“Bill Gates this week spilled the beans about the introduction date for xBox2 — a slip that was anything but a slip. If you go to the news stories about this, you’ll note the context in which he was speaking, which was talking about Microsoft’s potential involvement in the so-called ‘year of HD.’ Where have we heard that term before? Why from Steve Jobs of Apple! Why would Bill Gates use Apple’s expression? It’s because Microsoft has an inkling of what’s shortly to come from Apple and wants to at least appear to have a horse in the race, which it doesn’t,” Robert X. Cringely writes for PBS.
“Apple last week shipped Mac OS 10.4, which they have incessantly told us we should call ‘Tiger,’ but I prefer ‘10.4,’ thanks. The Year of HD is dependent on 10.4 and its H.264 video codec that I believe will be at the heart of an Apple HD video download service to be announced shortly. And in 10.4, we can see the first parts of that system coming together, notably Apple’s new HD Video Showcase, which routes you right through the iTunes Music Store. Increase the video selection, add prices, and they are done,” Cringely writes.
“And 10.4 gives us a peek at another evolution of iTunes, which is the inevitable expansion of the system to carry additional audio file formats. Looking at the unused iTunes icons that shipped with your new version of 10.4, you’ll notice icons for currently-not-supported ogg vorbis and Windows Media Audio (wma), as well as several others including a variety of video formats, too,” Cringely writes. “With this new information we can make a pretty good guess about the evolution of both iTunes and iPod. When Apple feels that the success of iTunes is absolutely assured, which will be shortly, they’ll address the user complaint that iPod only supports AAC and MP3 audio by adding these additional formats, leading to increased iPod sales. And at the same time, the video icons strongly suggest that Apple will also have a video iPod this year.”
Not only all that, but Cringely goes on to speculate that as Apple drives down iPod prices, there will come a time when iTunes is the moneymaker, not the iPod hardware sales. At that point, Steve Jobs will open the iPod platform to cloning extracting license fees from those desperate to make their own “iPod” units. Cloning the iPod at the correct time will leave Apple as the monster distributor of online music and movies via what is now the iTunes Music Store. One question springs to mind, can Apple add video content and continue to call it “iTunes” or will they need a new name?
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: When Cringely writes about Apple, we pay attention. Some bits of truth (and sometimes whole chunks) tend to materialize at some point or other. Cringely may not provide perfect predictions, but they’re oftentimes close enough to matter. Some parts of what he writes in the linked article will come true. It’s just which parts and how much, those are the questions.
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple releases iTunes 4.8; now supports QuickTime video along with contact, calendar transfers – May 09, 2005
Are Apple’s ‘iPod’ and ‘Mac mini’ the razors or the blades? – January 28, 2005
Cringely: the full story about Apple Mac mini’s purpose has not yet been told – January 21, 2005
Cringely predicts $249 Macintosh, would make Apple the world’s number one PC company – January 10, 2005
Cringely: is this the beginning of the end for Macintosh hardware? – May 21, 2004
Robert X. Cringely: Steve Jobs ‘is proud of being an a**hole’ – April 30, 2004
PBS columnist: IT hates Macs because ‘Macs reduce IT head count’ – August 15, 2003
Besides the mentioned movie store, your idea is simply mindless.
People don’t like buying new hardware. They have DVD player, they will buy DVD’s. Until you give them a compelling reason. A card being smaller (physical size, not binary size) than a DVD is not a compelling reason.
The only part of Cringley’s piece that has the ring of truth is the “year of HD.” There is zero chance of Apple permitting iPod clones since, as has long been true in the computer space, Apple views itself fundamentally as a HARDWARE company. This is a “when hell freezes over” type of thing, and don’t anyone bring up iTunes for Windows–Apple had Quicktime for Windows for a long time before that, so iTunes for Windows wasn’t nearly as big a leap as this would be. Though Apple is a business, SJ clearly has an aesthetic vision, and sleek hardware is at the core of that. I’m among the most hard-nosed of business guys in some ways, but even from that perspective it is a big mistake to assume that individuals aren’t sometimes motivated by such factors, and in any case SJ clearly IS.
Just my $0.02
Videos in iTunes is as stupid as videos on iPods. Let them play music, let QuickTime handle videos and video purchase.
But, wait, one type of videos is relevant to iTunes: Music Videos.
Let us choose to include the music video in the purchase of music in iTunes. If we include the music video, we can play it the same way we use (the outdated) visualisation feature, by pressing a video button in the bottom right corner.
Magic word: Never! Oh, well, it was worth a try, though.
OMG!
somebody quick do the math!….
IS BLUETOOTH 2.0 FAST ENOUGH FOR H.264 @ 1920×1080 ??!?
Hey Charko, you don’t like poop???
How about a Golden Shower then?
Triumph – it’s obvious that Charko ain’t a Yankee, and therefore has not a clue as to what a deep and intellectual mind you have (not to mention a cultural icon to be revered and respected). I think he needs a drive-by pooping.
Here is what WILL work and what A LOT of people would buy:
In the future vPod, videos won’t be viewable on the player itself – but it will act as a portable “all around media device”. You will go to iTunes and download anything from your favorite movie to episodic TV (think Sienfeld or Alias). These files will be stored on your 120g vPod and you will have a cord that will hook up to ANY type of connection (progressive scan, component, or typical RCA jacks). You will then take your vPod with you wherever you go (just think about it – no more paying for the “premium” channels when you are staying at a hotel). Some company will make small, portable “iScreens” that are powered by battteries for those times when there is no “monitor” available (about the same size screen as current portable dvd players).
The only thing that needs to happen to make this possible (and profitable) will be the ongoing expansion of broadband. When broadband becomes as prevelant as 56k dial up access, say goodbye to Blockbuster
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There is something money can’t buy. It is call originality, which Bill does not have and he has to constantly copy Apple.
Hello. Yeh-hehesssss, the phony ‘Triumph’ above can exit the scene now, since I am here.
Don’t let him sway you — he is nothing but a Winnerd. You know, an uber-dork. The same way most Winnerds are . . . like Gates.
I mean really, de only time this phony masquerading as me ever got ‘laid’ was when his family brought him to Hawai’i. No, I keed. I keed the lame and limp.
By the way, I love to smell men’s crothes.
Bluetooth is not fast enough for video – SD or HD. But UWB certainly is. And Bluetooth is fast enough for a remote control. And UWB and Bluetooth have begun to work together.
There has been no public indication that Apple bought iFlicks or iFlix. No press release. No trademark registration filing. All we know is both sites and their offerings disappeared sometime in January.
Why would people buy something new if they already have a DVD player? Because their DVD player does not play HD.
Any Apple video store will offer HD. That’s what Apple’s been waiting for before they get into the media center business.
The name iFlicks is taken.
http://www.helixent.com/iflicks/
Notice from site:
iFlicks is back!
On January 4, 2005, Helixent Technologies released iFlicks 1.0. iFlicks made it easy to store, browse, and play all your favorite movies. However, on January 6, 2005, two days after the release, iFlicks was pulled from the market.
iFlicks 1.0 was in no way hampered by serious technical problems. Any copies of iFlicks 1.0 that had been downloaded and installed continued to function as normal.
We still cannot, and will not, disclose the exact nature of the situation that caused us to halt distribution of iFlicks. However, we are pleased to announce the rerelease of iFlicks, as version 1.1, on February 26, 2005.
The downtime has been spent refining iFlicks and making it an even better and more powerful movie organizer and player. There are even more great features planned for future releases of iFlicks, as well as some exciting announcements to make in the coming months. Stay tuned to Helixent Technologies’ web site for further details.
We would like to thank everyone who has expressed their support and satisfaction with iFlicks 1.0. We hope that you will find iFlicks 1.1 even more enjoyable to use. If you did not get a chance to try out version 1.0, please download and evaluate version 1.1. We think you will be pleased.
When Apple introduces video, they will provide enough of an easy integrated system so people will buy it. So what pieces are needed: Video content, delivery to Mac/PC on broadband network, delivery to big HDTV via home wireless network.
So video store is coming to fufill the year of HD as there have been so many hints from Hollywood studios and TV networks that they are willing to sell downloadable and streaming content over Internet and/or 3G networks. And the DRM will be the same as that of Blu-Ray HD drives.
Will there be a new app called iFlicks/iFlix for both Mac and PC instead of bundling video inside iTunes? Maybe if Apple thinks they can get PC users to load another app. (Mac users will do it easily via Software Update.) In any case, this software should allow a user to set criteria that will cause the Store to automatically discover (Spotlight server technology) and download stuff to the user’s Playlist for purchase. Once the user okays/buys it, it is immediately unlocked and ready to view. Of course, the user can also browse the Store, but then there will be a brief delay while downloading (filling the buffer).
Why will this be available for PC users? Because Apple (the hardware company) has hardware to sell them: the HD video version of Airport Express to meet the bottleneck of getting video from PCs to TVs. This is Apple’s trojan horse into the living room of PC users. Then later Apple will try to sell them a Mac media hub with a Blu-Ray recordable drive to start offloading downloaded video from hard drives.
What about the video iPod? I still don’t see people watching on such a small screen. An iPod could still be used to carry content and drive a TV/projector, so maybe Apple will also sell a separate small 7′ or 9″ portable display into which you plug in the iPod. But the battery…
Bluetooth 2.0 is 2.1 Mbps (not fast enough for HD, but fine for SD, could do delayed or cached HD…
eyeTunes
Maybe there is a reason why Apple is partnering now with HP on iPods. I can see HP building the first Mac mini clones for Apple to address the masses of potential Wintel customers. HP could build a Mac mini for say $199. Let’s see Dell compete with that. They cannot because they zero engineering skills/creativity and also pay MS a lot to bundle XP per unit. Who knows, Dell could even become the next Mac cloner after that. Gates would get out of the computer business if that happened, guaranteed.
Here’s how it’s gonna go down, there will be a video pod but it will basically be an afterthought in the press release “oh by the way you can also watch video on here/present it on a tv screen” I also do beleive there will be a video download service sooner than many might think! All the ducks are in a row. You heard it here first.
All the pieces are already in place. The iPod IS the delivery device. The video iPod would have a dock with component video out – right into your HD-TV set (just like the iPod photo). You would play movies from the iPod. Since it takes about 100 meg for 5 minutes of H.264 HD Video (see the Fantastic Four trailer…), that means that 2.5 gig would be all you need for about 2 hours of HD Video (20 meg a minute)… Thinks about it: You’d use your computer to manage and store your library in iTunesMovies that you’d buy from iTunes Movie Store. You could watch it on your computer if you wanted to. You could watch it on the iPod’s little screen if you wanted to, but drop the iPod in a dock, and you’d get HD on your HDTV!!! Remember – H.264 is SCALEABLE. Geez, there could even be a video-capable Airport Express that would let you share your movies off any computer to any TV in the house. I really think that this is where it’s headed.
http://home.hawaii.rr.com/thedepot/images/farkentry
Location of icons:
/Applications/VLC.app/Contents/Resources/
What’s in it for Apple to support WMA? I thought this was a fight to the death between WMA and AAC.
Also, does an Apple media center based on the Mac mini figure into anyone’s equations?
Oh yeah, and I’d like IBM to start making Xserve clones, maybe followed later by Macs (would bring a whole new meaning to the term “IBM-compatible”!)
Then bring HP on board, then Sony …
if the licensing deal does materialize, i hope it’s to the celphone companies…. if the celphone is indeed the ipod’s biggest competitor, apple should be smart enough to steal that market before it’s big enough to threaten the ipod…..
though personally, i wouldn’t want to waste cel phone batteries on music…. imagine an hour commute with you listening to your music on your phone and when you get to work, your battery wuod be half dead….
MDN, you really need to give Triumph his own column on your site.
He KILLS me.
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Magic word is “pool” as in “pool of piddle” that Triumph leaves on Bill Gates’ leg!