Analyst predicts Apple-branded ‘iPhone’ with iTunes and terabyte iPod within five years

“Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray maintained an ‘outperform’ rating on Apple Computer and raised his price target on the company in anticipation of continued iPod and Mac innovations and a possible “iPhone” in the next 12 to 18 months,” Maya Roney reports for Forbes. “Munster expects Apple to enhance media center features in Macs, and incorporate its recently released Front Row technology into the Mac Mini. Munster also predicted the launch of an Apple-branded ‘iPhone’ with iTunes capabilites, and, five years down the line, a terabyte iPod that will offer massive storage and wireless capabilities and become a ‘portable coffee-table media center.'” He raised the price target to $68 from $60.

Full article here.

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Apple iPod division head: iPod and mobile phones best left separate – September 27, 2005
If Apple isn’t working on their own iPhone, they’re making a stupid mistake – September 12, 2005
Does Apple need a mobile phone of its own design? – September 09, 2005
Perpendicular hard drives pave the way for 80GB and larger Apple iPods – August 16, 2005

25 Comments

  1. Terabyte iPod in 5 years is just plain silly.

    We MIGHT have terabyte laptops in 5 years using 2.5 inch drives.

    We will not have sub one inch drives in the terabyte range in five years. That would take a HUGE breakthrough in hard drive technology. A terabyte of flash memory is even further away — at least in any way an average person could afford.

    MW: far… as in this scale of hard drive or memory is FAR into the future (maybe 10 years)

  2. These far-off predictions are always laughable. Just like Bill Gates, the predictor sounds as though he is “forward thinking”, etc. because they dare to predict the unthinkable well in advance.

    No one ever goes back and looks at those predictions and says, “Gee Bill, you predicted that by 2005 that computers would no longer come equipped with keyboards because everyone would be using speech recognition.” So, these predictions are all worth…nothing!

    In 5 years, come back to this story and see if the analyst is even employed anymore. I *predict* that he’ll be working at Burger King.

  3. Re: Terabyte iPod

    “Whaddya have on that there tPod?”

    “Not much really. Let’s see. I’ve got Pi to 51,539,600,000 digits, every volume from the Library of Congress, my genetic code, a map of every star ever indexed, the IMDB along with a copy of every movie, and, hmmm, oh yeah, a couple hundred tunes when I want to chill out.”

    ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”LOL” style=”border:0;” />

  4. The switch to perpendicular technology will certainly allow Apple and others to pack some serious capacity into portable devices in the future, even based on the 1.8″ mechanism.

    I seem to remember that when I first read about perpendicular, they were saying that it was good for an order of magnitude over longitudinal technology, which would mean a 600GB iPod without a stretch.

    Even if they get to half of that, 300GB would be more than enough for most people given that the battery is going to want to be connected to the mothership after about four-six hours of constant use.

  5. Terabyte! Wow, if that’ll be in an iPod form factor within five years . . .

    can you imagine the capacity Spock’s tricorder must’ve had???

    ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”cool smirk” style=”border:0;” />

  6. Macbones: no. In 2000 the largest drives available were in the 80-100 GB range. The largest drives available today (in a desktop form factor) are 500 GB. (You can buy 1 TB in a single enclosure, but it’s really two drives as in a RAID configuration.) The industry has been stuck at 500 GB for almost two years.

    MCCR: Perpendicular recording methods are barely showing up. This technology will take a while to mature. Similar types of technologies over the past decade have often taken five years or more to move from the first commercial implementation to being the pervasive standard.

    The extrapolation from laboratory experiments indicates that once the technology matures it MIGHT be able to allow an increase in areal density of data by as much as a factor of ten. I believe this is an optimistic view. In theory, once the technology matures an iPod might be able to have a 600 GB hard drive in it. However, this is taking an extremely optimistic view. I prefer to be more pragmatic.

    Brian Allen: Hard drives do not follow Moore’s law (even in its often mistated form). Yet if the hard drive industry did follow the mistated Moore’s law of doubling every 18 months…
    Extrapolating from what’s shipping in iPods…
    H2 2005 -> 60 GB
    H1 2007 -> 120 GB
    H2 2008 -> 240 GB
    H1 2010 -> 480 GB
    Deadline H2 2010 (in five years) still at 480 GB. Therefore deadline missed.

    Yet, let’s optimistically base it on “announced” products…
    H2 2005 -> 80 GB
    H1 2007 -> 160 GB
    H2 2008 -> 320 GB
    H1 2010 -> 640 GB
    Deadline H2 2010 still at 640 GB. Therefore deadline still missed.

    Hard drives have not increased at the rate of doubling in capacity every 18 months over the past five years. I don’t expect them to do that over the next five years either.

    Do I hope I’m wrong? Definitely.

    I am currently doing the initial concept design for a massive SAN which will ingest over 21 terabytes a day, every day. Even keeping just two weeks worth of data online in hard drives (then spooling it off to robotic tape systems for longer term storage) will require over 330 terabytes of data (once parity bits are added) in hard drive space. Right now the design is based upon one terabyte drives being readily available for a reasonable cost within two years from now. That’s an array of 330+ drives. I’d love to see 4 or 8 terabyte hard drives for a reasonable cost within 5 years time. I’m just not counting on it.

  7. I just hope that in 5 years time, talking on your iPhone while flying your rocket car is banned! For christ sake’s I’m sitting on 50 gallons of Hydrazine here, watch where you are going!

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