Analyst: Apple could ship over 37 million iPod units by end of 2005

“Piper Jaffray Senior Analyst Gene Munster maintained an ‘outperform’ rating and $60 price target on Apple Computer as sales increase and lead time decreases for the iPod nano,” Maya Roney reports for Forbes. ‘We expect the iPod to continue to be a foundation for growth in other parts of Apple’s business, and we expect that by the end of calendar 2005 more than 37 million iPods will have shipped, providing Apple with a greater scope of awareness for various products (‘halo’ effect),’ said Munster.”

Roney reports, “The number of Macintosh computers in Amazon’s Top 10 also increased to eight from seven, setting an all-time high since Munster began tracking the Top Sellers. ‘Apple’s domination in digital music is a critical piece to the story, but we do not believe the iPod is the only growth avenue for the company,’ said the analyst.”

Full article here.

[UPDATE: 10:45pm ET: Rewrote headline to state “by the end of 2005.”]

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Related articles:
UBS: Mac momentum continues building, Apple could sell 10 million iPods in holiday quarter – October 03, 2005
Citigroup raises Apple Computer share price target, expects 10 million iPod nanos sold in 2005 – September 26, 2005


  1. Anyone done the math (from the quarterly reports) of where Apple stands today? In other words, how many iPods to they have to ship this Chirstmas shopping season to make 37M for the year?

    MDN word: sort

  2. is anyone else sick of these predictions? Why don’t they just say that sales are expected to be strong and leave it at that. We all know they are pulling the specific numbers out of their asses. Why 37 million, why not 36 or 38?

    If Apple were to release sales estimates or target, that would be one thing … but that is clearly not the case here.

  3. Sounds like someone’s is running another “pump-and-dump” on AAPL again. Funny, it’s so soon after the last one.

    Anyway, I need to accumulate so whatever.

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  4. The headline is completely misleading and false. I am not here to bash Apple; on the contrary, I love apple products, the company and am long AAPL stock. But here is the math:

    In order for Apple to ship 37M ipods in 2005, they would have to ship 19M in this quarter alone. Of the various analysts reports out on Apple, the current estimates for this quarter are based on iPod unit shipments of 9M to 9.4M. This is consistent with what Gene Munster actually said:

    “..and we expect that by the end of calendar 2005 more than 37 million iPods will have shipped..”

    By the end of 2005, Apple will have shipped over 37M iPods in total since the iPod was first introduced in 2001. As of September 2005, Apple has shipped just over 28M iPods in total. So, shipping 9M more this quarter is how Munster got to the 37M.

    I believe the analysts are probably being a little conservative in their numbers and that the number will be higher than 9M iPods shipped this quarter. In the past 2 holiday quarters, Apple doubled their iPod shipments from the September to the December quarter. If they did so again, they would ship close to 13M iPods this quarter. That number is probably much too optimistic but 9M seems more than reasonable.

    In any case, that article should be re-issued with a corrected headline. The analyst was not unreasonable but the headline makes it seem like he might be.

    As the #1 global brand and one of the most innovative companies, I believe Apple should continue to have strong growth prospects for quite some time.

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