“I’ve heard lots of talk, too, from vendors certain that other music players will match iPod during 2005 and lay its lead to waste. After some deep reflection, I don’t agree, because I see these other music players as competing in an apples and oranges race (pardon the pun) with iPod. The device is quickly moving beyond the role of just being a music player into that of an emerging platform. How much of a platform depends upon Apple’s vision,” Jupiter Research Analyst Joe Wilcox writes in his Weblog.
“Take for example the huge economy of iPod add-on peripherals cropping up around Apple’s music player. Other examples: Third-party applications; podcasting; heck, even Playboy’s iBods that got way too much press yesterday. The soft porn silhouettes are formated for the iPod Photo screen… What other products might other vendors sell for that screen? I can think of plenty,” Wilcox writes. “Every platform needs a killer application. Apple focused on the first category, music, and now is moving to photos. Initially, I skeptically regarded iPod Photo, because I saw the price as too high for what the buyer gets. I still regard iPod Photo as pricey, but see the device’s merits from the platform perspective. Apparently, so does Playboy. And there will be other vendors, not just peripheral manufacturers, all looking to make money off iPod.”
“I hear lots of FUD–that’s fear, uncertainty and doubt–about Apple’s unwillingness to license its Fairplay DRM to other companies. And in the past, I suggested that Apple should consider licensing deals. But as iPod emerges as a platform, I see such licensing as making more and less sense. The music player is the platform, not the music store; iTunes is one killer application for the iPod platform. Licensing Fairplay to other music stores could benefit sales of the core potential iPod platform. I do believe Apple should license Fairplay for creating “second session” rights-protected tracks on copy protected CDs. JupiterResearch forecasts have CD sales eclipsing digital downloads or subscriptions for a long, long time,” Wilcox writes. “As for the licensing FUD, I hear vendors talk about how Microsoft’s Windows Media Audio is more open and offers consumers more choice. OH PLEASE! Don’t make me laugh. The title of last week’s report from colleague Michael Gartenberg says it all; “Digital Music: MP3 Remains the File Format of Choice for Consumers.” The format consumers care most about is MP3, which Apple fully supports in both iTunes and iPod. By comparison, Microsoft’s Windows Media Player 10 will not rip acceptable-quality MP3s without an encoder from another vendor.”
“Lots of vendors have attempted to establish platforms and failed, and I’m not 100 percent convinced Apple fully understands the iPod platform potential or how to extend it. The creation of a separate iPod division is a promising sign. Apple Macworld announcements on January 11 could give more indication,” Wilcox writes. ” I would argue that the iPod is posed to become much more than a music player. But, eventual platform success is predicated on many factors, including the will of Apple to seize the opportunity. Will Apple?”
Full article, with much more, here.
I can’t agree with this article more. Apple has a potential hit in so many field, ie PDA type device as well, I just hope the capitalize on it timely.
Wonderful read. Thanks MDN!
Good read, better than the usual foaming at the mouth usually found here.
Apple has potential to undo every mistake in its history if only it would listen to bean counters.
Analyst makes a good point.. but the story, or course is.. Keep doing your thing, Apple..
Which isn’t really a story, now is it..
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God we Mac users can be such bitches
Until Apple “gets it” and offers an API or SDK, the iPod will remain a music/photo player with its limited future directly in Apple’s hands.
Sure the iPod is a hot seller, but what happens when they hit market saturation, and everyone who’d want a music player has a couple? Incremental upgrades (lighter, thinner, better batteries) will work for a while but that’s hardly compelling enough to keep the market on fire. The iPod could be SO much more than a music box; it’s a shame third-parties have no good way to try new ideas.
As soon as you have an SDK you hand M$ et al a back door to the iPod – it wont happen.
Yeah.. mac-it.. i’d love to use MS Excel on the iPod with that scrollwheel!!
PFFFFFFFFT
Get bent.. The iPod is a music player first and foremost..A removable drive second and…solitaire..
Convergence blows..
Apple, please follow this one good advise and make licensing happen while it counts. It will push the Apple Computer sales as well. Best idea in years for Apple
I’d like to see more cute iPod Games that you can dload and put on your pod…
Get bent? Get real.
So what WILL happen when everybody has one or two iPods? They’ll keep buying more of the same because they like Apple? I don’t think so.
I hate to say it but Apple is in danger of pulling another Macintosh. A great first lead with a closed architecture that lost big over time…
It’s kind of like the console game industry. You don’t see Sony licensing out the Playstation 2. Nor do you see XBox being licensed out. I see the iPod like that. It’s a platform, and Apple should promote developers to add things to it, like FM radio, recording, etc, etc.
I agree with Eric.
I think where the analyst is wrong is that it already is a “platform”. Tim O’Reilly calls it the first end-to-end “web services” platform. They can just keep adding things, all served via the net (or WiFi). And people are already figuring out other uses…see this screen grap…it’s using iTunes to keep track of climatic dat rather then music…
———-
mac-it…It’s the walkman of the millennium, the walkman made Sony and they lived off it for years. The number of iPods sold so far is just the tip of the iceberg.
Eric.. amen.. you have DRM’d music that only works on.. the iPOD..
the Gaming comparaison is decent.. (except programming a game for two different systems is expensive)
But if you have a PS the backwards compatibility of the PS2 appeals to you..
What happens is the market for Digital Music Players grows each and every year.. until it becomes a multibillion dollar revenue source for Apple.. gee that must suck..
Oh yeah.. and people remember Apple makes computers..
Apple Mac unit sales go up..
Pretty lame huh?
And the iPod makes the iTMS a surging share of yearly music sales.. suddenly Apple is reaping Economies of Scale and making strong profits on yealy sales on iTMS of $500M..
Ahem… Airport Express sales go through the proverbial roof..
Of course, Convergence would destroy the iPod.. They did a pretty good job with the photos.. but its already to messy
G-Spank,
that’s a really good idea. That would make the iPod even more popular among the young – and not just the young.
Games don’t have to be sophisticated as far as graphics go.
The simple games are often the best.
Take ‘Snood’ as an example among many.
When the kids can play a game at the same time as listening to their favourite music, then the iPod would become ubiquitous.
“So what WILL happen when everybody has one or two iPods?”
You mean when Apple will have sold some 300+ millions units?
Remember, the market is NOT *just* Mac users.
If Apple is smart, they’ll not only move into using Flash for their iPods, but also use Flash to create a mini cross platform OS system.
Apple is succeeding by not listening to the bean counter! Apple needs to continue to grow the platform by careful alliances with certain companies, not broad licensing.
U2 and HP were perfect examples of good alliances. Both parties brought something to the table, you have to be able to give to receive is the key to these alliances. When they made their agreement with HP I was wondering what they got; I didn’t realize where the iPod would show up because of HP’s marketing.
Most of these so-called experts have ulterior motives for their feigned concern for the iPod. Go Steve!
Mark.. agreed..
Hey.. is it just me or has Apple been getting alot of experience promoting bands… weird huh.. it’s like.. this ‘we’ll give you free advertising if we can use your music’ thing is really a magic formula for them..
Jet, Black Eyed Peas, U2…
In terms of brilliant alliances, U2’s association with the iPod and their own iPod (which draws Complete U2 sales) has been a masterful move..
And the 200 millionth song from iTunes? One of the songs from The Complete U2..
That may very well be a total lie.. but Bono is grinning ear to ear at how things have worked out with this deal..
Then again.. it’s not like they’re in the poor house.. but still.. brilliant joint campaign..
I’m guessing the Beatles are less and less likely to sign an exclusivity deal with the.. er.. very very exclusive MSN Music ‘Club’?
People say the iPod can be used for a lot more – but it can’t. What more can the iPod be used for except a few low-level games and tiny, jumpy video clips – stuff already available on other devices? Apple ain’t gonna throw away what it has for a handful of gimmicky second-rate add-ons.
I expect the iPod will eventually add functionality to become a remote control device for Apple’s ‘digital hub’.
Benson: what can it be used for a lot more?
What about like the use of any regular firewire HD? Like installing an entire system in it and even boot from it? Or like a backup device or for storing all you presentations in the last 5 years and just having to plug it in to have it readily available.
Indeed, good for nothing but music and low-level games.
http://www.alpine-usa.com/products/leading_technology/leading_tech_kca-420i.htm
http://peripheralelectronics.com/ipod2car/index.shtml
http://www.discountcarstereo.com/
I have an iPod and as of right now I see no reason to spend twice as much on another one just because it has more memory and a color screen. What would intice me into buying another iPod however would be if you could use all that hard drive space to store and play DVDs on that color screen. Who wouldn’t want that?
Why the SDK would give M$ a “backdoor” is that it would allow competing music stores the ability to play songs protected by their own DRM, the iTMS would no longer be able to lock out Real, Napster, Walmart, Microsoft, etc… probably not worth the risk for another card game on the iPod.
Just thought I’d mention it since that result seemed to be missed by some.
If CD’s will be outselling legal download music for a long, long time then DRM’s and licensing them are irrelevant! 90% of the music on my iTunes are ripped from CD’s. iTunes and the “Get CD Track Names” make this easy.
According to Michael Gartenberg, “Digital Music: MP3 Remains the File Format of Choice for Consumers.” Since iTunes and the iPod support CD’s and mp3’s, it is an open standard.
“Sure the iPod is a hot seller, but what happens when they hit market saturation, and everyone who’d want a music player has a couple? Incremental upgrades (lighter, thinner, better batteries) will work for a while but that’s hardly compelling enough to keep the market on fire. The iPod could be SO much more than a music box; it’s a shame third-parties have no good way to try new ideas.”
Sony has sold how many millions of walkmans?