Piper expects Apple to sell 5 million iPod nano units in holiday quarter

“Piper Jaffray expects Apple Computer to top fiscal fourth-quarter (ended September) earnings estimates and to have a ‘very strong’ fiscal first quarter, in both Mac and iPod segments,” Ed Lin reports for Forbes. “Piper Jaffray raised the fiscal 2005 estimate to earnings of $1.44 per share on revenue of $14.013 billion, up from earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $13.904 billion. The firm raised Apple’s fiscal 2006 estimate to earnings of $1.65 per share on revenue of $16.805 billion, up from earnings of $1.48 per share on revenue of $15.655 billion. Piper Jaffray expects Apple to ship 858,000 iPod nano units in the fourth quarter and 5 million units in the first quarter.”

Full article here.
858,000 nanos in 4th quarter? Why is Piper’s number so inexact? Do they really think it will be 858,000 flat? Come on Piper, next time give us your real projected number, right down to the ones, no more rounding off!

Related articles:
UBS: Mac momentum continues building, Apple could sell 10 million iPods in holiday quarter – October 03, 2005
Citigroup raises Apple Computer share price target, expects 10 million iPod nanos sold in 2005 – September 26, 2005


  1. This has been a tricky time for AAPL holders – the stock gets very volitile before earnings – some people wanting to lock in earnings. Others wanting to get into AAPL before the next wave

    MDN word: freedom

  2. Piper is way off. My local TNT driver said to me when he delivered my Nano that they had delivered 8000 Nano`s in the Oslo area in the first 2 weeks after the launch. Apple Norway accounts for less than 1 % of Apple Inc`s sales. I would guess that Apple was able to sell more than 2 million Nano`s to enduser and into the channel in the first 4 weeks. Maybe as many as 3 million. If they sold 6 million in FY-Q3 – 3 million is not very far off what they actually needed to sell to continue to grow from q3 to q4. Looking forward to order an Airport Video express this coming wednesday ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

  3. Hello, people!

    Sorry to rain on the sarcasm parade, but as a matter of fact, Apple’s Q4 for is the July to September period. Piper is saying Apple will have sold 800K+ nanos in less than a month! And sometimes, these analysts have contacts at the actual factories or shipping firms so they can get any idea of how many units Apple can ship this quarter. You can estimate fairly exactly how many nanos a single ship container can hold.

    Apple’s Q1 is actually from the Oct to Dec period. So Piper is saying 5 million nanos the holiday quarter, and I imagine Apple will still sell a bunch of Shuffles and full-sized iPods, so Piper is saying that iPod sales THIS quarter will be north of 5 million. I would say that’s reasonable and all the better in fact, because it makes it easier for Apple to beat expectations.

  4. Bottom line is that Piper probably expects Apple to move a total of 7 to 10 million iPods this quarter, based on the estimate of 5 million nanos. That is perfectly reasonable. The last thing we want as investors (something the editors of MDN should seriously get a clue on) is for all these analysts coming out and giving wild estimates like “12 million iPods this quarter!” or “15 million or nothing!”

    There are plenty of example of idotic financial analysis when it comes to Apple, but guess what? It can go the other way. MDN, I love your site to death, but you guys sound like Patriot fans that think their team is going to blow out every other time 50-0 during the season. Apple, like the Patriots, have shown to be the best, but let’s try to support mild, reasonable analysts instead of deriding them for not sandbagging Apple with hard-to-beat expectations.

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