Analyst: Apple Mac worldwide market share could increase to 4.5 percent by end of 2006

“Some had begun to consider Apple Computer Inc. irrelevant. After five years of no growth in its Macintosh business, California-based Apple’s share of the worldwide personal computer market had shrunk to a paltry 2.2 percent. But now analysts are having second thoughts about Apple’s relevance, because it appears music may save the company from oblivion,” Steve Alexander writes for The Minneapolis Star Tribune.

“Apple’s rescuer is the iPod, a palm-size digital music player with a tiny computer hard drive that puts an entire music library in your pocket,” Alexander writes. “The iPod is so popular with consumers that some analysts now believe it carries a “halo effect” that will help Apple move its computer business off dead center. Apple’s Macintosh sales grew twice as fast as the overall personal computer industry’s sales in the first quarter, a surge that coincided with record iPod sales. And the company just introduced a new low-cost Apple, the Mac Mini computer, which has iPod-like characteristics.”

Alexander continues, “‘We are big believers in the iPod halo effect,’ said Gene Munster, a senior analyst at Minneapolis-based Piper Jaffray… If Macintosh computer sales continue to rise along with iPod sales, it could increase Apple’s share of the worldwide personal computer market to as much as 4.5 percent by the end of 2006, said Munster. That may not sound like much, but each 1 percent of market-share gain in the personal computer market is worth about $1 billion in revenue, said Ron Johnson, Apple’s senior vice president of retail… ‘Within two years, there will be 60 million to 80 million hard-disk-based digital music players worldwide, compared to 15 million now,’ Munster said. Because of the iPod’s early success in digital music, ‘we think Apple can sustain its momentum.’ In addition, Apple’s high-volume production of the iPod gives it manufacturing-cost advantages that others will find hard to duplicate, he said. ‘The iPod has given Apple a second life,’ Munster said. ‘Without the iPod, Apple would be irrelevant.'”

Full article here.

31 Comments

  1. “….Without the iPod, Apple would be irrelevant…..'”

    Who is this guy, and what “qualifications” does he have that makes him an “expert” ?

    Irrelevant ??

    To whom ??

    To him ??

    This guy is a dork !!

  2. Without the iPod, Apple would be irrelevant

    I’d like to take a moment to point out that Apple, not PortalPlayer, not Creative, made the iPod.

    The fact that the Mac is ‘irrelevant’ should not be synonymous with ‘badly designed’ or ‘out of touch’ or ‘underpowered’ or ‘just for the artsy types’

    Irrelevant says as much about the buying public as it does about Apple..

    Apple sells Xserves for up to $5000…

    Because of a music player, IT managers now know Apple isn’t going out of business, and might start looking at Xserves.. ?!

    Doesn’t sound so farfetched does it?

    …makes you want to vomit.

    On a lighter note, a worldwide share of 4.5, means a US share of 9 percent…(very very rough estimate) which is about a quarter of Dell’s share in the US (hint. That’s not an insult. That’s a good thing. That’s an amazing thing.)

    Like I said, the street is drunk on the 499 number… before Apple was lost and distracted, now they’re bold, innovative and expanding?!

    But thanks to the analyst for putting a very positive message out..

  3. Interesting, He quotes Ron Johnson, Apple Retail V.P. – since so many iPods are being bought by Windows users, and assuming that Windows users will have more problems than Mac users (natch), I wonder how these customer’s experiences at the genius bars are affecting switching. I haven’t seen a Windows PC at the genius bar – how do the geniuses restore a Windows iPod? Virtual PC? And do the geniuses have to become Windows experts now, too?

  4. when you think how much behind the curve the analysts have been about apple’s stock price, if they, or some of them, are thinking that apple might get 4.5% market share in the next one or two years, then think what that probably really means about where the market share might get to!

  5. Back in the 80’s, the whole industry was young and all the players were looking to find their role. Apple played a major role in the development of todays popular platforms. Unfortunately they suffered some set-backs in their day, but managed to keep their heads above water.

    Now more recently, there have been a lot of contenders in the new musicscape frontier and Apple has shown their mettle and ability to fine tune the desires/demands of the consumer with their vision of what the future is going to hold. They are truly forging their own destiny.

    I believe that OS X and beyond are going to accomplish the same thing in the computer realm that they’re doing in the music market (and probably movies very soon, also).

    I just want to thank Apple for holding their ground and creating products that I wouldn’t trade for anything.

    I’d also like to thank MDN for these magic words that frighten me with their eerie foresight….

  6. I would like to point out that WITHOUT Apple – Microsoft would be irelevent!!

    Without Apple inventing the mouse, desktop pc, the OS gui, firewire etc etc Microsoft users would still be using a command line OS with no interface!

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