“Of the top 10 PC manufacturers, which three will be gone in 2007? Gartner says tougher times lay ahead for PC vendors and that three of the top players are likely to be squeezed out of business by lower profits and slumping sales. But Gartner won’t say which three will be gone,” David Coursey writes for eWeek. “Gutless predictions like this are a no-lose for Gartner. When all 10 companies are still here in 2008, if someone mentions the 2004 prediction Gartner can claim to have sounded the alarm early enough to avert the catastrophe. And by not naming the three, Gartner still gets to sell research to all 10.”
“So, today I’m going to do what Gartner wasn’t willing to: predict which companies are in for the toughest time over the next few years. Remember, however, that Gartner predicts the shakeout won’t start until 2006 and that 2005 will actually be a good year for the companies,” Coursey writes. “The top 10 worldwide vendors, by units shipped, are Dell, HP, IBM, Fujitsu Ltd., Fujitsu Siemens Computers, Toshiba, NEC, Apple, Lenovo Group and Gateway.”
Coursey writes, “Without detailed financial or sales number crunching, here’s the order in which I handicap these companies, from most likely to be around as a PC company on Jan. 1, 2008, to least likely.”
2. Lenovo Group
6 Fujitsu Siemens
9. Fujitsu Ltd.
Coursey writes, “If Gartner is right, that means Gateway, Fujitsu Ltd. and NEC are goners. But if either IBM or HP spins out its PC business, then things look better for one of the three.”
Find out Coursey’s reasoning behind the order of his list in the full article here.