“Just how long can the iPod keep playing that upbeat tune? That is the question investors and analysts are pondering as Apple Computer prepares to report fiscal third-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday,” Scott Morrison writes for The Financial Times. “Triple-digit sales growth for Apple’s iconic digital music player sent the company’s share price soaring more than 200 per cent in 2004. But Apple rattled the market three months ago with guidance that was not quite optimistic enough.”
“Now, with Apple’s share price hovering about 16 per cent below its high earlier this year, Wall Street will be looking to Apple for signs that demand for the iPod will pick up going into the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons,” Morrison writes.
Morrison writes, “There are a number of indicators that suggest the digital music player market is cooling. Apple rival Creative Technology, the Singapore group, recently warned of lower-than-expected demand. Apple recently cut prices on two of its music player models, including the iPod, a move the company said would help it capture market share. Some observers believed the price cuts pointed to slowing demand. More telling, perhaps, is the fact that consumers can actually find iPods in stock at Apple retail stores a far cry from the waits that customers faced just a few months ago. Apple also now promises free same-day shipping for all iPods ordered on the internet.”
Morrison writes, “For the quarter just ended, most analysts estimate Apple will have sold 5.4m-5.5m units. That would be a huge increase from 860,000 units sold in the same period last year but only a slight gain on the 5.3m units sold in the second quarter.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The Street eats growth, not success. Obviously, Apple could sell 5.3-5.5 million iPods per quarter for the next twenty years and their share price will not be rewarded. Hey, their sales are stagnant! Hold.
If Creative Technology is Apple’s “rival,” Apple’s is great shape. Creative’s woes do not indicate problems at Apple, they’re caused by Apple. Apple gets reamed for not keeping up with demand and when they finally get the supply caught up, they get reamed for that, too. Consumers can actually find iPods in stock at Apple retail stores and buy them?! Apple lowered prices to sell more iPods?! Get the broker on the phone, “SELL! SELL! SELL!”
We love Wall Street. Remember, growth is the only thing that matters and, just like Krispy Kremes and RealNetworks honchos, once you give them some, the voracious Street wants double or triple the next time. Let’s see how they react to Apple’s financial results due out after the bell today.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Report: Apple to benefit from Intel chip switch; Mac sales on the rise – July 13, 2005
Comprehensive survey shows ‘iPod Halo Effect’ is increasing Apple Mac sales, market share – July 12, 2005
Smartmoney.com article sounds stupid about Apple’s ‘iPod Halo Effect’ – July 12, 2005
SG Cowen survey shows evidence of a significant iPod halo effect boosting Apple Mac sales – July 12, 2005
Analysts expect Apple to post $3.33 billion in revenue for Q3-2005 on July 13 – July 07, 2005
Merrill Lynch: Mac sales ‘appear robust,’ expects futher evidence of ‘iPod Halo Effect’ – July 07, 2005
BofA raises Apple earnings estimates, forecasts 5.4 million iPods, 28-percent Mac growth for quarter – July 07, 2005
TheStreet.com dubiously concludes that iPod demand has slowed, could impact Apple earnings – July 06, 2005
J.P. Morgan raises Apple estimates based on ‘more optimistic’ Mac shipments – July 05, 2005
First Albany raises Apple earnings, sales, iPod forecasts, cuts Mac mini forecast – July 05, 2005
Apple to webcast third quarter 2005 financial results conference call on July 13 – July 05, 2005
RealMoney: Apple’s iPod Halo Effect ‘quite profound,’ Macs taking good market share from Wintel – June 27, 2005
Morgan Stanley: Apple’s ‘iPod Halo Effect’ is ‘roughly double what the market expects’ – March 18, 2005
It’s a ridiculous headline. Who DOESN’T want to see more iPod sales?
(Other than Dell, Creative, Real, Microsoft etc…)
I would like to see more money in my pocket
I would like steak and lobster for dinner every night
I would like to live in the Playboy mansion
all from the “no duh” category
Hammer, you seem cranky this morning…
Like many Americans, Rob Glaser is a fat pig who can’t even control his own calorie intake. How can he be expected to control a company?
Notes for fat pigs:
• You don’t have a “condition.”
• It’s not a disease.
• You are lazy and have no self control.
• You eat too much and too much of it is junk and sugar.
• You sit on your fat ass way too much.
• You need to fscking move around – find something you like that’s active and do it routinely.
• If you’re offended, I’m glad. Maybe you’ll do something about it and my fscking health insurance rates will decrease. I’m sick of paying for your twinkies.
• You are a fat pig. Take care of yourself.
• If you fat pigs and I started running right now, I’d run you all into the ground, six feet under, literally.
• Lay off the doughnuts and give yourselves the gift of 30-60 minutes of real activity per day – the human body was designed to routinely physically move about to keep it healthy. Waddling back and forth to the vending machine three times a day doesn’t count.
If Apple pulls off iPod sales of 5.4 million or better, considering this is traditionally the slowest quarter of the year sales wise, then they are definitely sitting pretty, the analysts be damned…
Scott Morrison must’ve sat next to Monica Rivituso in statistics class. Declining sales for Creative tells us exactly one thing: interest in Creative’s products is waning. It doesn’t necessarily mean that demand for all digital music players is declining, especially this early in the market’s life when the category is growing, and it absolutely doesn’t tell us one damn thing about demand for Apple’s products. If anything, the more reasonable speculation is that waning demand for Creative helps Apple, as it’s the dominant player in the market. If the market is stable or growing—still very reasonable to assume at this point—and Creative is tanking, Apple benefits.
First of all, the 2nd quarter is traditionally a slow one for companies like Apple anyways… this is not the holiday buying season, nor is it even the back-to-school quarter!! Wall Street is made up of a bunch of FOOLS. And anybody who is confused why Wall Street is acting like such a vicious beast against Apple on a regular basis, please watch the horrifying documentary “The Corporation”. This shocking documentary shows how Wall Street & most public corporations are designed to ONLY care about one thing — increasing profits at the expense of human health, the environment, safe products, and all human welfare. Apple Computer is probably one of the very few companies that actually DOES care about quality product, human welfare, the environment, and safe products — yet Wall Street attacks them over it. People who work in Wall Street should be ashamed of themselves. And this documentary is a must-see film
Wall Street is the new Atlantic City. It’s just for gamblers and day traders who lack real initiative. And it’s a bad barometer to guage the health of a company.
nah, not cranky, just tellin it like it is. Im optimistic Apple will do well.
MW order, as in I had an order of cheese fries at lunch.