Analyst: Apple’s Mac market share could ‘double within a decade’

Windows PC users are converting to Macintosh computers in growing numbers, thanks in part to the stunning success of the Apple iPod, Sam Gustin reports for The New York Post.

“Over the last several years, Mac sales growth has been largely stagnant, while the overall personal computer market has grown, causing Apple’s market share to shrink,” Gustin reports. “But over the last several quarters, as Apple has wowed the market with new iPods, Mac sales have jumped, reaching 48 percent year-over-year growth in the latest quarter.”

Gustin reports, “If Mac shipments continue to grow as the iPod lures increasing numbers of Windows users, Wolf believes that Apple’s PC market share could double from 2 percent to 4 percent within a decade. Other factors helping to propel Mac sales, include increased anxiety over security vulnerabilities in Windows machines, which have been afflicted by ever-more sophisticated and damaging Internet viruses. Apple’s next big announcement is expected to be the rollout of the first Mac computers using processors made by Intel, whose chips already power many Windows machines. That could lead to Apple desktops that can run both Mac and Windows operating systems, opening vast new markets to Apple. ‘Apple is only in the early stages of its assault on the digital living room,’ said UBS analyst Benjamin A. Reitzes.”

Full article here.

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As of last quarter, Apple has about 2.2 – 2.5% worldwide market share, depending on which numbers you use. Mac’s installed base, which is a measure of computers in use by people who buy software to use on them, not cash registers and the like, actually stands somewhere around 16%, according to The Software Publishers Association (SPA) estimate. In addition, Macintosh software comprises over 18% of all software sold, according to the Software and Information Industry Association.

Related articles:
16-percent of computer users are unaffected by viruses, malware because they use Apple Macs – June 15, 2005
Survey shows Apple Macs owned by nearly 10 percent of US small and medium-sized businesses – February 17, 2005
More people use Apple Macs than you think; 8-12 percent of homes use Macs – March 31, 2004
10 percent of computer users use a Mac; 3 percent is Mac’s approximate quarterly market share – February 10, 2004
Syracuse Post-Standard: 3 percent is a false stat; Mac holds ’10 to 12 percent of the market for PCs – August 27, 2003

17 Comments

  1. I wouldn’t be so quick to look down on PCs used as “Cash Registers and the like”…Remember that the Digital Hub strategy we are all rooting on for Apple is to replace Stereos and TVs with Macs…

    MDN word: range

  2. ANAL-ysts are at it again!

    They must use crystal balls for their predictions since even the baldly fictitious stats they use cannot be used to support their arguments. This idiot has given a ten year window for Apple to double its sales yet according the stats quoted Apple are already half way there. Of course, the guy can say that he was right if Apple does it in the next twelve months which is more likely.
    Too bad this guy has done no research into the longer usefulness period of Macs, into the software market, into the number of web hits generated by Macs. Research seems to be anathema to analysts these days.

  3. hammer

    My point exactly. If Apple carry on as they are, 4% will come much quicker than a decade away. The reasons?

    1) Macs are getting cheaper, and now cost the same as PCs (if not cheaper),
    2) Laptops are more visible than desktops. Wow, there’s more Mac users than you thought,
    3) Apple Stores,
    4) OSX is so far ahead of MS’s offerrings that even Paul Thurrott is noticing.

    MW “england”. Time to hide my IP address ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

  4. I think it’s going to become an exponential growth. The million converts this year will lead to double that next year and so on and so forth…
    Just in the past year, the mainstream media has started including facts about the stability and security of OS X in their reviews of the company that makes the iPod. When ‘longhorn’ is eventually released and Apple is releasing yet another groundbreaking update to OS X, the real head to head comparisons are going to be made and the OS war will be brought to the forefront like never before.
    The computer industry was in its infancy during the last major face-off between Apple and M$. Now, computer users are better educated and knowledgeable about what they want and need. Honestly, the internet wasn’t even a feature in either OS’s the last time there was a recognizable conflict between the two sides.
    Maybe in the next couple of years Linux will finally make enough inroads to be considered the “Green Party” in the OS battle for dominance!!

  5. With only 15 million OS-X users (as of last WWDC) it would not be hard to imagine them doubling their user base in three years or less. This will depend somewhat on what MS does and how the general economy evolves. Certainly high gas prices have eaten into disposable spending but people want their internet and are sick of MS OS problems.

    Personally, I’m looking for another good AAPL buy opportunity!

    MW: growing (growing Apple market share – growing MS discontent)

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