Merrill Lynch: ‘iPod success eventually to spill over into Mac purchases’

“Merrill Lynch increased its 2004 unit growth forecast to 13% from 11%, the same as in 2003, based on a decent consumer showing and an improving corporate market,” reports.

“Apple Computer saw unit share dip below 2% for the first time–down to 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Merrill Lynch said, ‘We expect iPod success eventually to spill over into Mac purchases,'” reports.

Full article here.


  1. Apple share below 2% and selling as never done before. Merrill Lynch should know better that global market share has little to do with actual presence in the consumer market.

    That also explain why, contrary to what anal-ysts predicted, iTMS sales did not jump tenfolds with the release of the Windows version: cash registers, dumb terminal and alike do not account for a home user behind. All that 95% of market share probably amounts to less than 50% of home users.

  2. well, judging from my Wintel friends they do not even *dare* to dowload or share music online because of viruses. Some do connect just for the time to send an email and disconnect again. I tell them it is a dumb way to use a computer but they simply do not believe my Mac is immune. Seeing me with a permanent connection is not enough. Normally they are clever but on computing it is as if someone unplugs their brains and they praise Microsoft. For what it is beyond comprehension.

  3. While the logic is sound enough and you did say ‘probably’, the ‘less than 50% of home users’ doesn’t quite ring true. It may well be 85% to 90% rather than 95%, but less than 50% is really pushing it.

    I like it, but I don’t believe it for a moment !

    Part of the problem is that windows ships with most PCs, but a fair few move to Linux. Those switchers don’t affect the market share. I don’t think there are any installed OS market share figures. I’d expect them to be slightly different to the simple PCs sold figures (to the detriment of windows).

  4. The problem with the spillover idea is that iPods sell better than hotcakes because they are great AND price competitive.

    However it is widely believed, by the people who are shopping for computers, that Macs are not price competitive.
    The bottom line counts for a lot.

  5. Hywel, perhaps I read Seahawk’s post differently. I thought Seahawk was saying that less than 50% of the pc sales are to home users. You make a good point that the market share numbers can no longer be interpreted to assume a specific os.

  6. treadlightly / Seahawk.

    Re-read it and engaged brain this time. I see what you mean now ! yes. WAY less than 50%.

    In my case, I have 1 PC at work, 1 PC and 2 macs at home. But I attach to a fair number of PC servers at work in order to get my work done.

  7. Plus EVERYBODY here has a PC and there are PCs in meeting rooms. The chef has a PC on the network, the security guy on the front desk has a PC on the network. There’s a PC running the plasma screen at the front desk (and badly too – OS-X would do a much better job)

    In fact, I might see if I can get konfabulator to do a better job just to demonstrate it to them.

  8. Joe, you may be partially right about the cost, but consider this: More and more PC virii (including today’s announcement that MyDoom now deletes files) are making people madder and madder at their computers. So now they stop by an Apple store and get an iPod, and they see the new iMacs. They start looking at them, talking to people, and considering the purchase. The spillover effect may get some of these folks.

    More and more reasons to switch these days. People are slow to learn, but it’s happening.

  9. I always wonder what the percents would be if you only looked at “personal” computers. I would think that the majority of MACs are used at home. Take out the work/business PC and what do you get?

  10. if Apple made computesr to the same low quality standards as the PC assemblers, their market share would go way up because people would have to buy a new one much more often or when a new OS is rolled out. I read somewhere the other day someone had a seven year old Apple and it runs OSX just fine. Try that with a PC and Micro shit!

  11. Apple just continues to slip down the slope. Market share gets smaller and smaller. Obviously Apple has a serious problem with its product mix and is too slow to bring out newer, faster, cheaper computers.
    The eMac is a dog, iMac sales are in the toilet….and I�m waiting for a faster dual G5.

    Spillover effect of ipod purchases will be a teeny-tiny amount on sales (my daughter has an ipod and uses it with her windows pc) and any sales would be to people that were already planning on buying a mac.

    Time for apple to bring out some new ideas in its computer product mix.

  12. “if Apple made computesr to the same low quality standards as the PC assemblers, their market share would go way up because people would have to buy a new one much more often or when a new OS is rolled out.” – 1hunglo

    I am afraid not. Apple will be synonym with crap and the media will kill them. IT people will have a new ammunition to slight Apple. MS drones will continue to buy Windows. Non-partisan/new users will think that the much-argued-about quality of Macs are lies.

  13. Hey Wisenheimer 2 (no relation), how can you say that Apple doesn’t put out good new ideas in its product mixes? Look at some of the recent hardware & software that Apple is creating. The G5 are rocking, Panther is the best OS out there, light years ahead of any flavor of Windows. iLife 4 has some great apps for $49!!! The price point comparisons pretty close, despite what Joe Mc sez.

    The problem is that people are sheep. I buy what my company buys. I buy what everyone else buys. I don’t think for myself. I don’t shop and find that there really IS software for the Mac. Baaaaaah.

    So, Apple’s problem is not products. It’s not price. It’s perception. Get people to actually look at their products and they may buy. So, the iPod helps in that respect. As does the Apple Store, located in your nearby mall.

    Now, along the same lines, if they put out a good ad or 2, maybe they can get things moving even faster!

    My 2 cents….

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