“Apple’s iPod, the diminutive portable music player beloved of minimalists and trendies, has been a smash hit. Strong quarterly results on Wednesday night drove the New York-listed shares to a stunning 38 per cent rise this year, opening at $29.02 yesterday,” James Dow writes for The Scotsman. “But there are three good reasons to think iPod sales will slump in the not too distant future – taking the shares in the same direction.”
“Apple has a fabulous history of innovating to-die-for products, whose sales then crumble after rivals launch similar offerings. The legendary Macintosh, which introduced the icon interface and the mouse to home PCs, gave Apple a 16 per cent share of the US market in the 1980s. Today it has less than 5 per cent. Its rivals, of whom there were dozens, soon offered the same product for less cash,” Dow writes. “Within 12 months, the
I think the real reason behind such inept writing and journalism is simply a predetermined schoo-of-thought (so much for no bias) and pure & simple laziness on his part. So much of what he wrote sounds like he got it from a source “who heard it from a friend of a friend”… I’d really be upset, if it wasn’t such a pathetic article.
Hywel – Brilliant sarcasm! Love it! 😀
The comparisons between the iPod and original Sony Walkman are ridiculous if you ask me. The Walkman averaged around $50 or something like that, and was just a cassette player, while the iPod is actually a small computer and is priced as such. Obviously a product that ran between $20 to $100 is going to sell better than a product that sells between $250 to $500. When I was 12 I got a Walkman for Christmas that probably cost around $30, which was good because, as a typical 12 year old boy, I was careless with it and broke it in a matter of weeks. I wouldn’t buy a 12 year old an iPod of any kind. Obviously the Walkman, due to it’s price, had a wider appeal.
As technology changes and production ramps up, I could see a decent MP3 player available for $50. I would also suspect that Apple will move the price of their iPods in response. They have shown that they are willing to compete while still offering value to differentiate themselves.
I also don’t see the big deal. The obstacle right now is DRM as required by the music publishers. Remove DRM from the equation and you have players able to use anything out there from any music store. As a consumer looking for an MP3 player, I would want to get one that offers good sound and other features, allows me to rip my vinyl/CD collection to it, and provides access to digital songs to be played on it. Pretty much all MP3 players do that now. The exception would be iPods in foreign markets. Even this doesn’t seem to be a barrier to users there.
The only way I can see any of this being an issue is if at some point there are different music suppliers that won’t support the iPod and iTMS – perhaps some independent labels or artists. I would suspect, however, that those people would probably use MP3 and not even worry about DRM. As long as you can get all the same music from any store, there really isn’t any competition other than in the player.
If you are like Real and others and are starting a music store without a player, I think you are missing the boat.
What about Sony’s unstoppable success with the “formidable” minidisc?
Sony, one of the “giants of the electronics world” with its “enormous budgets and terrific economies of scale” will make sure everyone has one these babies. (ok not as good as betamax, but another sony semi-failure)
oh yeah, for the earlier posters, that’s sarcasm.
Hywel ‘t komt goed !
I’m curious. Has anyone actually ever tried to license Fairplay/AAC and been TURNED DOWN????
Real’s jabbering was about “forming an alliance.” All the “opening up the iPod” nonsense has been about forcing the iPod to use WMA.
Where’s the hard evidence that Apple is “keeping the iPod closed?”
I purchased on of the first generation Sony walkmen, It was a heck of alot more than $30…. More like $150. It was worth every penny. It wasn’t until a few years later that the lower priced models from Sony and others came out. Even then Sony had a higher end/ higher priced model that had the latest features…..
We will see the same thing with the iPod… Apple will probably intro a 2gig mini at $179-$200 or maybe drop the price on the 4gig mini when they intro the 8 gig mini
Prices will really drop when everyone offers a hard drive based player, and hard drive manufacturesbesides Hitachi go into production with the 1 inch or smaller drives. With many companies making smaller drives, and competing on price to move units, iPod pricing will fall as other mp3 players go hard drive based.
The original Walkman was closer to $200 when it came out under the name “Soundabout”. Prices didn’t drop until the competition started coming out with similar cassette players and production went from Japan to Taiwan and other Malyasia. The writer forgets one thing. Apple isn’t going to stand still with the current iPods – standard and mini. No, adding more functions isn’t the ticket. These are audio players and that’s what the need to do. We may see surround sound versions in the future. Prices will definately come down and the iPod may no longer dominate the market but as previously said, sales will increase because everybody will want some kind of MP3 player. That’s why it is so important the iTMS become a profit-making situation. Apple will make sure of that the best they can. Giving in to threats from Rob Glaser won’t make them surrender. Apple is smarter then that.
Steve Jobs typed a short message to The New York Times as he forwarded them Glaser’s email: “This should fuck ’em Real good.”
The Scotsman???
’nuff said.
‘Apple iPod sales will slump in the not too distant future’. Wow, really? This ridiculously high rate of sales won’t continue like this forever and ever, until the sun is a burnt-out cinder? Next you’ll tell me that it’s going to rain some day.
Old Jobs sure called Glasers bluff. Go crawl to Microsoft you pathetic ass.
it will rain here in the not to distant future…. it will snow in the not to distant future… Microsoft will ship LongBore in the not to distant future…. Apple will make a profit in the not to distant future, Apple will have a loss in the not to distant future….
for this:
One comment Dow makes is parroting what Glaser said. Yes only iTunes downloaded songs will play on the iPod. Of course we know that WMA and other formats can easily be ported to the iPod by burning a CD of the songs loading them into iTunes and then copying the songs to the iPod.
Try http://www.carrafix.com/EasyWMA/
You can convert .wma files to MP3 and then import the MP3 files into iTunes. you can also batch procces them
Much easier than burning to CD.
wow! that program should be an optional DL on the apple site man!!!
Ooooh… what if Sony:
– came out with a player that played standard digital audio (mp3/AAC)
– integrated this player into its audio systems
– designed it attractively, as it normally does
– produced mutliple versions (small, small w/recording, large, large w/recording, video capability, a radio)
The only thing that’d ruin it for me: ATRAC3
Don’t forget how huge and experienced in this field Sony is compared to Apple. Sony may not be the first at many things, but it definitely comes with it when it decides it wants something.
—–
So come with it Sony! I love the iPod, can you deliver something better?
Ooooh… what if Sony:
– came out with a player that played standard digital audio (mp3/AAC)
– integrated this player into its audio systems
– designed it attractively, as it normally does
– produced mutliple versions (small, small w/recording, large, large w/recording, video capability, a radio)
The only thing that’d ruin it for me: ATRAC3
Don’t forget how huge and experienced in this field Sony is compared to Apple. Sony may not be the first at many things, but it definitely comes with it when it decides it wants something.
—–
So come with it Sony! I love the iPod, can you deliver something better?
Mmmm, sarcasm. Thanks, Hywel, B, Ryan.
(As a teaching aid, I suggest the Fawlty Tower’s box set.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />
And thanks to Patrice, for EasyWMA. DLed 1.1.2 from MacUpdate last Saturday. Glad I waited for the ‘fix’.
Oh BTW, Sony helped create ‘AAC’. Should Sony be slagging a company that actually uses it? Maybe. They ‘tricked’ Apple into using CD technology.
Maybe the consortium that created AAC/m4a is working in kahoots with M$, and they’re all going to switch to wma any day now. Maybe they’re gonna show it on “Punkt’, with Ashton and Bill ‘punking’ Steve.
So tell you’re friends, AAC was financed by BG3 to ‘punk’ Apple.
One more thing.
Is there a writer/editorialist that will publicly challange these ‘journalists’?
A point by point refutation of these ‘pundits’ in a ‘respected’ publication is what’s sorely needed here.
Thanks great find!
Thanks, great find winmacguy. Previous post wrong!
Go 8TRAC!
Greeting. Good afternoon. Help me! There is an urgent need for sites: Takara detox foot pads. I found only this –
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”mad” style=”border:0;” />, Urilla from Gabon.