Of the top 10 PC manufacturers, which three will be gone in 2007?

“Of the top 10 PC manufacturers, which three will be gone in 2007? Gartner says tougher times lay ahead for PC vendors and that three of the top players are likely to be squeezed out of business by lower profits and slumping sales. But Gartner won’t say which three will be gone,” David Coursey writes for eWeek. “Gutless predictions like this are a no-lose for Gartner. When all 10 companies are still here in 2008, if someone mentions the 2004 prediction Gartner can claim to have sounded the alarm early enough to avert the catastrophe. And by not naming the three, Gartner still gets to sell research to all 10.”

“So, today I’m going to do what Gartner wasn’t willing to: predict which companies are in for the toughest time over the next few years. Remember, however, that Gartner predicts the shakeout won’t start until 2006 and that 2005 will actually be a good year for the companies,” Coursey writes. “The top 10 worldwide vendors, by units shipped, are Dell, HP, IBM, Fujitsu Ltd., Fujitsu Siemens Computers, Toshiba, NEC, Apple, Lenovo Group and Gateway.”

Coursey writes, “Without detailed financial or sales number crunching, here’s the order in which I handicap these companies, from most likely to be around as a PC company on Jan. 1, 2008, to least likely.”

1. Dell
2. Lenovo Group
3. Apple
4. HP
5. Toshiba
6 Fujitsu Siemens
7. IBM
8. Gateway
9. Fujitsu Ltd.
10. NEC

Coursey writes, “If Gartner is right, that means Gateway, Fujitsu Ltd. and NEC are goners. But if either IBM or HP spins out its PC business, then things look better for one of the three.”

Find out Coursey’s reasoning behind the order of his list in the full article here.

31 Comments

  1. Apple isnt a PC manufacturer, it is a Mac manufacturer – there is a difference. The entire Mac market is different and Apple can survive longer as it has higher margins. The PC market is more cut-throat and therefore precarious for its players.

  2. When someone gets the bright idea to market those cheap Chinese Lenovo boxes here in the US running desktop Linux you better sell all your M$ and Dell stock.

    I just love it how the low margin PC companies just fight amonst themselves and go out of buisness.

    Apple was smart not to play in the gutter. The only thing SJ did wrong was hire John Scully.

    Piece of $#%# soda water salesman.

  3. Just think of it this way, eMachines and Compaq are gone now, They are right in that a larger company in dire need will purchase a smaller one to increase their share and fire everyone.

    Are Fujitsu Siemens and Fujitsu Ltd different companies?

  4. NoCrackForYou wrote:

    > When someone gets the bright idea to market those
    > cheap Chinese Lenovo boxes here in the US running
    > desktop Linux you better sell all your M$ and Dell
    > stock.

    Maybe. The trick is the boxes have to WORK. If the systems work there’ll only be three makers LEFT by 2007. But if the hardware & software are useless junk, they won’t sell at any price. Not to mention that the current industry won’t go down without a fight; expect serious FUD from all sides (esp. MS). Regardless the next few years will be interesting!

  5. “The only thing SJ did wrong was hire John Scully. Piece of $#%# soda water salesman.”

    Again, I’ll stand up for Sculley. If it wasn’t for Sculley, you’d still have black and white Macs with 9 inch screens and no slots. It was Sculley–or perhaps, more accurately, Gass�e–who started the whole “Open Mac”. Jobs was against that.

    Hell, Mac sales didn’t really take off until Jobs left Apple.

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