Smith Barney analyst expects Apple to sell 22 million ‘iPod flash’ units over next two years

“The buzz over Apple Computer’s next iPod music player has reached a fevered pitch after one web site posted details and a mock up drawing of the new device, which stores music on flash memory chips rather than mini hard disk drives. The MacMind.com, one of several websites devoted to all things Apple, this week reported that the iPod Flash, as it would supposedly be called, would start at $99 and wouldn’t be much bigger than a Milano cookie,” Scott Morrison reports for The Financial Times.

“As if to prove their report, the website’s authors posted a 3D illustration of the device, even though the artist had never laid eyes on the new iPod,” Morrison reports.

MacDailyNews Note: See RUMOR: Apple’s ‘iPod flash’ revealed (with image) for images and more info.

“While this kind of enthusiasm might appear to some to border on dangerous obsession, it is hardly uncommon in the Apple universe, where fervent Macheads salivate about upcoming products and then invariably swoon as they are made public,” Morrison reports. “Wall Street analysts have anticipated that Apple would soon release its own flash based music player to compete at the low end of the market. In a recent research report, Richard Gardner, analyst at Smith Barney, said he expected Apple to sell as many as 22m flashed-based iPods over the next two fiscal years.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Predicting units sales of a product that is unannounced, only rumored to exist, with no retail pricing information, specs, features, or anything else is quite a trick.

21 Comments

  1. Warning: MacDailyNews is now in the habit of censoring posts that they don’t agree with. They have no posting policy posted on their site, but if they don’t like your post then they censor. Mine contained disparaging remarks about our current president. Big Brother is alive and well at MDN. How do you like that?

  2. this is a mac forum. why are you trying to convert the masses to your political beliefs? i have no interest in your views and i am sure no one else does either. please remain focused on the article posted. thank you

  3. Exactly– froth at the mouth about politics elsewhere.

    Now about the topic: I worry a bit that if the “FlashPod” doesn’t materialize as expected, even if there is something really cool in it’s place that thick-minded investors will jump ship (even temporarily).

    If investors feel spooked because they were unable to predict the future, they’re “irrational exhuberance” can cause the stock to rollercoaster.

  4. yeah really i’m sure many people think bush is a moron (like moi) but let’s stay focused on macs and macstuff. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”LOL” style=”border:0;” />

  5. It’s really quite simple. If your post has nothing to do with the subject and consists only as a screed that is meaningless to the subject at hand, your post may be deleted. The subject of your post (be it Bush, Jimmy Carter, or the Easter Bunny) has no bearing whatsoever on whether your post is removed. It’s rare, but posts can be removed when they have nothing of value to add to the relevant discussion.

    If George Bush, Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, or Vladimir Putin happens to be integral to an article, blast away. Otherwise, there are “political” discussion boards elsewhere on the Web that would probably love to hear from you.

    Who determines the value of the posts? MacDailyNews staff has sole discretion.

    The following is an example post to this article:
    “First Post! George Bush is Hitler. I hope Apple sells 100 million iPod flash players.”
    This post may be edited by MDN to read:
    “I hope Apple sells 100 million iPod flash players.”

    Or the post may be removed completely depending on how busy we are and/or our mood at the time. The post above, from “Fakie Stover” would be a candidate for deletion, but is left as an example to explain this reply.

    This is a very “open” forum with no registration or censoring (we do replace a certain word with “fsck” when the whim strikes us; it’s a long-standing MDN tradition). 99.9% of people will have no problems. Enjoy.

  6. Fakie,

    This forum is for Mac users to share opinions about Mac-related subjects. Not a place to vent your own personal political frustrations.

    MDN has had a tendency to give readers/posters a lot of latitude and leeway when it comes to the posting of opinions, but it is *their* and they alone have the discretion to determine what is appropriate, and what is not, for *their* site.

    If you don’t like it, then why don’t you start a political-rant site of your own? Or better yet, just take your ass somewhere else.

  7. hey fakie,

    Is it all right if I come over to your house, molest your dog and pour diesel fuel on the lawn?

    NO?!?!?! WHY THE HELL NOT?!?!?!

    You’re just a mean ol’ fascist, for not letting me come onto your property and doing what I want…

    Grow up, fakie… The election is over, and it’s time to move on… If you want to go off-topic on a tech site, go over to the forums at Arstechnica or Slashdot.

    [ON-TOPIC PART OF THE POST: I had no idea that the analysts and traders at Smith Barney still had the big mountain of cocaine and hallucinogenic drugs still left from the late eighties/early nineties. Why would ANYONE trust their money to these clowns, when they’re setting sales estimates on non-extistant products? What’s next, are Piper Jaffray’s analysts going to come out with flying rocket car projections???]

  8. I’m glad that Apple’s been getting a lot of positive press lately about its products (esp. the iPod family), but I’m really concerned about these predictions by the analysts at Smith Barney about a product that (supposedly) doesn’t even exist yet.

    What do you suppose is going to happen to Apple’s stock price if SJ doesn’t unwrap a new FlashPod next month?? That’s right, it’s gonna tank. Those guys need to get a grip on themselves and stop trying to anticipate Apple’s next move and base the valuations on what people are buying *now,* not what may or may not be coming down the pike.

    I hope Apple does release a smaller capacity FlashPod so that they can capitalize on their momentary popularity (strike while the iron is hot because it *will* eventually cool) and dominate the entire range of mp3 players. Would I bet money that they will? I don’t know, that’s a tough one. Who *really* knows what cool things Steve has up his sleeve?

  9. 22 million!!! that is crazy. granted the margins will be a lot smaller on those. even at dirt cheap prices, i find it hard to believe that 22 million in 2 years.

    That is a lot.

    A LOT.

  10. I wonder if Rio, Dell, and company are quaking even at the rumour. Seems the analysts have a lot of faith in the power of Mac.
    ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”cool smile” style=”border:0;” />

  11. The number, 22 million, is more then likely based on what others are currently selling in the way of flash-based MP3 Players at the present time. Extrapolating how Apple, with their marketing finesse in these matters, will do is a good guess. Of course, we’re all assuming that there will be a flash player come Jan-Feb.

  12. Thanks for the background webmaster. I know the current state of politics makes for it to spill into this site.
    I know I make such posts.
    I know I make silly posts.
    I know I make some insightful posts at some time.

    I like the diversity, what can I say.

    But overall, you MDN rocks.

    You can delete my posts anytime.

  13. At this rate Apple is going to have to create a Flash based iPod even if they hadn’t planned to, just to save the stock value. Seriously, shouldn’t these analysts be able to be held liable for any damage they do by spreading rumors? People’s lives can be seriously affected by what they say. If I had all my retirement savings wrapped up in Apple stock (OK, I know it would be stupid to do that, but I’m just making a point) and these idiots drove the price up with their rumors only to have it tank when they didn’t come true, I’d go ballistic!

    Oh, and fakie, when you start your own site you can say anything you want. Until then, beat it. We really don’t care what you think about Bush.

  14. Do you really think for one minute that Apples legal department would allow that “Mock up” to stay online for more that a few hours if it was even close to being true?

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