Thurrott: Mac OS X Tiger ‘will do absolutely nothing to change the Mac’s market share’

“Sometimes wishful thinking for the underdog can get in the way of common sense. In fact, when you think about it, that’s been Apple’s strategy with the Macintosh since Steve Jobs returned to the company over 8 years ago. This week, a number of online reports have been touting the upcoming ‘OS war’ between Mac OS X ‘Tiger’–due as early as next month–and Microsoft’s ever-delayed Longhorn system, which by most accounts will ship shortly after the presidential election in 2164. From what I can tell, Tiger will be a big success for Apple, but only in the sense that its previous Mac OS X versions have been big successes. That is, it will sell a few million copies and do absolutely nothing to change the Mac’s market share, now under 2 percent (though, hopefully, the el cheapo Mac mini will help there). Longhorn, meanwhile, will sell in the hundreds of millions of copies in its first couple of years of availability and, like XP, will continue the dominance Windows has enjoyed since the mid-1990s. I’m not trying to argue that Longhorn will be ‘better’ than Tiger here, or whatever. I’m just being pragmatic: Microsoft sold more copies of Windows XP while I wrote this blurb than Apple will ever sell of OS X Tiger. That’s just the market. And anyone who tries to turn the releases of these two systems into some sort of market competition just doesn’t get it,” Paul Thurrott writes for WinInfo.

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: There are a couple of things to look at here. If there is no threat from Apple, why bother writing about Apple, the Mac, and Tiger? Apple’s Mac market share at last measure stood at 3.2% of the US PC market, up from 2.9% in 2003; Mac market share is already growing. Did Microsoft really sell more copies of Windows XP than Apple will ever sell of Mac OS X Tiger in the 5-10 minutes it took Paul to bang out the above paragraph? No way. If there’s no threat from Apple to the Wintel hegemony, why all the fake Mac OS X virus FUD lately?

As long as Apple makes an OS, the “war” ain’t over. After years of pounding, Apple still stands today; trying to pretend it’s all over isn’t going to knock out the Mac platform, either. This article was created on a 100% Microsoft-free Apple Macintosh – available for sale and use today. It’s not who’s laughing now, it’s who laughs last that matters. Oh, one could say, “Those silly Mac users, always tilting at windmills!” But, that would overlook one very pragmatic fact: we’re still here. By the millions. “Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.”

Some people think the world is a static place and that nothing can ever radically change. They couldn’t be more wrong, especially about the personal computer market which is still in its infancy. Never forget that in 1929, Ford held just over 61% of the U.S. market for automobiles. General Motors’ market share stood at just 12%. Ford was thought to be invincible, with GM regarded as a niche auto maker. But, in 1936, just seven years later, Ford held 22% of the market for new automobiles while General Motors held a 43% share. No company is invincible. Not even Microsoft. Moo.

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple could grow global Mac market share to 5% in 2005; Morgan Stanley ups AAPL price target to $60 – March 18, 2005
Apple’s Mac is not doomed to small market share forever; the ‘Ignorance Lag’ is ending – February 11, 2005
Analyst: Apple Mac worldwide market share could increase to 4.5 percent by end of 2006 – January 24, 2005
Apple shows strong Mac shipment growth, market share gains in fourth quarter 2004 – January 19, 2005

110 Comments

  1. Newsflash!

    Nothing could ever happen that would change Paul T’s mind about anything. He made it up years ago, and no amount of evidence or reality will ever be able to change it.

  2. That’s right Mac zealots, Tiger will change everything, absolutely everything. Oh yeah, Microsoft is in big trouble now, any day now, just wait, it’s all over for Redmond. Tiger will take over in the war, you bet.

  3. This got you scared Voltar?

    Shouldn’t you be in a Windows forum where you’ll feel reassured by others?

    ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  4. But Longhorn Cattle moo.

    That’s the reference.

    On a related note, it’s unfortunate that MS picked a mountain name for their OS… that has been completely disassociated with some impressive mountain and seen as a very boring, ugly and stupid BOVINE. As a matter of fact, it always was bad to use a mountain as a code-name like they have all these years… and yet, it’s appropriate for Windows. From afar, a mountain can look impressive. Beautiful. “Rock-steady” if you will. It’s when you actually try to “use” the mountain (as in climbing it — or using Windows) that you come to find that it is difficult and dangerous to use, the footings beneath you are undependable, the environment is inhospitable and it’s fairly easy to “crash” when climbing a mountain. There comes a time for many climbers where they regret deciding to tackle the monster before them, they’re STUCK up there and they WISH they could just get away from it, immediately. They wish they could “switch” their environment ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

    Ironically, such is Windows.

    Good call, Microsoft.

    As for “Tiger” (like Panther, Jaguar, Puma, a very sleek connotation), I don’t think it’ll cause major waves in the user-base out there. iPod and Mac Mini will contribute to some growth, but even the most rosy of predictions shouldn’t get beyond Apple miraculously doubling their quarterly market-share — which would be an absolute BOON for Apple… but barely a blip on MS’s radar and they’ll still be #1 and worrying about Linux. So be it. Folks, given all the crap that gets injected into the dominant OS in this world and notwithstanding OS X’s better (but not impenetrable) security, a distant yet healthy 2nd Place is not at all a bad thing! We may have it better than most people realize! ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

  5. All these trolls hanging around, bashing Apple and Macintoshes, and supporting Windows are actually Bill Gates.

    Just keep insisting it’s Bill and he will eventully split for awhile. We’ll have a nice vacation from him, but eventually he’ll return with new names.

    Give it a try, It’s worked for me about 3 or 4 times.

    Who else has the the time or motivation to hang aroung forums giving Apple fans a hard time?

    DV

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