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Mon, Mar 15, 2010 - 04:33 AM EDT  —  AAPL: 226.60 (+1.10, +0.49%)  |  NASDAQ: 2367.66 (-0.80, -0.03%)

Smith Barney analyst expects Apple to sell 22 million ‘iPod flash’ units over next two years
Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:29 AM EDT

"The buzz over Apple Computer's next iPod music player has reached a fevered pitch after one web site posted details and a mock up drawing of the new device, which stores music on flash memory chips rather than mini hard disk drives. The MacMind.com, one of several websites devoted to all things Apple, this week reported that the iPod Flash, as it would supposedly be called, would start at $99 and wouldn't be much bigger than a Milano cookie," Scott Morrison reports for The Financial Times.

"As if to prove their report, the website's authors posted a 3D illustration of the device, even though the artist had never laid eyes on the new iPod," Morrison reports.

MacDailyNews Note: See RUMOR: Apple's 'iPod flash' revealed (with image) for images and more info.

"While this kind of enthusiasm might appear to some to border on dangerous obsession, it is hardly uncommon in the Apple universe, where fervent Macheads salivate about upcoming products and then invariably swoon as they are made public," Morrison reports. "Wall Street analysts have anticipated that Apple would soon release its own flash based music player to compete at the low end of the market. In a recent research report, Richard Gardner, analyst at Smith Barney, said he expected Apple to sell as many as 22m flashed-based iPods over the next two fiscal years."

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Predicting units sales of a product that is unannounced, only rumored to exist, with no retail pricing information, specs, features, or anything else is quite a trick.

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Dec 10, 04 - 10:42 am Comment from: Fakie Stover

Warning: MacDailyNews is now in the habit of censoring posts that they don't agree with. They have no posting policy posted on their site, but if they don't like your post then they censor. Mine contained disparaging remarks about our current president. Big Brother is alive and well at MDN. How do you like that?

Dec 10, 04 - 10:45 am Comment from: macrick

this is a mac forum. why are you trying to convert the masses to your political beliefs? i have no interest in your views and i am sure no one else does either. please remain focused on the article posted. thank you

Dec 10, 04 - 10:50 am Comment from: R

Exactly-- froth at the mouth about politics elsewhere.

Now about the topic: I worry a bit that if the "FlashPod" doesn't materialize as expected, even if there is something really cool in it's place that thick-minded investors will jump ship (even temporarily).

If investors feel spooked because they were unable to predict the future, they're "irrational exhuberance" can cause the stock to rollercoaster.

Dec 10, 04 - 10:51 am Comment from: reader

yeah really i'm sure many people think bush is a moron (like moi) but let's stay focused on macs and macstuff. LOL

Dec 10, 04 - 11:02 am Comment from: MacDailyNews Webmaster

It's really quite simple. If your post has nothing to do with the subject and consists only as a screed that is meaningless to the subject at hand, your post may be deleted. The subject of your post (be it Bush, Jimmy Carter, or the Easter Bunny) has no bearing whatsoever on whether your post is removed. It's rare, but posts can be removed when they have nothing of value to add to the relevant discussion.

If George Bush, Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, or Vladimir Putin happens to be integral to an article, blast away. Otherwise, there are "political" discussion boards elsewhere on the Web that would probably love to hear from you.

Who determines the value of the posts? MacDailyNews staff has sole discretion.

The following is an example post to this article:
"First Post! George Bush is Hitler. I hope Apple sells 100 million iPod flash players."
This post may be edited by MDN to read:
"I hope Apple sells 100 million iPod flash players."

Or the post may be removed completely depending on how busy we are and/or our mood at the time. The post above, from "Fakie Stover" would be a candidate for deletion, but is left as an example to explain this reply.

This is a very "open" forum with no registration or censoring (we do replace a certain word with "fsck" when the whim strikes us; it's a long-standing MDN tradition). 99.9% of people will have no problems. Enjoy.

Dec 10, 04 - 11:22 am Comment from: fandango

Fakie,

This forum is for Mac users to share opinions about Mac-related subjects. Not a place to vent your own personal political frustrations.

MDN has had a tendency to give readers/posters a lot of latitude and leeway when it comes to the posting of opinions, but it is *their* and they alone have the discretion to determine what is appropriate, and what is not, for *their* site.

If you don't like it, then why don't you start a political-rant site of your own? Or better yet, just take your ass somewhere else.

Dec 10, 04 - 11:38 am Comment from: Smithy

I for one completely agree with the Webmaster.

Good site MDN, keep it up grin

Dec 10, 04 - 11:41 am Comment from: rogozhin

hey fakie,

Is it all right if I come over to your house, molest your dog and pour diesel fuel on the lawn?


NO?!?!?! WHY THE HELL NOT?!?!?!


You're just a mean ol' fascist, for not letting me come onto your property and doing what I want...

Grow up, fakie... The election is over, and it's time to move on... If you want to go off-topic on a tech site, go over to the forums at Arstechnica or Slashdot.

[ON-TOPIC PART OF THE POST: I had no idea that the analysts and traders at Smith Barney still had the big mountain of cocaine and hallucinogenic drugs still left from the late eighties/early nineties. Why would ANYONE trust their money to these clowns, when they're setting sales estimates on non-extistant products? What's next, are Piper Jaffray's analysts going to come out with flying rocket car projections???]

Dec 10, 04 - 11:42 am Comment from: Cautiously Optimistic

I'm glad that Apple's been getting a lot of positive press lately about its products (esp. the iPod family), but I'm really concerned about these predictions by the analysts at Smith Barney about a product that (supposedly) doesn't even exist yet.

What do you suppose is going to happen to Apple's stock price if SJ doesn't unwrap a new FlashPod next month?? That's right, it's gonna tank. Those guys need to get a grip on themselves and stop trying to anticipate Apple's next move and base the valuations on what people are buying *now,* not what may or may not be coming down the pike.

I hope Apple does release a smaller capacity FlashPod so that they can capitalize on their momentary popularity (strike while the iron is hot because it *will* eventually cool) and dominate the entire range of mp3 players. Would I bet money that they will? I don't know, that's a tough one. Who *really* knows what cool things Steve has up his sleeve?

Dec 10, 04 - 11:44 am Comment from: me

22 million!!! that is crazy. granted the margins will be a lot smaller on those. even at dirt cheap prices, i find it hard to believe that 22 million in 2 years.

That is a lot.

A LOT.

Dec 10, 04 - 11:47 am Comment from: RePlay

I wonder if Rio, Dell, and company are quaking even at the rumour. Seems the analysts have a lot of faith in the power of Mac.
cool smile

Dec 10, 04 - 12:23 pm Comment from: pkradd

The number, 22 million, is more then likely based on what others are currently selling in the way of flash-based MP3 Players at the present time. Extrapolating how Apple, with their marketing finesse in these matters, will do is a good guess. Of course, we're all assuming that there will be a flash player come Jan-Feb.

Dec 10, 04 - 12:39 pm Comment from: Road Warrior

Thanks for the background webmaster. I know the current state of politics makes for it to spill into this site.
I know I make such posts.
I know I make silly posts.
I know I make some insightful posts at some time.

I like the diversity, what can I say.

But overall, you MDN rocks.

You can delete my posts anytime.

Dec 10, 04 - 01:50 pm Comment from: ndelc

At this rate Apple is going to have to create a Flash based iPod even if they hadn't planned to, just to save the stock value. Seriously, shouldn't these analysts be able to be held liable for any damage they do by spreading rumors? People's lives can be seriously affected by what they say. If I had all my retirement savings wrapped up in Apple stock (OK, I know it would be stupid to do that, but I'm just making a point) and these idiots drove the price up with their rumors only to have it tank when they didn't come true, I'd go ballistic!

Oh, and fakie, when you start your own site you can say anything you want. Until then, beat it. We really don't care what you think about Bush.

Dec 10, 04 - 01:53 pm Comment from: Special Ed

Do you really think for one minute that Apples legal department would allow that "Mock up" to stay online for more that a few hours if it was even close to being true?

Dec 10, 04 - 02:37 pm Comment from: JadisOne

Don't forget that these firms still have access to a lot of privelegded information that no one else can get to because of their financial interests. Apple is a publicly traded company, so without exactly spelling out details, they usually have to give tidbits to make the major shareholders happy.

So, if one speculates and takes this assumption as truth, then one can conclude that at some point, Apple has shown plans for this device and someone who was not supposed to talk did.

Dec 10, 04 - 03:11 pm Comment from: Ryan

Oh, yeah??! Well, well, I predict that Apple will *90* million iPod flashes! No, make that 100 million! No, wait: Eleventy-hundred gabillion zillion jillion! Yeah, and it will be the most successful product ever! Bigger than sliced bread! Bigger than the flush toilet! Apple stock will be $1000 a share!

(Seriously, all this bandwagon-jumping by analysts is starting to make me ill...)

Dec 10, 04 - 04:10 pm Comment from: sounds good

Australian dollars don't go as far as their bigger American cousins and my music interests are modest. I would love a small and inexpensive keyring size iPod to tote around. So, there is one confirmed unit from their 22 million unit estimate.

Dec 11, 04 - 01:04 pm Comment from: twilightmoon

Road Warrior
But overall, you MDN rocks.

You can delete my posts anytime.


I second Road Warrior's statement! If any of my posts are deleted from now on, I will know why. So far I haven't seen any of them be deleted.

If I do in the future, I won't bitch or moan, I'll justs try to make sure my next post is worthwhile and is not deleted.

Rock on, MDN.

Dec 12, 04 - 02:55 pm Comment from: GroovNYC

No screen? What's the point? How do you know what you're playing? Sounds pretty dumb to me.

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