Analysts: Apple iTunes Music Store’s second year ‘may not be as rosy as the first’

“A year ago this week, Apple CEO Steve Jobs introduced an online music store that promised to make buying and playing digital music on portable devices like Apple’s iPod less cumbersome. It wasn’t exactly a revolutionary idea, but it had a profound effect. Many thought legitimate services couldn’t compete with free, unlicensed services like Kazaa. But Apple has sold 50 million songs and helped spawn an array of me-too services from Wal-Mart, Musicmatch and a revived Napster,” Jefferson Graham writes for USA Today.

[MacDailyNews Note: Apple has sold more than 50 million songs. Probably in excess of 70-80 million songs, at least. Hopefully, Apple will tell us exactly how many on iTMS’s first birthday, this Wednesday.]

“Apple dominates online music with an estimated 50% market share. Its iPod is the best-selling portable digital music player. But Internet analysts suggest the next year may not be as rosy as the first. The increased competition


  1. Only time will tell with this one. I am getting tired of all this speculation based on nothing but conjecture.

    I am sure Apple will be on top in a year. So, MDN, put a note on your calendar to revisit this. Also, can you point out quote for quote what the analysts and industry “experts” are saying now and what they will say then.

    I bet it will be like, “Sony will need more time to permeate the market to make a noticable difference.” And this is after Sony only sells 50,000 tracks online in 6 months.

    First post?

  2. On the upside, we’re having to do a lot of conjecturing these days because the competition isn’t delivering. So, we’re always thinking about the theoretical company that finally does deliver. Maybe this theoretical company will never exist. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />

  3. So the dilemma for non-iPod users is that they can’t play music from iTunes and have to choose from a variety of confusing services (many of which will be out of business in 6 months). I suppose that MS will make that a little easier by reserving a link to those music sites in their WMP player. After a year, they’ll have 12 links – 3 of which actually still work.

    Meanwhile, the dilemma for iPod users will be that they also won’t be able to play music from these same out of business music sights. Oh ya, maybe it’s not really a dilemma.

  4. I don’t own an iPod. I tried to save $35 by buying an iPod knock-off. Now I can’t sell it for 20% of what I paid for it 3 months ago. It sucks and I’d rather use iTunes. I want an iPod. I wish I could just kick myself in the face for being so fscking stupid!

  5. I havea TiVo machine that I bought a few years ago when everyone warned me TiVo would be out of business in a year or two because “no one can comptete with Microsoft” – yet I haven’t heard much about the Microsoft DVR lately. Is it still around?

  6. Analysts have been wrong the whole year and especially on the iPod Mini, while Apple hasn’t made one mistake yet. Hmmm, who am I going to trust. iTunes one year anniversary, this Wednesday – should be interesting.

  7. Answers: I’d rather own my music and I’d rather use iTunes on my Windows pile of crap because Apple offers the program for free and I love the word “free” more than my own mother. iTunes is way better than all of the rest, but if they were free programs and Apple charged 1-cent, I would go with Napster or Wal-Mart because I am your average brain-dead product of the union-destroyed American public school system. Which is why I think I should always buy Windows and drive a Chevy. Gimme another Schlitz!

  8. What the anal-ysts forget is that iTunes was only available to Mac users for quite awhile before it opened up to Windows sufferers. That means that for a portion of their first year in business, many people couldn’t use it. Now it’s available to all of those folks for an entire business year, and they may very well have come to like it. With all of these pretenders not even penetrating the market yet, I don’t see Apple as having a bad second year with iTunes.

  9. I hate when you guys bring up the rent vs. own argument. How do I own my iTMS music? Its pretty obvious from Apple’s recent actions against PlayFair that I don’t own my music. If I owned it, I should be able to do whatever I want with it provided I don’t share it with others.

  10. Jeff S.

    Is Apple preventing you from burning a CD of your iTMS music? Moron, you don’t need PlayFair – iTunes already strips the DRM off iTMS songs for you. Burn away, dude! Sorry, I called you a moron.

  11. There seems to be an awful lot of Mother Theresa wannabes around that are awfully worried about people that use iPods being out of luck and out of the mainstream.

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