“Windows Vista is the biggest release for Microsoft since Windows 95. With that release, Apple was tested — and they failed miserably. I was at Dataquest at the time and not only did I warn Apple to take 95 more seriously, I also accurately forecast the massive decline that would happen to them if they didn’t do just that,” Rob Enderle writes for TechNewsWorld. “This was in 1994, after Steve Jobs had been fired from Apple. Of course, he is back now. Apple is again growing with the market and, unlike 1994, is dominant in an emerging market — digital music players.”
MacDailyNews Note: Apple is not “again growing with the market.” Apple’s Mac unit sales are growing at more than double the overall industry rate.
Enderle continues, “The MS platform has changed dramatically… and it is much greater than just the operating system these days. Apple, on the other hand, hasn’t advanced nearly as much but they are predominantly consumer-based today and less vulnerable to this comparative weakness as a result. Apple will be positioning its Intel-compatible OS version against Vista and they have about 12 months to prepare for the threat. Just like the last time, they will largely leverage hardware this time, and, as before, they will be up against companies with resources that eclipse their own.”
Enderle writes, “Glass is the user interface enhancement that appears to improve on what Apple currently has with Tiger. Granted, Tiger is shipping and Vista isn’t, which gives Apple time to respond. Still, this is the closest to Apple’s capability we have ever seen from Microsoft and for those of us who simply cannot use Apple machines this will be very well received.”
“In 1995 Apple was nearly shut down by a product that wasn’t as visually exciting as Apple’s on hardware that was a pale image of what Apple had on the market. But Windows 95 had more application support and where it lagged Apple the vast majority of buyers found it to be good enough. For this round Vista in many ways is equal to or better than Tiger or more advanced, relatively speaking, than Windows 95 was during its beta period,” Enderle writes.
“As for hardware, unlike 1995, the hardware OEMs not only cover a broader range with companies like Voodoo and Alienware in the mix, but historically staid companies like Gateway, HP, Acer, and even Dell are much more aggressive on design today, often surpassing Apple, which was preeminent in this area in the 90s. While this design parity clearly hasn’t impacted the iPod market yet it is incredibly evident in the PC space,” Enderle writes. “Apple will have to improve its game sharply to compete. However, given the strength at the back end, strength that Apple has never had, the exposure now goes well beyond Apple’s available resources. This means Apple will have to partner to avoid what may be the most damaging competitive threat the company has ever faced. While possible, Apple’s one prevailing weakness has been their inability to partner and unless that changes we should be able to call the outcome of this competition relatively easily — and it isn’t positive for Apple… 2006, at least after August, will be great time for buyers and sellers of PC hardware and that has to be a good thing for everyone — except Apple.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Do you think Apple’s Mac platform “hasn’t advanced nearly as much” as Microsoft’s since 1995? If so, how much crack do you smoke each day? From what we’ve seen so far, does Windows Vista’s user interface really “appear to improve on what Apple currently has with Tiger and is Windows Vista really “in many ways equal to or better than Tiger?” If so, have you been hit in the head with an iMac G5 during an earthquake? And, why would Enderle’s statements even matter, as Apple has stated their intention to be shipping Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard on or around Vista’s debut? Do you think “Gateway, HP, Acer, and even Dell are much more aggressive on design today, often surpassing Apple?” If so, are you legally blind or institutionalized? Do you think “Apple will have to partner to avoid what may be the most damaging competitive threat the company has ever faced” within 12 months?
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple continues to grow worldwide Macintosh market share – July 25, 2005
Gartner: Apple grows shipments 31 percent in Q2 2005, moves from 5th to 4th in U.S. market share – July 18, 2005
IDC: Apple gains U.S. market share at double overall market rate, up to 4.5 percent for Q2 2005 – July 18, 2005
Microsoft’s Ballmer: It’s true, some of Windows Vista’s features are ‘kissing cousins’ to Mac OS X – September 19, 2005
PC World: Microsoft innovation – an oxymoron – September 15, 2005
Microsoft debuts Dashboard Widgets, er, ‘Microsoft Gadgets’ – September 13, 2005
Microsoft appropriates Apple’s ‘brushed metal’ look for Office 12 for Windows – September 13, 2005
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ ultimate goal: ‘to take back the computer business from Microsoft’ – June 16, 2005
Apple to unleash Leopard on Microsoft’s Windows Longhorn; Mac OS X 10.5 due late 2006 – early 2007 – June 07, 2005
Windows czar Allchin says Apple copying Microsoft’s Windows Longhorn – April 27, 2005
Microsoft employees leaving due to (and blogging about) malaise smothering company – April 25, 2005
eWEEK Editor Coursey: Longhorn so far ‘looks shockingly like a Macintosh’ – April 25, 2005
Due in late 2006, many of Windows Longhorn’s features have been in Mac OS X since 2001 – April 25, 2005
Microsoft’s new mantra: ‘It Just Works’ ripped straight from Apple’s ‘Switch’ campaign – April 22, 2005
Apple CEO Steve Jobs on Microsoft’s Longhorn: ‘They are shamelessly copying us’ – April 21, 2005
Microsoft’s Windows Longhorn will bear more than just a passing resemblance to Apple’s Mac OS X – April 15, 2005
Silicon Valley: Apple CEO Steve Jobs previews ‘Longhorn’ – June 29, 2004
Apple CEO Steve Jobs: Mac OS X Tiger ‘is going to drive the copycats crazy – June 28, 2004
Apple’s CEO Steve Jobs previews Mac OS X 10.4 ‘Tiger’ to ship in the first half of 2005 – June 28, 2004
Apple takes dead aim at Microsoft, ‘Longhorn’ with WWDC Mac OS X 10.4 ‘Tiger’ ads – June 28, 2004
PC Magazine: Microsoft ‘Longhorn’ preview shows ‘an Apple look’ – May 06, 2004
Microsoft concerned that Longhorn’s look and feel will be copied if revealed too soon – August 25, 2003
Windows ‘Longhorn’ to add translucent windows that ripple and shrink by 2005 – May 19, 2003
Apple leads; Wintel follows as usual – November 11, 2002
this is scary…
MDN did well to point out most of the glaring lies in this article…
Glass? GLASS??
MS finally gets transparencies, (with 2gig of ram) overkills it with see through toolbars.. has a SHIT UI that basically brings the right click to the forefront (IE no UI at all)..
And Apple supposed to be taking notes?
Man, this guy is freakin’ insane…I mean.. I can’t imagine what it must be like to talk to this guy in person.. delusional?
Apple needs to let people know that the features (or bugs
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” /> ) that vista will bring are just ripoffs of old apple technology.
Advertise Mac OS X to the masses!
me – exactly right (except he is crazy, he just happened on a valid conclusion after a bunch of inane logical leaps).
Of course, I’m also sure Apple is more than aware of this, which is why I’m so excited about Leopard! Bring it on, Apple! Keep them Redmond boys sweating!! We need more OS diversity in this world!!!
Another dumb article from this guy. But lets face it, hes writing to his favorite audience; windows users and himself. And the article is listed under the right heading; ‘Opinions’, not facts, not technology, nothing to do with real technical journalism.
Research? Bah, humbug! Takes too long. I’ll attack Apple again and get some much needed feedback, my career is taking a nosedive. Flame me, I dare ya! I need those emails to get me back up my pedestal and again be worshipped as the ‘pundit’ that I am. I know I’m good.
Is this article truly all that anit-mac? I think he actually brings up some good points. The screen shots look to be pretty slick when compared to what windows has at this point. I know many windows people that will have the “wow” factor when they see some of the stuff in windows vista. Sure we have had it in OSX for 5 years but they don’t care about that. They will see the MS copy of aqua, dashboard, animations and be impressed. Once this comes to pass, the eye candy factor for switching to the mac will be severly diminished. Then, if by some miracle MS does manage to get its spyware, virus, and adware problem under control many won’t even give switching a second thought. I realize that is a lot of ifs but don’t count it out of the realm of possibility. I believe the authors point is that if Apple doesn’t do something to wow people and win them over before Longhorn comes out the opportunity might be lost. Honestly, I doubt MS can manage to pull it off but that doesn’t mean that Apple should sit by and do nothing. Steve needs to move Apple forward before MS even has an opportunity to catch up. I love my mac but we shouldn’t become so arrogant to think that no one can ever catch the mac.
After reading the comments it sounded as if some objectivity needed to be brought to people.
he hits the nail on the head for one thing… it comes awfully close to OS X… in that, Many current users of Windows who haven’t switched will say: “Vista is ‘Good enough’, and i don’t need to buy new software.”
That is the danger… Apple needs to take advantage of every moment before Vista hits mainstream… it’s actually a viable product… and they’ve learned a LOT from XP… Virus expanded and exploded after XP was made… they have likely learned and plugged all the holes.
—-
Well.. for ‘awfully close’ you need a pretty damn powerful PC.. so give credit to Apple for shipping a REAL PRODUCT, that has to be constrained by 2005 Mac specs. Oops, did I mention REALITY? My bad..
MS has likely filled all the holes? Are you joking? You just said it was ‘good enough’.. so why would they spend extra time fixing it?
You know what’s good enough? Windows 98.. that’s good enough..
What if Vista is 100% virus proof.. um.. the IT guys that hate Macs for the same reason won’t pick it up in the business community.. because Win 98 is just fine… you can’t have your cake and eat it too
I think the eye candy will be enough to get Consumer dollars, but for the enterprise market, it doesn’t make sense that they’ll be interested in a better product… what keeps iT guys in MS bedsheets? Job security through Windows insecurity.. you’ll hear alot of BS about ‘we don’t wanna jump in right away, bla bla bla’
I think this counts as another Death Knell … what do ya’ll think?
MDN Magic Word: Show … as in … let’s see a show of hands on that Knell!
Vista will come out just in time for the corporate I.T. departments to upgrade to XP. Does this guy really know what the real world does? Where I work the Mac users are still waiting for IT to upgrade their Outlook server so we don’t have to use “Classic” mode to read our e-mails. Does he think this place is going to jump to Vista? Fat chance.
The funniest part of this all is that even if everything falls perfectly into place for Microsoft with Vista, it still will only be comparable to Jaguar, and perhaps maybe even Panther (and that’s being VERY generous). The real problem for M$ though is that Panther was released in 2003, while Vista will be lucky to arrive by late 2006.
Wow – Side Show must be really fast.. I just open my Powerbook and it wakes from sleep in about a second and I can use an entire keyboard.. Not try to navigate some tiny screen in a laptop case..
“he hits the nail on the head for one thing… it comes awfully close to OS X… in that, Many current users of Windows who haven’t switched will say: “Vista is ‘Good enough’, and i don’t need to buy new software.””
Interesting thought and observation. What it misses is that, in order to actually RUN WindowsVista MOST PC owners will have to:
1. Upgrade (buy new) their hard wear … most of what’s out there right now won’t run it (or wont’ run it very well)
2. Upgrade almost all of their software so that it will work on it.
Vista may be “good enough” for many … I’m sure it will be … but it will be “yesterday’s” OS compared to Leopard … and something tells me that Apple will work hard to release Leopard BEFORE Vista comes out.
I DO agree that Apple needs to expend at least as much money on his Mac advertising as it does on advertising iPods … if not more.
MDN Magic Word: “next” … as in, “this time next year we’ll know a whole lot more than we do right now.
Bartender, I’ll have what Mr Enderle is having!
Enderle wears a neck brace because he had his head up MONKEY BOY’s ass while he was bouncing around like a lunatic on stage!!!! I think he just needs to loosen it up a bit and he might have a chance at sanity.
NOTE TO SELF: Stay at least 100 meters away from monkey boy orifices.
RevNeal, I agree on the Death Knell. It was the first thing I expected in the MDN take, but they must have been so overwhelmed by the absolute stupidity of so many of the suggestions.
As far as upgrading, most users only upgrade one way: buy a new computer. So for most PC users, it doesn’t matter that Vista requires the newest specs, that’s the only way they know to get a computer that runs well anyways (go buy a new one when the old one’s too bogged down to run).
I’m just dying to know what Apple’s working on with Leopard!!!!
What Apple must do is both get the Intel transition completed and have OS X Leopard released by the end of 2006. If they accomplish those two tasks AND launch an aggressive Mac advertising campaign, they can easily double their marketshare over today’s 4.5%. While that won’t pose an immediate threat to Microsoft’s monopoly, it would still put Apple in a definite position of power that they haven’t enjoyed since the mid 1980s.
“Apple’s Mac has about 12 months to prepare for Windows Vista threat”
What threat? They’re years behind in releasing their new OS and they’re coping parts of Apple’s OS X. Oh, by the way, great job MS in picking LongHorn for an initial name for your future OS. Naming it after an animal that is bread and raised for slaughter shows where their heads are at…up their @$$.
This new MS OS threat won’t even ship with several key technologies. These features will ship at a later date. And lets not forget MS’s new anti-virus and spyware subscription service that MS will offer its users. MS sells a defective product then chargers its customers solution that only treats the symptoms. The only threat will be to Windows users.
It’s the ‘End Times’ for the Mac. Or is that the ‘Enderle Times?’
MW-showed, as in –Enderle showed us a thing or two.
You can’t argue with a dumb person. I used to do that here at work. Now when one of these knobs tries to start it up I tell then that if someone is stupid enough to willingly use a Windows machine then they certainly are too stupid to “get” the Mac, so I’m not even going to bother with them. They shut up pretty fast. There are an awful lot of dumb people running networks. They want nothing to do with a Mac, even at home. Good!…I say…fu*kers.
I think we should thank Enderle for his analysis of Vista vs OSX. His rantings clearly underscore just how frightened Redmond is. Rather than delay that pile of crap any longer, they have opted to strip it of many key features that may have gained them parity with OSX.
As it is, Enderle has shown he is just another MSFT apologist, unable to seperate his paycheck for honest journalism.
‘Yeah, but my PC has 2 gig of RAM and a quad-core 3MHz processor and that’s just to run the operating system so it must be more powerful’.
Problem is that most people think the Mac is flash design and a flash UI and don’t appreciate that it is like a BMW or Audi – i.e. the engineering goes right through – thus why low-spec machines run rings round PCs.
A flashy GUI on Vista will be enough to make most people think Windows has caught up – especially if they’re not aware of things like the colour and font inspectors, spell checker, dictionary, being common tools on Apple, rather than different on every program.
However, there are some fundamentally interesting things in Vista – it does look like MS are ‘getting the message’, or more likely being changed by a generation of computer scientists who don’t have the same attachment to the MS way. There’s some tempting developer technologies in there
With Tiger really being mostly ‘under the hood’ I don’t see Leopard introducing many killer features – at the end of the day, it’s an OS/X update, not OS/XI. What I hope we will see is apps taking advantage of Tiger.
Still, I don’t see Vista threatening Apple – Google and Linux and Apple and web-over-TV boxes and everything else threatens Vista. Changing computer habits threaten MS (I’m very happy with my ‘Mac for computing, consoles for gaming’ set up).
I’ve been thinking lately that ‘Just Good Enough’ is actually the paradigm for a lot of software and how people use it. They don’t actually use things in a productive way – give them an automator and rather than learn how to use it, they will do the dumb thing over and over. (I do the same with programs I can’t be bothered to learn – like Excel). Rebooting a PC is what you do when it crashes.
What evidence is there that Microsot’s dog and pony shows even have real code behind them? I think they’re canned presentations. Considering the way its features keep shrinking, talking about what a threat Vista will be is sort of like talking about the supermodels I’m going to bang as soon as I drop 250 lbs. and move out of Mom’s house. Until there’s some underlying reality to ground the claims in, what’s the point?
Sadly I use XP on a business network behind a firewall. I came in expecting to do a month’s worth of “this is easier in OS X” stuff. Not even close. Most of what I can do in OS X can be duplicted in XP. That which can’t is usually a download away, such as Knofubulator for “Widgets”, and now M$ is adding Gadgets. Heck, it even has a show desktop button and you can put shortcuts for software in the taskbar similar to docking. As long as you are in a secure setting and someone else is running the firewall, it runs good enough for your average user to go home and say “Honey, let’s buy a PC like I have at work”, it’s not until he gets it home that he discovers the dark side of maintaining his PC. Unfortunately “close enough” is all they want.
Here’s to the crazy ones….. except Enderle.
I wonder what goes on behind the Redmond doors late at night. Maybe Bill is getting as tight lipped as Steve. Maybe all the talk about key technologies not making it into the next version of Windows is just smoke. Maybe everything is already built in and debugged. Maybe there are key developers sworn to secrecy and are already working on them. And maybe Vista will be the Apple killer that Enderle is talking about. Maybe he knows something and can’t contain his jubilation at what is going to happened when Vista finally emerges.
And maybe I just had some of what Enderle had, Bartender I’ve had enough!
For @#% sake it’s LOSING not LOOSING.
See it once, I assume typo, but now I see it all the time on these forums (at least once a day), therefore I assume people don’t know how to spell. Please learn and come back when you’re done. It’s basic English people. You’ve got dictionaries, use them.
And yes, I’m all fired up because this Enderle character is such a twit. It’s so !@#%ing easy for him to say Apple better shape up when they have a miniscule market share compared to Windows. He’ll be right, simply because its a numbers game…. just as he was “right” when he commented on Windows 95 back in 1994 (as it was a numbers game then too.) MS windows is great, until you use a Mac, but unfortunately, no one looks past the sticker price or the various other fallacies.
I’m not a one eyed Mac supporter (as they do have issues – Mac’s, not the supporters), but Windows is just an aggravation I don’t need. Vista will be no better, as usual, despite the $4 billion MS will spend marketing it (yes, that number was pulled out of my ass.)
ps who knows how many people are switching back TO the PC recently (i.e. since say Panther was released) compared to the other way. I’d love to see the stats.
pps the consumer (one presumes home) market is nothing to be sneezed at either, despite Enderle’s implication otherwise. I for one was grateful to come home to my Mac’s after slogging out on a Windows PC all day. PC’s are great for the office, they fit in well with most of the other “cheap as chips” products offices buy to save money. However, at home, I would prefer to have quality goods, and the Mac fits that perfectly.