“To some analysts, Apple is so last year. The computer company was the ‘in’ thing in 2004, thanks to the megahit iPod line of music players. But some analysts are wondering whether Apple may be a one-hit wonder. The iPod’s ability to drive Apple’s stock is already fading, and unless the company finds another chart-topper, it could be yesterday’s news,” Troy Wolverton reports for TheStreet.com.
“‘It’s just a different ballgame this year than last year,’ says Shaw Wu, who covers the company for American Technology Research. Wu doesn’t have a position in Apple’s stock, and AmTech does not do investment banking. Apple continues to post strong iPod sales, of course, and is the leading vendor of digital music devices. But Wu and other analysts see signs of trouble,” Wolverton reports.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Just because some analysts see signs of trouble doesn’t mean there’s trouble. Some analysts seem as if wouldn’t be able to analyze their way out of a wet paper bag. Read the full article to find out how some are searching hard for any negatives to grab onto, even going so far as to dredge up the G4 Cube and wrongly comparing the iPod to the Mac’s history. It’s funny how wrong some people can be when they misunderstand lessons of the past and don’t clearly realize what’s really happening today.
The Macintosh platform required and still requires huge investments by developers to create compatible software. So, when faced with budgetary contraints, developers chose and still sometimes choose to go with the most popular platforms. The iPod simply plays music that can be encoded, for very little cost, in any format the “developers” (musicians and labels) desire: AAC, MP3, WMA, etc. The music doesn’t need to be rewritten, recorded, and remastered. It’s like writing Photoshop once and then pressing a button to translate it for use on Mac, Windows, Linux, etc. Any analyst who draws an analogy between Mac OS licensing and the iPod/iTunes symbiotic relationship is simply highlighting their ignorance of the vast differences between the two business situations.
I’m not too worried about it. Once someone has a preconception, it’s difficult to shine the light on their own misunderstanding. The light is shining, and people are beginning the let go of their misunderstanding of Apple Computer. It’s just gonna take some longer to realize the truth than others. And the truth is this: Apple kicks the shit out of MS. Now, if AAPL has the ability to gain, say 20% marketshare, how much will that be worth? Hell yeah.
Besides, the next iPod is already out – it’s called the Mac Mini.
Someone once said: When it comes to ANALysts, first four letters say it all.
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Well, the stock’s down 25% in the last 3 weeks, so obviously Apple’s all washed up and headed for bankruptcy. Oh wait, ALL the stock markets worldwide are down….
Too bad the analysts and financial gurus can’t see fit to reward a company that is poised to DOUBLE its marketshare this year.
More “analysts” trying to call the top in AAPL’s share price to get the credit. And talking out of their arses, as usual. The article makes some valid points, but completely fails to address the fundemental fact that Macs are selling like hot cakes, are not “pricey” as the article states, and that Apple already has a hot new product: the Mac Mini.
Watch them crawl back under their rocks come June’s results.
The analysts haven’t yet grasped the fact that every single PC user who also happens to try the iTunes Search function (and there will be many because Apple will most certainly make it abundantly known) will immediately come to the staggering realization that they could have the same stunning capability for their entire computer … every minute nook and cranny of it … if only they had a Mac with OS X 10.4.
Give it a few months.
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Hmm. I beg to differ.
The fact that after almost 2 years there have been little advancements in the Powermac line and today pro user were treated to an embarassing 200mhz speed bump indicates that there are signs of trouble.
Blame IBM, blame Motorola, blame anyone. It still means trouble for Apple and Powermac sales. Apple should have at least given price cuts if nothing else. Come on. The “pro” hardware line is 2 years old with no major improvements. That’s trouble if you ask me.
– Wu doesn’t have a position in Apple’s stock, but does he have a position in M…?
– This kind of “analysis” and “autorized opinions” will be more and more frequent until december 2006
– Frequent almost like the increase of Apple share in pc’s market
– This is the price for success
– I love success
Trouble: “The “pro” hardware line is 2 years old with no major improvements. That’s trouble if you ask me.”
So, besides a big jump in processor speed, what “major improvements” would you like to see Apple bring?
bigger HD –>OEMs
different screens–>OEMs
more ram–>OEMs
Blu-Ray–probably on its way
Trouble,
Apple’s growth won’t come from its pro-line, but the consumer lines. I agree the lack of huge leaps forward in the pro-line is bad, but it doesn’t impact much on Apple’s bottom line. Less and less so, in fact.
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having said that, when they finally do deliver a significant upgrade, you can bet they will shift record numbers of them
I agree Trouble.
The iPod has done great, but what about us core Pro users. Apple needs to do something about the slumping sales in it’s Pro lines. A price cut would have helped, I don’t think 200mhz and a $90 dual layer burner is gonna be reason for anyone who bought a Dual Powermac 2 years ago to upgrade.
Apple can no longer claim the powermac as “The world’s most powerful computer” because, well.. it simply isn’t.
Apple now has two business with two business models. One is the iPod/iTunes business which is a volume market, the other is the computer business which is a quality market*.
The Street understands volume markets but not quality markets, The Street believes a quality brand should be brought down market to achieve greater volumes. All the fluctuation in price / analysts comments are based on the music market which they ‘understand’, the computer business is treated as more or less a constant.
*Apple’s comnputer business has become a volume play recently but for the most part The Street hasn’t noticed yet. Years of R&D and great management at Apple contrast with Wintel companies struggling with incompetant design, poor quality manufacturing and appalling quality software. So great is the mess on the Wintel side that Apple now produces better quality hardware, software, support and service at LOWER prices than those companies who benefit from economies of scale.
Fill me in, Anaheim.
What IS the world’s most powerful computer?
From the Apple website: The dual 2.7GHz model packs so much power into tight quarters that Apple designed a liquid cooling system for it, resulting in a cool tower that runs Photoshop nearly two times faster than a Pentium 4-based system.
Are they blowing smoke here? Again, and for the rest of us, what IS the world’s most powerful computer?
What are next months articals going to say. When Apple does have success with Tiger, the Mini, new IMac and PowerMac lines etc.
Apple does it again. But, is it just luck or are they onto something. We’ll have to wait and see, but this analyist has his doubts. With Longhorn just around the corner, Apple had better have a few more tricks up their sleeve or they’re going out of business.
CaptnKirk,
First of all there was not a big jump in processor speed. The jump was 200 mhz and is still liquid cooled which means it has an approximate life of 2 years before trouble begins. (No pun intended!)
For what Apple is offering Price-cuts were definitely in order.
Secondly the Ram should have been upped to 512 long ago. Even 512 is extremely minimal for a Pro machine.
And yes, I was expecting Blu-Ray.. This is the year of Hi-Def afterall.
Dual core processors.
Still using PCI and PCI X
I am a Pro user, I want Bleeding edge technology from Apple and I’m not impressed that after two years today’s lineup is all they can offer for their top of the line Macs.
The Pro line used to be where Apple’s emphasis lay. No longer is the case. Apple has shifted it’s energy into becoming more of a consumer electronics company.
Even worse than the Powermac line is the Powerbook line. How old are those G4 processors now?
This article is ignorance at its best.
Apple; going out of business since 1984!
“This article is ignorance at its best.”
Of course it is, because it’s not praising Apple. Afterall, Apple can do no wrong. They make all the right decisions, they are never wrong and the rest of the world hasn’t got a clue.
Oh yeah, Steve is GOD too!
“First of all there was not a big jump in processor speed. The jump was 200 mhz and is still liquid cooled which means it has an approximate life of 2 years before trouble begins. (No pun intended!)
Seeing how that ‘two-year’ life is based off of something a rumor site said, I wouldn’t put total faith in it.
I do agree with some of the other things you mentioned, especially price cuts on current offerings.
I think 1 GB Ram should be at least on top-end models.
Dual core chips would be great, but if they’re not ready, no amount of wishing is going to get them here faster. Hopefully, when they do come, they’ll be over 3 GHz in speed
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As for slots, I’d like to see 2 PCI-X, 1 or 2 PCIe (x1) and 1 or 2 PCIe (x16 – graphics; 2 slots for SLI capabilities)
I don’t know about Blu-Ray. I don’t think the drives are ready yet – not to mention the final spec.
I’d also like to see: SATA 2, Room for 3 or 4 Hard Drives and maybe a few more USB and FireWire ports.
G5’s didn’t ship til Aug of 03 or so.
It’s now late Apr 2005 – 20 months later.
2GHz top end -> 2.7GHz top end – looks like a 35% boost over those 20 months.
Compare against Intel’s record in the same time frame. The fastest P4 in fall of 2003 was a 3.4 or 3.6GHz part IIRC. If they’ve cracked 4GHz, they didn’t announce it anywhere that one would notice…
The two big new technologies that Apple needs are multi-core CPU’s and PCI Express. It will happen.
This article is a little misleading. Troy Wolverton first says:
“Unit sales were up 16% in the second quarter over the first quarter, but the company’s iPod revenue was down 16% sequentially.”
Then he says:
“With growth of its star product slowing, the company needs something else to drive its growth rate and its stock price, analysts say.”
His second statement contradicts his first statement.
The iPod took at least a year before it started attracting a lot of attention.
Really it wasn’t until the 3G ipod was released at the same time as iTMS that the ball started rolling. And really only a year later that the stock market started paying attention.
Hopefully the mac mini will have the same impact. I don’t think we’ll truly see a big difference until the Xmas quarter.
But if market share rises above 6 % in the US and 5% in the world, it’s going to become a good ride.
CaptnKirk,
First of all there was not a big jump in processor speed.
—
Uh yeah, read it again.. that’s why he said “besides a proc. speed jump, what would you like to see from Apple”
it was a 200 mhz jump instead of a 500 mhz jump.. yawn
have a cookie.
Mike,
Maybe you should stop yawning and pay attention when you read.
CaptnKirk said “Besides a BIG jump in processor speed”
I simply said that 200mhz wasn’t a big jump.
BTW: I don’t like cookies!