Ultimately Apple’s iPod is doomed to fail because it “only allows a very, very slim amount of participation by the outside world,” according to Dave Winer. Winer, described by PBS weekly online TV show NerdTV’s website, as the “Father of RSS and Web Logging,” talked about Apple’s iPod with the PBS’s Robert X. Cringeley in a portion of a rambling interview:
Be inclusive… Where it’s exclusive, you’re hurt – it’s not gonna work. That’s the Internet. And you might argue, actually, that that has always, even when we didn’t call what we were doing the Internet, that really was what we were doing. That was why the Apple II worked. That was why the Lisa did not work. That’s why the Mac worked, you know. That’s why ultimately the iPod is doomed. Because the iPod only allows a very, very slim amount of participation by the outside world. And, I guess it’s a temporary thing. The music industry needed that kind of – sort of control over it in order for them to let that thing do what it was doing. But, long-term, it doesn’t have a future in that way.
And I think part of it is the paranoia of the music industry, and part of it is that Steve Jobs really doesn’t like open platforms. And, ultimately, you know, he’s quite happy that – but something like the Archos that runs Linux, and it’s completely wide open. Supports – has Wi-Fi. It has every port known to man on it. That it’s not a – I mean nobody’s heard of it. Doesn’t matter. That’s the kind of product we’re gonna end up using, because it’s just – ’cause somebody’s gonna come up with killer app for all those – you know, whatever, anyway I’m rambling.
One of the things that’s like totally depressing about the iPod is all the car manufacturers that are building in iPod compatible ports there. That’s crazy, you know? USB, please, you know? I mean don’t do that. That’s so bad. – Dave Winer, October 11, 2005.
Winer also comments on Apple and CEO Steve Jobs:
Apple actually does work, okay? It’s the exception to the rule. It is the you sit at his feet and you receive the word of God. Okay. I personally can’t stomach that. I cannot sit in a goddamn room with Steve Jobs doing that. I wanna puke, you know?
It grosses me out, but there are a lot of people who like it, and his art is impeccable. I mean I did finally break down and buy a Mac, and I got it, and I like it. Hey, it’s a nice computer. It feels good. It’s – I like my Sony VAIO, too, but the Mac’s a good computer. He breaks the rule, and he gets away with it. But nobody else does.
There really shouldn’t even be one. Well, you see, his fatal flaw is the iPod, right? And the iPod’s wonderful. It’s breaking the market in every – it’s breaking it wide open. But it’s breaking it wide open for somebody else, because he’s playing the damn game the same way he always does. He can’t get spread out far enough to actually be the guy who continues to run it later. He’s doing it again.
He probably knows he’s doing it, okay. And he’s certainly cleaning up. And we’ll pay attention to whatever he comes out with next. That’s for sure. And it probably will be great, so, you know, but that’s his fatal flaw. But it’s probably one that he factors in. Jobs factors in, probably.
Full transcript here.
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Why is it totally depressing that all the car makers are building in iPod compatible ports, Dave? Because it shoots your argument that “iPod is exclusive” all to hell? Archos? Is that a joke? If not, give us a break. It’s an iPod world, Dave. Get used to it.
You have to expect this type of “expert” to be all about ultimate “openness.” Too bad it’s at the expense of common sense here. Winer is flat wrong about the iPod. The iPod+iTunes is the only cross-platform (Mac and Windows) solution, for one example of inclusiveness. It’s the Windows-only Napster, Yahoo, MSN-type outfits that practice exclusion.
Probable reason for Winer’s comments? Apple blasted by RSS community leaders for ‘proprietary’ iTunes Podcast implementation – July 05, 2005
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Apple’s vs. Microsoft’s music DRM: whose solution supports more users? – August 17, 2005
Apple’s roadkill whine in unison: ‘incompatibility is slowing growth of digital music’ – August 13, 2005
Apple’s new iMac G5, iTunes 6, iPod video designed to bait Hollywood – October 13, 2005
Apple video iPod+iTunes could create mass audience for video on the go, despite studios’ misgivings – October 13, 2005
Watching episode of ABC’s ‘Lost’ on 2.5-inch iPod screen surprisingly compelling – October 13, 2005
Analyst: Apple has just produced ‘the tipping point’ for entertainment content – October 13, 2005
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Analyst: Unlike Microsoft, Apple has the advantage by not licensing their technology – October 13, 2005
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In response to the comment about the iPod not being inclusive: If you re-read the Cluetrain Manifesto, he has a point there. However, I think WiFi and communication is next year’s iPod innovation. This year it is video. That may be market driven, but it is what it is. I personally thinkg iPods linked with the internet and with each other would be fantastic and very much a participatory technology born out of the internet. It’s hard to wait for it patiently, but at least we can listen to and watch podcasts and v-casts on the go, which this guy totally misses on.
MDN MW: Still, as in still waiting for WiFi iPods
The iPod supports formats that are open standards … ie. AAC … and now, MPEG4 and H.264 … the competitors support Windows formats which are NOT open … as someone on another forum once said … ‘cry me an iRiver’.
Ultimately VHS was doomed because it didn’t play Beta, 3/4″ and 16mm film then, too.
I mean, ultimately VHS was doomed, because something better came along, after people sold billions of dollars worth of VHS stuff. I’ll be surprised if there are still iPods in the year 2025, because for one thing I think putting an “i” in front of a product name will seem as old-fashioned as calling it “Jet” something or “Astro” something, but Apple will have made billions, and come up themselves with the thing that killed the iPod, in the meantime.
Ultimately we’re all doomed, except maybe Angelina Jolie, who seems to be made of something alien and indestructible.
Dave’s last name is appropriate. . . .what a whiner
Sony has been “EXCLUSIVE” or proprietary for years. I guess they won’t make it either. After all, everyone knows about SD memory….. and what is it that Sony uses in all their products??? something called “memory stick”??
RIP Dave “WHINER”……
wow.. this guy’s a genius.. so well spoken..
what was his point? He hates the fact that SJ gets away with.. um.. being a jerk? Or something?
Wow.. nice little detour on what was, i’m sure, an otherwise interesting interview.
yes, Interview. Cringely was trying to interview the guy and he went on a ‘damn why is Apple still in business’ rant.
You like the Mac as much as your Windows-strapped VAIO.. wow.. Let me save you the suspense.. Steve ain’t gonna put that in his next Keynote..
This guy is an idiot. The iPod isn’t really that closed when you think about it. I mean I’ve been putting songs from EMusic.com on my iPod for over a year. All it really means is that it’s closed to anyone who wants to put an alternative DRM scheme on, which EMusic doesnt do. They are just MP3’s.
So his closed argument doesnt hold water.
And to DEAR MELANIE, im not too happy about our current leader either, but this isn’t a political forum. Keep it off here.
“VERY PC person I know feel it’s their right to steal.”
That’s because the same mindest (read: ignorant) that leads them to believe the PC rules, is the same one that doesn’t allow them to get a decent enough job to actually afford stuff, so they steal it.
Man, are these MS bubble heads running scared or what?
Their only product is iFud!
MW: Call As in: Call it like you see it!!
I don’t think the apple system is closed at all. Even though (as a music label executive i believe) that the music price points need to be raised…. but oh well thats an old argument for another time…
I think Apple should expand their “openness” into a prepay service for both music and movies. I would rather prepay at most 10 bucks a month (on average) to watch a certain number of downloaded/streamed episodes/songs of my favourite stuff. And If i wanted to buy an episode/song which i really liked I could aswell for a fee.
Hollywood like the music industry would prefer a continous flow of money from a customer (via a subscription service or a prepay service) rather than have a customer come in buy 1 episode and run the risk of lossing that customer. Sure one can lose customers anyway but by having a price point that starts at a prepay minimum of 6 bucks for example (which can cover 3 episodes or 6 songs) appears to be a less risky option.
The reason why I say this is becasue well, this methodology is still new, if big businesses can be assured of a somewhat less risky move such as the one I suggested then I believe Apple can fly even higher, with more networks joining in.
If my memory serves me right didn’t apple hire someone who worked for either Yahoo or Napster to establish their subscription services.??? Perhaps I am indicating the obvious..
MW Program: as in get with the program, Apple is introducing new ways to enjoy media.. There are lots of old people running both the music and movie industry.. its going to take alot of time and bickering..
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You people are clueless. Just because the Archos uses Linux for its OS doesn’t mean its hard to use. Thats crazy. Its got an interface just like the iPod does. Do you even know what OS runs the iPod? Didn’t think so. It doesn’t matter. I know someone that has one. Its a pretty nice device. What holds it back? Simple, it doesn’t work with iTMS. If iTunes never came out for Windows, the iPod would never have taken off. But what happens if the RIAA pulls the plug on iTunes? Watch sales to drop fast on iPods.
His argument is that open systems eventually win out. He also credits Apple for being the exception to the rule. A product like the iPod shouldn’t succeed because its closed, but it is succeeding because Apple has continued to be innovative. But now that its got audio, photos, and video what’s left?
The iPod has succeeded because of one thing. iTunes Music Store. Thats the real winner. And for it to stay successful, it needs one thing, DRM. This allowed it to get the RIAA. But the problem I have with DRM is that its a vendor lock-in. Its not about protecting the content. Its about preventing you from shopping elsewhere. The only alternative is DRM-free but until there is a website with big name artists who support DRM-free music, iTMS has no competition.
Its amazing how similar the iTMS/iPod is to OS X/Apple Computers. Apple claims to be a hardware company, but its actually software that drives people to buy their hardware. Without their great software, there wouldn’t be a need for their hardware.
He does have one point though …
“Because the iPod only allows a very, very slim amount of participation by the outside world.”
Sure, everyone can get an iPod … but what about the Music Store. The features offered are really nice, but can anyone in Australia get it? No. What about other countries? No.
I know … I know … it’s the Record Companies fault … but if Apple don’t get a move on and get their product out to other countries, then people will start to look elsewhere. Also, with the release of the Video iPod, why not “jump start” the iTMS with TV in the non-iTMS countries? This could help with getting the record comapnies on-board (just a thought … not much in it really).
C’mon Apple … give us iTMS. We’ve been waiting long enough.
AJ
Apple’s media devices are nothing, repeat NOTHING in the long-term without legitimate, paid-for, legal content.
I agree with the above, PC-users tend to think it is their ‘right’ to steal other people’s content.
What Apple understands is that yes, some media owners, (record industry in particular) are charging too much for content – THIS IS WRONG. They also understand that downloading illegally from torrent sites IS ALSO WRONG. Geeks like Dave want exclusive rights to other peoples intellectual property, consumers (like myself) don’t mind paying if the price is ‘fair’, (as in ‘Fairplay’).
Fairplay is the middle ground and the only DRM that will work in the long-term.
Dave Winer? Ignore him, he’s a dinosaur, stuck in the ‘Why pay when I can torrent?’ age.
Embrace the future Dave, consumers users of computers outnumber people like you now. The internet (and computer technology in general) doesn’t belong to the geeks anymore, it belongs to ‘the rest of us’. Remember that phrase Dave? The one that really p*ssed you all off in 1984?
MDNMW: personal, as in nothing personal Dave, but your time has come, and gone.
I have no idea what this guy is trying to stay. He can’t make a coherent thought if he tried…
… and global warming is BS. Scaremonger. It’s called WEATHER – you may have heard of it?
Winer was a Mac developer way back when. If I recall, the Frontier scripting environment and More, the first commercially successful outliner on the Mac, were two of his. He was a passionate Mac person.
And then he got pissed at Jobs and has been dissing Apple since.
that guys a fag…
and aj.. plenty of other countries offer itunes music store..
If my memory serves me right didn’t apple hire someone who worked for either Yahoo or Napster to establish their subscription services.??? Perhaps I am indicating the obvious..
—
Yeah, they brought in a consultant from Napster..
pffft..
please.
Listen to yourself… asking the public about a service that is unannounced and non-existent?
What?!
By propping up Podcasting, Apple can put off any subscription development.. free radio, video, etc content through podcasting..
Nobody’s thinking about subscription, especially not the guys that.. let’s face it.. own the market for digital music.
I can still remember the days when Winer gave his stuff away, now he charges for it and it ain’t that great. Totally early 90s in everyway.
Thanks, Dave for your wonderful contributions to the technology arena. Now, just because you’re in that arena doesn’t mean you’re an expert. Keep working on Manilla, stay focused on your weaknesses…
is his name pronounced whiner or weener?
Hey let’s give Dave Winer a break, he’s been in the industry for over 30 years and he been around the block a time or two. He understands true open source and what it means when something isn’t. Yes, the ipod is basically the only game in town when it comes to mp3 players — Apple controls it all. Great right? Maybe not if you’re an accessory partner and Apple commands 10% of your revenue. What do you do, other then succumb to Apple’s draconian demands (this is very Microsoft, by the way.) This is how a great idea breaks down after time; “the road to hell is paved with good intentions”. Sometimes when analyze an opposite view, you see things you normally pass over. It’s called enlighten.
And while we’re on topic: Why does MDN attack everyone and anyone that has a different opinion other than “Apple is the best, it can never do any wrong”? It’s always “your with us or against us”. It’s really tiring. We have an administration in office that does this, why does this “your thoughts don’t agree with mine, so your wrong” thinking have to extend here? Where’s the free exchange of ideas; thinking differently… Either MDN’s editors are very young (many of their takes come off as juvenile), or they work for Apple’s PR dept.
duh … your name say’s it all.
I know that iTMS is in other countries you dolt … I guess it’s difficult for you to understand. The only way would be for Apple to release something to the rest of the world, and not the US.
All Mac users want is the complete Mac experience. We aren’t getting it. We pay the same (if not more) four our Mac’s, but we get less than half of what is offered.
Most analysts make some kind of sense, even if it is nonsense. But I can bearly understand a damn thing this guy says. You don’t need to read much of it to know this guy is sucking slough water.
one last comment – without even reading the above comments.
how can anyone take him seriously? his grammar is atrocious! my 5 year old daughter writes better then this idiot. and yes – i purposely do not use caps. his biggest offense is inserting questions every other sentence. it gave me a headache reading the first seven lines – i had to stop reading.
Well, during both last August and last June, Mr. Winer also asserted that the iTMS would become publicly available as a function of Google, but that never happened .. so … heh
http://archive.scripting.com/2005/06/15#When:6:18:31PM
http://archive.scripting.com/2005/08/27
Here is where ‘The Whiner’ is wrong.
Windows succeeded, in the long run, because everyone had access to programs ‘borrowed’ from work and friends and games borrowed from or swapped with friends. As a result, everyone had legacy software to think about when they bought their next computer. They had to get a computer that supported their sources of software.
Look at the iPods. They are the only devices that will support your DRM’ed music. They support most P2P music. They support all of the ripped music a present iPod user has on his computer. Who is going to buy a rival brand and start his music collection over again from scratch?
Millions of iPod owners will not abandon the platform easily. Free music and video is available for the platform now. Dave won’t be able to show you a source that is cheaper than free. He won’t be able to show you a player that can play all of your legacy files.
Dave’s killer app will rip DVD’s to small, very portable, very playable movie files as easily as iTunes rips music CD’s. It will store those files in a database and access those files as easily as iTunes stores and accesses music files. It will serve those files on the internet for all to use just as P2P programs distribute MP3’s now.
Who, besides Apple, is capable of writing that killer app?
Who would risk the litigation by releasing such an app?