of CURRENT patents, and patents for the next FIVE years (1997-2002). That’s a long time to have M$ share patent rights.

    I am NOT a M$ apologist. Windows absolutely sucks in my opinion, but Apple dropped the ball in the nineties and M$ took the opportunity to sieze corporate America. Its a fact. A regrettable one, but a fact nonetheless.

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