Forget the iPod’s halo; the real Mac sales will come when people face Windows Vista upgrade decision

“Some analysts think there will be as many as 9 to 10 million Macintelatoshes this year, which would be about 2.5 times as many as the 4 million Macs in 2005. That’s a hell of a ramp, and Apple’s never shown an inclination to flood a tight market with units,” Doug Mohney writes for The Inquirer. “By the way, is Intel so desperate for increased business that 1) their CEO needs to dress up in a bunny suit to show up at MacWorld 2) Give Apple first dibs on the Duo Core in its new machines and 3) Having committed these two acts of submission, then let Apple ignore Viiv and instead say ‘Hey, we’ve freed the chip from the box?’ Andy Grove would have NEVER worn a bunny suit for Mr. Jobs. It being San Francisco, Otellini should feel lucky he wasn’t handed a costume including black leather chaps.”

Forget about the iPod Halo Effect says Mohney, “The real pull-through will come when people start thinking about their options when Windows Vista comes to market sometime this year. Since it’s going to be the ‘Largest upgrade since Windows ’95,’ according to Microsoft, that likely means a big hardware upgrade for nearly everything that was produced before July 1, 2005. People are going to go down to their Big Box store, look at the expensive, still-ugly PCs and the nice-looking Macs, compare the two side-by-side. They’ll take a cursory look at the user interfaces between Vista and the Mac and see, well, they look pretty much alike and they have the same chips in them and the Mac can run PC software in emulation (and maybe later more directly in some fashion) but the PC can’t run Mac-ware.”

“A lot of people are going to realize they are going to hang onto their hardware for four to five years, so they might be willing to shell out a little more cash up front and buy the better looking Mac-intelatosh,” Mohney writes. “Exactly how many will switch remains to be seen, however. There are also a chunk of people who are running Windows 98 SE and a lot of Windows XP users that have no rush to get into Vista. On the other hand, aiding and abetting Apple is a large fifth column of journalists around the globe that are unabashedly Mac-worshippers. You can spot them pretty clearly when they start talking about Windows, they’ve dropped ‘poor security’ and ‘bloated’ into the conversation by the second sentence.

“The real winner in all of this is Intel,” Mohney writes. “While Dell, HP, and other manufacturers expand their use of AMD chips, Apple comes on board with a hotter-looking box and a 100 percent (for now) loyalty to Chipzilla. You don’t hear Apple talking about AMD chips, hmm? And Intel doesn’t have to share marketing money with Apple! Mr. Otellini, I apologize for the bunny suit remarks.”

Mohney has more in his full article here.

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Related articles:
Is there really an Apple ‘iPod Halo Effect’ behind Mac sales or not? – November 17, 2005
Analyst: ‘there are definitely a lot of people joining Apple Mac ecosystem for the first time’ – November 08, 2005
Analyst estimates over a million Windows to Mac switchers during 2005’s first three quarters – November 07, 2005
Microsoft executives acknowledge Apple’s ‘iPod Halo Effect’ – July 29, 2005
RealMoney: Apple’s iPod Halo Effect ‘quite profound,’ Macs taking good market share from Wintel – June 27, 2005
The Street’s Wolverton: Apple’s iPod halo shines – July 19, 2005
Needham & Co: Apple ‘iPod Halo Effect’ fueling Mac purchases; predict 43 million iPod sales in 2006 – July 18, 2005
Comprehensive survey shows ‘iPod Halo Effect’ is increasing Apple Mac sales, market share – July 12, 2005
SG Cowen survey shows evidence of a significant iPod halo effect boosting Apple Mac sales – July 12, 2005
Merrill Lynch: Mac sales ‘appear robust,’ expects futher evidence of ‘iPod Halo Effect’ – July 07, 2005
Morgan Stanley: Apple’s ‘iPod Halo Effect’ is ‘roughly double what the market expects’ – March 18, 2005
Apple execs now see ‘iPod Halo Effect’ clearly paying off with higher Macintosh sales – January 13, 2005
IDC VP Roger Kay sees no evidence of Apple ‘iPod Halo Effect’ based on ‘Apple’s desktop share’ – January 10, 2005

46 Comments

  1. Yah. Ummm, Apple better have their computers at reasonably competitive prices (+$200 to equivalent Dell) if they expect to make inroads during this MASSIVE opportunity. I wouldn’t hold my breath.

  2. I have to wonder how many people reading articles about Macworld are mussing the “Bunny” vs “Intel Bunny” suit distinction…

    MDN MW: “Seven”- Hmm, I guess I have my answer =P

  3. Enough with the bunny suit. They makie it sound like the Steve asked him to put on pink footie pajamas and a fake nose with whiskers or something. It’s the suit his engineers wear to work everyday. I didn’t think it made Paul look stupid or weak and can’t figure out why everyone thinks they need to start their article with a reference to it. I”m afraid it’s going to make him feel bitter about coopoerating with steve, when he really should just feel bitter about journalists need to start their article with something funny and unrelated to their topic.

  4. ” On the other hand, aiding and abetting Apple is a large fifth column of journalists around the globe that are unabashedly Mac-worshippers. You can spot them pretty clearly when they start talking about Windows, they’ve dropped “poor security” and “bloated” into the conversation by the second sentence.”

    OK. So when journalist report the facts and tell people that Windows has poor security and is, according to most industry insiders, is bloated, then they are aiding and abetting Apple. So what did it mean when by the second sentence they were all calling Apple beleagered, and had no software, and was too expensive, and too slow and too proprietary?

    Read with intelligence people. The rest will take care of itself.

  5. Flawed logic.

    The segment of the market that is willing to pay $$ for either a new OS and/or a system to run it are more than likely to stick with Windows.

    They have their legacy software and workflows to carry over. And if all your computer needs to run Vista is extra RAM or maybe a better graphics card, then that’s a lot cheaper than buying a mac and all-new software. It also means not having to learn new workflows.

    Lookit, metric is a simpler, less error-prone, more elegant system than US units, and Esperanto is a simpler impler, less error-prone, more elegant language than English. Dvorak keyboards are simpler, less error-prone, and more elegant than Qwerty keyboards.

    And so?

    To quote the article:

    “…so they might be willing to shell out a little more cash up front and buy the better looking Mac…”

    Err…then why hasn’t that always been true?

    Apple’s will be delighted profitably grow its market share a little, and to exploit new markets. The OS war is over, folks. Get over it.

  6. If the comparison between operating systems happens, and I think it will, Apple had better be able to show why OSX is better than Vista.

    If that does not happen, then very little will change.

    They are going to have to proactively SHOW PEOPLE THE DIFFERENCE.

    Whatever it takes.

    Be brave, put it out in front of them in specific terms.

    Steve, you started this war with OSX and the change to Intel chips.

    Now finish it.

  7. Geez, that guy is a dillweed. iPod has already led to more people using Macs and a LOT of the new iPod owners from last year got theirs for the holidays so the new switchers from that batch of iPod sales won’t come until this year. I have a ton of friends who got iPods and then got Macs, but also a bunch of other friends w/o iPods, but are getting into Macs because of the heightened profile of the Mac from iPod sales and from other iPod users switching…and some of my friends got Macs because of all the hoopla over Tiger and better security than Windows.

    http://musobs.blogspot.com

  8. RE:”The segment of the market that is willing to pay $$ for either a new OS and/or a system to run it are more than likely to stick with Windows”

    Everything I read about Vista will mean that those who want to use Vista will have to buy it all; hardware and operating system, plus probably most software.

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