Technology pundit Rob Enderle writes of the yawns being induced from IT types over Microsoft’s Windows Vista (née Longhorn) – probably partly because they were up every night last week applying patches to fix patches and cleaning spyware, adware, and assorted malware because, way back when, their companies were too cheap to buy real Macs, so they settled for poor imitations.
Enderle looks at two scenerios: if Windows Vista is a “dud” or a “killer” product. If it’s a dud, Enderle writes, “I honestly don’t see… Apple benefiting much from this failure unless they change dramatically… into a company that will listen and respond to business needs.” Enderle think that seems that’s “too unlikely to speculate on at this point” even though his statement just sits there like a lump of —- and isn’t explained a whit. The requirements to be a technology pundit these days are remarkably and disappointingly low, it would seem. Enderle does get one thing right when he pens, “One of the foundations for Windows’ success in the past has been a closely coupled Office product. But these days Office for the Mac is better coupled to Apple than Office is to Windows, so there is little help expected from that quarter.” Bravo, Rob.
Within Enderle’s even more vapid and incomprehensible “If Windows Vista is Killer Product” section (I defy anyone to tell me what the heck he’s trying to say in that section), he scribbles two sentences, “As demand for a new product goes up, demand for existing products goes down, which is part of the risk Apple took when pre-announcing the move to x86. Recent surveys indicate demand for Apple’s existing products is dropping like a rock as a result.”
That’s it. He just deposits it there and moves on. No supporting evidence, no sources, nothing – just like the contents of his earthquake-fearing gourd, I strongly suspect. Since Enderle, who’s clearly the reason for Apple’s “Do Not Eat iPod shuffle” disclaimer, offers no evidence of his “recent surveys,” I was forced to hunt for my own. This is what I found:
• Joe Wilcox, Jupiter Research: “I would be surprised if the [Intel] transition has any impact on Mac sales in the short term. In fact, the opposite might be the case.” (Analysts don’t see Apple’s Intel switch dimming ‘iPod Halo Effect’ – July 30, 2005)
• Robin Bloor, IT-Analysis: “If you are wondering whether Apple’s switch to Intel will put buyers off, the evidence at the moment seems to be: no… Of course, demand may diminish in the coming months, but I suspect that most buyers don’t care too much about it either way.” (Apple’s pending Intel switch not hurting PowerPC-based Mac sales – July 25, 2005)
• Piper Jaffray: “We expect continued market-share gains through the back-half of CY05, as Apple benefits from carryover from the massive installed base of iPods during the back-to-school and holiday seasons.” (Apple continues to grow worldwide Macintosh market share – July 25, 2005)
• IDC, Gartner: “IDC announced that Apple’s share of the U.S. personal computer market climbed to 4.5% in Q2 2005, up from Q1 2005’s 3.7%. Gartner yesterday said that Apple posted the highest growth rate among its peers as U.S. shipments grew 31%, helping it advance to No. 4 personal computer maker in the U.S.” (Apple Computer primed for continued market share gains – July 19, 2005)
• Red Herring: “Since Apple Computer disclosed last month it would start building its computers with Intel chips, the company’s hardware sales have apparently risen and will likely remain strong after the switch occurs, a report said Tuesday on the eve of Apple’s third-quarter earnings release. The latest ChangeWave Research report surveyed 1,809 senior technology and business executives. Interest in Apple desktops has also increased, according to the report, with 7 percent responding that they had purchased desktops in the past 90 days, versus 2 percent in March. The survey revealed that 19 percent of respondents were more likely to purchase an Apple computer in the future after the Intel announcement, as opposed to 3 percent who said they were less likely to do so.” (Report: Apple to benefit from Intel chip switch; Mac sales on the rise – July 13, 2005)
• Forbes, Cowen & Co.: “A comprehensive consumer survey by S.G. Cowen & Co. in June lays out a convincing case for a ‘halo’ effect for Apple Computer’s Macintosh computers. iPod owners with Windows computers were more than three times as likely to buy a Mac… S.G. Cowen expects Apple to snag 3.7% of the U.S. PC market by year’s end, up from about 3.3% currently. It expects its share to grow to 4.2% next year, and it believes that 6% is achievable by 2008. By then, analysts envision Mac revenue topping $11 billion and worldwide market share nearly doubling to 4%.” (Comprehensive survey shows ‘iPod Halo Effect’ is increasing Apple Mac sales, market share – July 12, 2005)
• RealMoney: “Apple increasingly looks like it is as good a short-term trade here as it is a long-term investment… pretty much every indicator and check that I can find confirms that the magnitude of the halo effect is quite profound, and that any impact that the [Intel] processor transition is going to have won’t affect that magnitude except on the extreme fringes. Indeed, I think Apple has cooked itself up a heckuva strong quarter yet again, and that it’s going to sail past the Street’s estimates and raise guidance going forward.” (RealMoney: Apple’s iPod Halo Effect ‘quite profound,’ Macs taking good market share from Wintel – June 27, 2005)
Enderle finishes up his mess with, “Based on my experience with large firms, however, success is actually the long shot. For me this really feels like a repeating theme: As companies increase in size it often becomes more important for those in power to get the final say than to be successful. I’ve watched large company after large company make incredibly obvious mistakes and I am frankly very concerned that we are seeing the beginnings of another one of those situations. Still, Microsoft has come through in the past and is clearly capable of coming though again. Because so many depend on its success I just hope Microsoft has one more success left in it.”
It seems that many technology pundits seem to depend on, and hope for, Microsoft’s success, too.
Full article here.
SteveJack is a long-time Macintosh user, web designer, multimedia producer and a regular contributor to the MacDailyNews Opinion section.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple smashes street with record revenue, earnings; shipped 6.155 million iPods – July 13, 2005
Apple beats The Street; posts net profit of $290 million on $3.24 billion revenue – April 13, 2005
Tech Pundit Enderle: ‘This year will be more difficult for Apple Computer’ – January 24, 2005