Analyst: Windows Vista may still impress many consumers because they have not seen Apple’s Mac OS X

“Microsoft Corp., which has found a foothold in the consumer’s living room with its Xbox video game consoles, will be making a broader push in 2006 to help realize the elusive dream of a digital lifestyle for the masses, Chairman Bill Gates told a packed house in Las Vegas on Wednesday night,” Matthew Yi reports for The San Francisco Chronicle. “A key ingredient will be the release of the software giant’s next-generation operating system for personal computers, called Vista, which the company promises will start selling later this year, said Gates in his kick-off keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show.”

“2006 will be a crucial year for Microsoft, which has had enormous success in selling office productivity software but has made little progress in consumer electronics,” Yi reports. “‘There’s a lot riding on Vista,’ said Michael Gartenberg, an analyst at the market research firm Jupiter Research. ‘Vista must be successful if they want to be an important player in the digital home.’ Microsoft… is facing stiff competition on a number of fronts, analysts say. The list of its opponents ranges from consumer electronics giants such as Sony, which already rules the consumer living-room market, to its longtime nemesis Apple.”

“The new Vista operating system will provide a sleeker, 3-D user interface, such as translucent windows that let users see what other programs are running in the PC. The software will also have an improved digital photo archiving system that allows consumers to store, search and edit photos,” Yi reports. ‘A lot of what we’ve seen in Vista has similarities with [Mac OS X] Tiger,’ said Gartenberg, referring to the operating system on Apple Macintosh computers. Vista may still impress many consumers, because many of them may have never seen Apple’s operating system. Apple’s PC market share represents only about 3 to 4 percent of the industry, said Tim Bajarin, an analyst at the market research firm Creative Strategies.”

Full article here.
Apple needs to tell people via television (where you can still reach those who have no idea of Mac OS X) that Apple’s already done it long ago and has it available today. We hope they start soon. It would be criminal to continue to keep the story of the Mac from the average consumer. We firmly believe that short 5-10 minute video explaining what Mac OS X can do the the average personal computer users should be shipped on every video-capable iPod sold. Why this isn’t currently the case is baffling. Apple is squandering a huge opportunity to inform Windows iPod owners about Mac OS X. Apple doesn’t even need to Think Different to do such a thing, they just need to think.

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Related MacDailyNews articles:
Why in Jobs’ name doesn’t Apple advertise the Macintosh? – October 27, 2005
More would switch from Windows to Mac if Apple advertised more effectively – September 04, 2005
Forrester analysts: Apple should advertise Mac OS X Tiger on television and in movie theaters – April 29, 2005
Mac fans line up for new operating system as passberby asks ‘what is a tiger?’ – April 29, 2005
Apple posts QuickTime movies of Mac OS X Tiger features in action – April 13, 2005
Why doesn’t Apple advertise Mac OS X on TV? – April 12, 2005
Why doesn’t Apple show its patented Mac OS X ‘Genie Effect’ in TV ads? – October 07, 2004
Top Ten things Apple needs to show the world about Macintosh – July 30, 2003

43 Comments

  1. I can’t help but think that maybe Apple doesn’t want to grow its base by such a huge margin! Sudden spikes in growth are very unhealthy, especially for a company that manufactures physical products (unlike just software or services). Yeah, it would be great if all those Windows Grannies out there threw out their Del Taco PCs and switched, but would Apple be able to adjust to a suddenly higher demand? It seems to me they can’t keep up with current demand.

    Everyone is obsessed with market share, and I keep saying “F-ck market share.” What’s important is that a company shows profit and stable, consistent growth. Apple is doing that. We have our macs, the doofuses don’t, and all is well with the world.

  2. I still think Apple is waiting for something. Perhaps some final piece of the puzzle, or some last stumbling block before taking on the Redmond giant in a slugfest. Maybe it’s the Intel Mac, or maybe it’s some iLife Apps just in case MS pulls the plug on Office.

    <shrug>

    It’s the only answer that makes sense to me.

  3. Demand can have downside if you’re not prepared. Let’s not forget the past.

    From apple-history.com:
    “Apple’s worst problem wasn’t selling computers–it was building them. By June 1995 Apple had $1 billion dollars in backorders–and did not have the parts to build them. Apple’s problems were added to by the late-summer release of Windows ’95, which mimicked the Mac GUI better than ever.

    Apple took its worst plunge ever in the winter of 1995-96. Misjudging the market, Apple pushed low-cost Performas over mid-range PowerMacs, and failed to make a profit at all. Apple posted a $68 million loss for that quarter. In January 1996, Spindler was asked to resign as CEO and was replaced by Gil Amelio, the former president of National Semiconductor.”

    Spindler had evidently missed the classes on forecasting in business school.

  4. i think Apple could keep up with demand. they only make what they need now, i don’t think they’re short on parts or anything. if dell makes their money in volume, then Apple should do what it can to sell more units. dell can crank out PC’s, apple could too. it’s really a shame that iPod ads really sold the iPod, but mac ads, when you can find ’em, don’t tell you what the heck you’re looking at.

  5. Apple needs to tell people via television (where you can still reach those who have no idea of Mac OS X) that Apple’s already done it long ago and has it available today. We hope they start soon. It would be criminal to continue to keep the story of the Mac from the average consumer. We firmly believe that short 5-10 minute video explaining what Mac OS X can do the the average personal computer users should be shipped on every video-capable iPod sold. Why this isn’t currently the case is baffling. Apple is squandering a huge opportunity to inform Windows iPod owners about Mac OS X. Apple doesn’t even need to Think Different to do such a thing, they just need to think.

    Problem is Apple did advertise for the PowerMac G5 and demand was so great that IBM was unable to keep up with demand.

    Apple has always had a problem with supply, except in the case of the iPod where they made dam sure to suck up all the parts way in advance.

    Now switching to Intel chips Apple will no longer be restrained, because for every Mac sold would mean one less PC sold as they both will be using the same processors.

    No more supply problems, so really expect Apple to pull out all the stops next year.

    TV advertising, radio etc. One linch-pin of course is compatibility with Office on Windows. M$ could hobble OfficeMac, but then Apple could retaliate and come out with thier own version and better compatability with M$ files.

    I suspect this is being worked on at the moment.

  6. it is damn criminal, I actually can’t beleive that Apple isn’t advertising more. It’s such an obvious mistake. I often think steve jobs has a bet with bill gates that he will win the os war without advertising.

    I mean they’re opening a lot of quality stores to get exposure. thats what advertising is. so its not that they dont want more market share. that is a ludicrous statement. Jobs wants to beat the nerd from redmond make no mistake about that.

    but they basically do not advertise on tv for the mac.
    i saw maybe 2 commercials featuring macs last year.

    its the one thing i cannot fathom with Apple.

  7. The reality is, the windows masses are wholly ignorant of Mac, and will drool like starving dogs over Vista’s semi-plagarized ersatz eye-candy. This is why SJ refers to 5% market share as a “glass ceiling.”

    Apple is into innovationg, making great products and services, and making loadsa dough on all aspects of its business. Worrying about the dominant OS is so 1992–it’s yesterday’s war. Apple lost it, and has moved on. Get over it.

  8. Mac ads are awaiting MacTels. That will be the best timing:
    1) Intel chips will eliminate the GHz myth (which is still widespread)
    2) MacTels will permit the use of nearly unlimited industry-standard parts to handle demand
    3) MacTels will (hopefully) provide switchers a “security blanket” in that they’ll be able to run Windows
    4) The iPod phenomenon has created an opportunity of millions if Winblows users who will be open to another pitch from Apple
    5) Vista is late to market, while Tiger TODAY does much of what Vista promises it may eventually do
    QED–Perfect timing.

  9. Ampar is correct.

    I worked for Apple in the 90’s when Apple had US manufacturing. I was there at the tail end of Scully, had 2 years of Spindler and eventually got sacked by Amelio. Parts shortages were also common with the ASICS on the PPC motherboards. Not only could Apple not keep up but engineering was going in all kinds of different directions which hurt big time. I would like to see Apple grow but not too fast. A controlled burn…yeah, that’s it.

  10. Have no fear everyone, the masterplan will be in play a few days from now. Steve and company knows why they did not advertise OS X up until now. There is no way a group of such talented people would not think about advertising at all. They are just waiting for the right moment just like with the iPod with video. It had good timing.

    Now, all that said. I rather have a rock solid OS and good innovation over market share anyday as long as Apple is profitable.

  11. Maybe Apple should give away DVDs of your suggested video – just like AOL, EarthLink, etc. does with their software CDs.

    Over the holidays I noticed many stores – drugstores, grocery, etc. – selling iTunes gift cards. Through some of the DVDs in with the iTunes cards and get retailers to have them out. Or do whatever AOL, EarthLink, etc. are doing.

    FREE is always a powerful inducement.

  12. MacDailyNews..

    .. on the one hand, a great idea, seriously! Good thinking! I wouldn’t have thought about that at all and I loved the idea immediately!

    … but then, on the other hand.. do we need that? Are we (speaking as Apple) so needy that we need to show “look, look, we are better, look!”? What does that say about us?

    It’s a simple thing. Is Porsche running TV spots? Apple should keep being simply amazing. Their PC business is showing consitent growth and a profit. That’s enough. Keep it running like this and the bomb *will* drop. On it’s own. Like the iPod before, the iMac will one day spin heads and drive the world to madness. Soon.

  13. Are we all naive enough to presume that if a) Apple advertises, and b) they can keep up with demand, that the consumers will rush out and buy a Mac?

    I really doubt that, at least in the short term.

    Apple has a major pricing perception problem. I think this is their most severe issue which needs to be tackled. The second severe issue is the perception of the lack of compatibility with software/hardware products.

    Most people believe Apple’s computers are simply too expensive; they don’t want or need Firewire ports, or separate graphics cards for their video (unless they play games), or want to pay for reasonable quality…. they just want to buy a computer for the cheapest possible price because it’s only going to last 2 years. The list of “why nots” when buying a Mac is very long and most of the time revolves around the money issue in one way or another.

    The compatibility issue is a myth (FUD?) perpetrated by PC vendors and has become so ingrained it’s hard to turn it around. Also remember that 20 years ago, Apple’s products were very different and weren’t compatible with most PC hardware (evidently Apple saw the light, or the writing on the wall, take your pick.)

    However, since about the mid 90s, Apple’s machines have used fairly standard PC components (memory, disk, video etc.), so it’s fairly easy to buy Mac components from PC vendors (although this has required some research on the net first – to ensure that DVD burner x will work on a Mac, or that memory chip vendor y makes chips which are to the appropriate engineering specs Apple adheres to.) With the move to Intel, it’ll become one of software driver support more than anything.

    The software issue is also generally easily sorted – most have file format compatibility across the Mac & PC. However, I don’t believe people realize this is the case, which is why Apple is overlooked and it’s thus easy to say “They’re too expensive. Oh, and besides, I can’t run my existing software on the machine” (which is often pirated in the case of home users, but that works both ways… it’s just you have to go to some effort to pirate Mac software since the neighbor likely hasn’t got a Mac. Maybe they haven’t yet heard of a little thing called the Internet?)

    At least these are the two issues I hear about the most often. I don’t really hear “I can’t get one coz of supply issues” or “Apple? Aren’t they out of business? I haven’t seen them advertise a Mac recently.”

  14. The sky is falling. I totally agree with MDN about a video on the iPod. Take a look at the videos available at the Ruby on Rails site. That video alone has sent Ruby on Rails skyrocketing in popularity as a web framework. I think something similar on the iPod or even on Apple’s site would have a similar effect.

  15. I don’t what everyone finds so dang mystifying. Apple doesn’t advertise Mac OS X because Steve Jobs doesn’t think it’s worth it. If you’ll remember, they advertised quite a bit during his exile.

    Jobs’ preferred method of marketing Mac OS X is to build hip retail stores, stock them with iPods to attract customers, and let them try the OS. It seems to be working, albeit not as fast as some on this board would like.

    And I really doubt there will be much excitement among consumers about Vista, any more than XP generated excitement. People will stick with what they have until they buy a new PC, same as always.

  16. the faithfull will refrain from criticising Local Leader Steve J’s marketing plans. HE knows the exact moment when the evil troll of redmond will be rendered irrelevant. be patient.

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