First Albany raises Apple target to $66, expects 9 million iPods next quarter

First Albany raised its target price on shares of Apple (AAPL) to $66 from $60, reflecting an upward revision of its 2006 earnings estimate.

The brokerage expects Apple to sell 9 million iPods “next quarter.” (It is unclear if they mean the Jan-Mar 2006 quarter or the current Oct-Dec 2005 quarter. We are seeking clarification.)

Apple shares today gained $1.90, or 3.2%, to close at a new all-time high of $61.85.

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24 Comments

  1. I just called a vendor of mine, and asked if he could give me a deal on a video iPod, which he said he could, and then proceeded to tell me that the back order number was at 2,275 – just from his work place. On top of that, he said that the back order number in the whole chain, which includes his business, plus Best Buy, Circuit city and others was at 50,000. :O

    He said it was more than likley that I would not get it before Christmas if I placed my order with him, but he wasn’t positive.

    I know if you goto an Apple Store, they’ll likely get them before anyone else though… Of course, you have to pay taxes that way too…

  2. Apple is debt free, has a market capitalization aproaching $50 billion, and has $9.95 in cash for every share outstanding.

    Since they don’t have any debt to pay off, and buying back stock with the cash seems very unlikely, I’d like to ask this question of MDN and its readers:

    What should Apple do with all that cash and company equity?

    I think buying Elgato (makers of EyeTV) is a good investment, better than Tivo anyway. But pehaps buying XM radio of a satelite (high bandwidth) music store is a better idea. Or Perhaps buying Apple Records and becoming a publishing company (though that may quickly remove the big publishing houses from iTMS).

    Your thoughts?

    MDN word: between

  3. JJ – is your vendor on crack? Christmas is seven weeks away. 50,000 is only .55% of the 9 million iPods projected to ship in the three month period…that’s 100,000 a day. Even if Apple shipped only 10,000 iPod videos per day, and there were ten channels like your friend’s it would take 50 days to fill his channel – and December 25 – November 3 = 52 days. So even with conservative numbers and a few days for shipping, I think you’ll be fine.

    MDN word: sense

  4. Nice job, fellas. When it gets to $68, will they raise their price target from $66 to $70? It’s like the weatherman who forecasts sun, looks out the window and sees rain, and says “It’s going to rain!”

    MW: ain’t. There ain’t no Video iPod. It’s just “iPod” folks.

  5. Me:

    Yeah, that’s true, but these were the video iPods I was refering to only, not the nano, nor the shuffle. He said he’d give me a call if he were to see any large quantity of them arrive… and I don’t believe him to be on crack, atleast not to my knowledge.

  6. I don’t know a lot about El gato, but my feel for them is that they’re good, but could be better. There’s no reason to buy them if what they do can be replicated and improved on without them.

    The cash will sit for a while. Then, when no one expects it… Steve will strike! ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”big surprise” style=”border:0;” />

  7. BTW the over-positive financial situation may be dangerous for Apple.

    When the company has no debt it is over exposed to a hostile take-over. I do not quite understand the mechanics but a raider may take a loan to facilitate the tender offer at say 200% of the current share price and once he gets into the Board he makes it merger into the company which has taken the above loan. So the target pays for its own take-over

  8. off topic of course……my wife and I are in the market for a new digital camera…canon of course….. Which model is a great camera, plus a descent video capture device? Does the Powershot G6 record video that is easily imported to imovie or final cut express?

    thanks, jarrett

    Don’t look for Apple to buy elgato, I think the play is on Wireless, like the firewire kind, and 802.11n. just my two cents…..plus back in 1998 I was the guy that predicted all the non-infrared wireless connectivity of keyboards, mice, printers and the like….not to mention the trap door on the rev c imacs to allow easy access to memory upgrade and the mezz slot…..offcourse then it was removed from the motherboard.

    sort, as in Apple doesn’t have to sort through much of the tech universe because they are creating it.

  9. Evgeny, thanks for the armchair analysis. That and a buck fifty will get me a medium Peet’s coffee in Beverly Hills.

    One issue with Apple’s corporate governance is the fact that sjobs has a poison pill. So, thanks for playing.

    Also, anyone looking for a target price from those First Albany jokers or anyone else is the real market loser. These analysts don’t know shiite and are just salesmen for their wares. Any marketplace such as AAPL that trades 23 Million shares a day is far more efficient than a bonehead analyst. If they were such brianiacs, they would be able to beat the S&P over the course of 10 years, which none of them are able to do. Warren Buffet can spot one or two inefficient pricing situations, but thats rare.

    So, take your speculation and make your bet. For at any given moment, someone is buying from someone who is bailing.

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